Discussion - Part Deux

andyb 2018-09-07 21:30:13 UTC #302

The 4 big money free agent acquisition decisions last winter have performed largely as expected and as a group have been a positive.

Santana - $20 million - 1.2 WAR (Baseball Reference) -0.9 dWAR. The most disappointing relative to cost. If he was neutral defensively it would be a 2 WAR player and remember WAR is worth $8-$10 million each.

Arrieta - $25 million - 3.1 WAR - Will end up with 180-190 innings (remember he signed late so that cost him getting to 200). He has been worth the contract and the question of what would have happened if we had to give 180 more innings to our younger or lesser starters like Lively is a little scary.

Hunter - $9 million - 1.4 WAR - A little inconsistent but he is also extremely durable. Stuff is a little better than the results so I am not sure we are looking at a decline next year.

Neshek - $7.75 million - 1.0 WAR - Would be worth more without the injury of course, but he has been almost as good as last year when healthy.

So we have 6.7 WAR so far for $62 million. As a whole the contracts have been worth it and probably are the difference between a .500 club and where we are now. The innings and durability from Arrieta and Hunter are really important also on an otherwise young staff. Even though I disagreed with the Santana signing, his dropoff is a little bad luck. But collectively one would have to evaluate Klentak's free agent performance here as pretty good. The drop in outfield defense (Hoskins) is still the worst part of the decision making around the signings, but the signings themselves have worked out fairly well.

I am not sure Klentak knew this team could compete, but I bet he thought (like many of us here) that it had a chance to compete and it would be worthwhile to figure out how to use some of our money to increase the odds of that happening.

andyb 2018-09-07 21:34:52 UTC #303

Article from Rosenthal on Trout and what they should do with him, especially in light of Ohtani's injury:

Rosenthal notes the Phillies as one of 3 teams that would be a good fit. He also notes from an unnamed exec a proposed trade to show what Trout might cost. Hint - it is expensive. Though if Von Hayes was worth 5 players, Mike Trout is certainly worth 6....

"The exec proposed the following package from the Braves: Outfielder Ender Inciarte and left-hander Sean Newcomb plus the Nos. 2, 3, 4 and 7 prospects, according to MLBPipeline.com, from a talent-rich system: right-handers Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson, third baseman Austin Riley and righty Touki Toussaint. Sounds like a lot? Of course it’s a lot — the Braves would be getting Mike Trout."

Florida_Sunshine 2018-09-07 22:32:41 UTC #304

Andy,

I also saw an article, not on philly.com, but am not able to remember where. It was in the last 3-4 days and I had intended to post it but got caught up in other things.

It basically said that Philly is likely where he wants to go so the Angels should consider trying to gauge his interest now in reupping with the Angels, and short of that, explore a trade with Philly.

The drumbeat is getting louder.

andyb 2018-09-07 22:42:47 UTC #305

I would just have to think about a deal like that Braves speculated offer. Think something like Williams, Eickhoff, Bohm, Medina, Haseley, Romero. (keeping our young starters in the current rotation, Sixto, Ortiz, and Moniak). It is just a whole lot to offer. Now if we could start by dealing more redundant young vets (Herrera, Franco, Eickhoff, Suarez, De Los Santos) I might get more interested, but I am guessing it will be much more than that.

Florida_Sunshine 2018-09-07 22:47:22 UTC #306

And what if you were trading something like that for 2 years of Trout prior to free agency?

andyb 2018-09-07 22:56:24 UTC #307

That is why it is so expensive. The strength of this team is our depth in young starting pitching (4 pitchers 26 or under in the rotation, Sanchez and Medina a year or two away). If we traded a couple of those pitchers (not Nola) and then had some injuries starting pitching could become a weakness.

Trading 6 good players for Trout is a massive role of the dice. It could mean we would be one of the favorites to win the World Series immediately - and at the same time be a sign that the franchise might be in some trouble in 3 or 4 years since we would have no depth of talent and would be forced into the free agent market even more.

I did not say I would not do the deal. Just need to think about it. It would sure be nice to have hit on some of our recent number ones before making that decision. It is also part of why I keep advocating that the team spend the international max each year. When we spend a million or two below that max, we are not getting a prospect or two that could contribute to deals like this. Every piece of talent matters.

allentown 2018-09-08 00:54:43 UTC #308

Trout is worth trading for, because he is the one future FA we know to be interested in coming to Philly and he should be re-signable.This is where honest, highly proficient, self-scouting is paramount. We know our farm best. How good are these 6 guys realistically going to be? It also depends upon the self-scouting and medical evaluations of the guys not in the trade. To trade Medina and Romero, the team has to have a high degree of confidence that Sixto will return to health without surgery, as Nola did, and that Delossantos can be a future member of the starting rotation. Trout replaces Williams, so no problem there. Eickhoff doesn't seem a big loss. What does the team think Haseley and Bohm are likely to become? If they don't think Bohm can play 3B, then trading him not a big deal; if they are high on Franco, trading Bohm not as big a deal. They should be able to make an accurate judgment whether Moniak or Haseley has the better career ahead of him, and keep the one they think highest of.

andyb 2018-09-08 01:00:50 UTC #309

Knapp is back BTW. 10-day rule so this is the first day he was eligible. Was a little nervous the other day when Alfaro got hit as Ramos was pinch hitting.

mdougherty12 2018-09-08 23:37:14 UTC #310

Roman Quinn banged up again:

mdougherty12 2018-09-09 02:08:11 UTC #311

Quinn has a broken pinky toe:

andyb 2018-09-09 03:35:23 UTC #312

We were all joking, but can he play in bubble wrap?

ButlerBulldog 2018-09-09 03:55:31 UTC #313

Kapler would use a different type of bubble wrap each game and increase the chance of further injury.

LoneStarPhan 2018-09-09 05:00:33 UTC #314

It does seem incredibly like Quinn cannot avoid getting hurt. Shut him down and hope he comes out healthy for spring training. He has shown that he is good enough to make the team if not hurt.

tom81 2018-09-09 10:13:58 UTC #315

There is no need to shut Quinn down. There is no risk of further injury it is just a matter of the swelling needs to go down so it isn’t as painful. Playing now or not will have no impact on his availability for spring training.

nycphils 2018-09-09 13:53:38 UTC #316

He’s 25. What would they be protecting him for? If he can take the pain, run him out there and see what he can contribute. If he can’t stay on the field, he’s not worth much.

allentown 2018-09-09 16:59:48 UTC #317

Perhaps he should ware a foot/ankle guard. I think all of this 'Quinn is injury prone' is code for "Quinn refuses to play through injuries." What is the right approach? How much has Hernandez' soldiering on actually helped the team? Quinn got hit in the foot -- it hurts and it swelled up. This happens to a lot of players. It doesn't make him injury prone. Losing a lot of time to an awkward slide or an oblique or hamstring pull is a different story.

nycphils 2018-09-09 18:43:10 UTC #318

Everyone always wants to be holier than thou. I’m not accusing him of being soft...a torn Achilles, torn hamstring, broken toe...these aren’t faking or being soft and not playing through pain. Its simply that he’s always injured, for what ever reason or luck. If he was 22, saving him and trying to hope next year will be different makes sense. But next year he’s 26. He’s in what should be his prime, especially for a speed player. He’s got to start doing it, so if he can play, he should and let’s see what happens.

phillychuck 2018-09-09 19:29:16 UTC #319

You can have a custom shoe made to play with a broken pinky toe. I had a basketball teammate who did that for a whole season his senior year, and averaged 24 points/game. If Quinn's injury is similar I expect to see him back.

LoneStarPhan 2018-09-10 01:10:50 UTC #320

Hoskins had a home run Friday, going 1 for 4. I hoped it was a sign he was coming around. It proved to be so, with Hoskins going 2 for 4 in each of the next two games in the series, and he had a home run in each game. Hoskins goes 5 for 12 with 3 home runs in the series with the Mets, but the Phillies lose the games Saturday and Sunday.

I have nothing against Santana, but he has not been quite as good as we expected with the bat. However, it seems that his signing set in motion changes to the lineup that have now proven to be detrimental to the defense. First, Santana has been okay at first, but not great. Hoskins has been a liability in left. Williams in right is not good enough. Throw in the infield shuffle of bad fielders and the defense has been below unacceptable. Something has to change if they are ever going to be a serious contender.

For this season, 20 games remain.
Record is now 74-68

If the Phillies play at the pace they have over the past 31 games, they finish with 7 more wins, a record of 81-81.

If they can manage to win at the same pace they have over the first 142 games, they finish with 10.4 more wins. If they can play .500 and win 10 of the 20 remaining games, they finish with 84 wins. 84-78 would be a record that we probably would have been fine with at the start of the season. Nevertheless, we cannot be happy with the play over the past 31 games (11-20).

ButlerBulldog 2018-09-10 02:13:21 UTC #321

I like Santana, too, but he’s not the right fit for this team. Hoskins should be the first baseman in 2019, and another outfielder should be signed to play whichever corner spot isn’t taken by Williams. Quinn can be the fourth outfielder. Herrera is Herrera.

Kingery is this team’s best defensive infielder, though he hasn’t shown near enough with the bat to deserve more than a platoon/supersub role. I’d like to see him platoon with Hernandez at 2B, with Machado playing shortstop. I’m not sold on Franco returning as the starting third baseman. Cabrera can leave yesterday. If Crawford has a good spring, he should be used much as Kingery is now and fill in if players are injured or need a day off.

Edit: I wouldn’t mind seeing a lineup like this on Opening Day next season:

2B — Hernandez
SS — Machado
CF — Herrera
1B — Hoskins
LF — Williams
C — Ramos
RF — Bradley Jr.
3B — Franco
P — Nola