Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

[David_Criss]

he 25 roster remains unsettled, the veteran catchers are giving Knapp the job, but Coughlan, Nava, Stassi refuse to eliminate themselves.And I'm not sure what the back of the bullpen looks like at this point.

Part of me wants to see them carry both Hanigan and Knapp or trade Knapp, but this Spring may have hurt his value. If Coghlan, Nava and Stassi make the team, who is removed from the 40-man? I still question why Valentin was protected. If they carry 12-pitchers Only 2 of Garcia, Rodriquez, Morgan, Burnet, Mariot and Murray - 3 of whom are not on the 40-man.

It will be interesting to see who they decide the best 25 players are.

[VoteForKalas]

I'm with you on that. He seemed a desperate dumpster dive in the mode of the old Phillies, to give the manager his craved veteran. It sours me further on our manager when he says he wants a set lineup with Kendrick starting virtually every day. Kendrick will be a 33 year old, not great defensive LF, trying to bounce back from a sub-,700 OPS season. The problem with a bounce back is if he returns to his prior three seasons, we can only look forward to a .750 OPS, which is meh. One has to go all the way back to 2011 to find a year in which he barely got his OPS above .800. Much better to play the kids. Kendrick isn't a guy who gets you a meaningful prospect at the trade deadline. He's a stopgap to make the manager feel better. Really, as bad as he is, I'd rather lose another game or two going with just about any of our kids. Now the manager wants to go with Kendrick and Saunders in the corners as regulars, which leaves Altherr and Quinn blocked. It's the sort of signing I really dislike and associate way too much with losing Phillies teams.

It is another test case to see how much, if any, the Phillies philosophy and approaches to talent evaluation, development and roster management have really "changed".

The prospects should consistently get every chance to play and succeed throughout the roster. If they don't, then I think it is perfectly logical to ask questions about what is going on.

[julio]

The prospects should consistently get every chance to play and succeed throughout the roster. If they don't, then I think it is perfectly logical to ask questions about what is going on.

I agree with this.

That said, if management decides to start Roman Quinn in AAA, I would not agree that this represents his being "blocked" by Howie Kendrick, nor that this means he's not "consistently getting every chance to play and succeed."

It's one thing if management makes an indefensible decision. It's another entirely if management makes a reasonable decision, with which some fans happen to disagree. I trust we'll be able to tell the difference.

[allentown]

I can agree with that. Altherr, however, will be blocked.

[zambonir]

Altherr is the only prospect who is really being blocked, unless Knapp doesn't make the team. Of course, several starting pitchers are being blocked. But if one is okay with the idea that it is good to have a couple of veteran pitchers to stabilize the rotation, buy time for younger/injured players, and help the rest of the roster develop in a more positive environment (by putting the team in a position to win more games), the same goes for position players (and a back-up catcher) in my book. If Quinn and Altherr hadn't been hurt last year and Williams had been ready Saunders and Kendrick wouldn't be here (certainly both of them wouldn't be).

So sure, it's unfair to Altherr that he is going to have to prove himself in a back-up role, and that he can't even platoon with Kendrick. But the only scenario where any young Phillies player is kept out in favor of a veteran for longer than 2-3 months if is Kendrick and Saunders are having all-star season and the Phillies are playing .600 ball. And even then, I think Klentak would be willing to trade Kendrick.

[julio]

Altherr, however, will be blocked.

This remains to be seen. Altherr may be blocked, if he really loses substantial playing time to an inferior player. You choose to criticize management in advance; I do not.

[Austinfan]

Altherr and Nola were question marks this offseason, it would have been irresponsible for the FO not to explore veteran alternatives.
Quinn simply hasn't had enough PA, while he's talented, if you watch him hit, he overswings and could use a half to full season at AAA ball.

They owe nothing to Kendrick, they gave up nothing of value to obtain him, and if he doesn't produce he'll be headed to the bench, if he does, he's July trade bait.
Same with Saunders, Hellickson and Buchholtz.

If Altherr keeps hitting, he'll work his way into the lineup, power, speed and great defense is hard to keep on the bench.
I suspect they don't want to rush him, wrist injuries are notorious for taking long to heal 100%, so being conservative the first half of the season is not a bad thing.
The young pitchers will start every five days at Lehigh where they can work on their mechanics and secondary pitches without big league pressure - when they're ready to come up it'll be obvious - not by getting AAA hitters out (Lively did that last year) but HOW they get them out.

My suspicion is this team will look very differently in August than it will in April, and the whole point of this season is really to get the young players ready for 2018.

And in MHO, there are advantages to both players and the team spending more time in AAA ball, players get to work on skills in a low pressure environment where they can focus on skills rather than outcomes (i.e. hang a breaking pitch or signal a changeup and not lose sleep over 450 HRs), which can pay off down the road (it's hard to experiment with a new stance or grip in the majors), while the team doesn't start the clock ticking until the player is developed enough to be a positive WAR player.

The Show is not where a young player should learn his craft, it's where he should practice his craft once learned.

[BostonRoss]

It seems to me that there is a lot of assumption in some posts about what management is thinking, based mainly on what their predecessors did (and even that is exaggerated). It seems quite possible to me that maybe the people who are experts at this and have a lot more information about the players may be making decisions based on the what is best thing for the team, now and in the future, and perhaps they are even right some of the time. They will make some mistakes, but they may be right about the readiness (or lack thereof) of some of the youngsters, and maybe even about the value of Howie Kendrick. Personally, I don't see much value to acquiring or keeping Kendrick either, especially as a left fielder, but it was only two years ago that he was traded for a then healthy Andrew Heaney. In any case, I hope they are not making decisions about people with 10-year track records based on a handful of spring games.

[Les229]

Who gets to decide what is indefensible and reasonable? I think this year is the last of the current rebuilding years. Anything less than breaking even for the year is failure.

[julio]

Les229 asked:

Who gets to decide what is indefensible and reasonable?

In response to my comment:

It's one thing if management makes an indefensible decision. It's another entirely if management makes a reasonable decision, with which some fans happen to disagree.

I can only refer you to the last part of my comment:

I trust we'll be able to tell the difference.

Which is to say...as far as comments on this board are concerned... all of us who read these comments. If a poster criticizes a decision he/she regards as indefensible, and several other posters are able to rebut that criticism, I think it will generally be obvious. And that's what the discussion should be: Poster A objects to Roman Quinn being optioned to AAA; Posters B thru N point out reasons why the option is a reasonable (although not necessarily the only reasonable!) decision to make. The decision is discussed - not just criticized/complained about.

Les229 also commented:

I think this year is the last of the current rebuilding years. Anything less than breaking even for the year is failure.

I'm not sure I follow the logic here. I understand that Les (and all of us!) would like 2017 to be "the last of the current rebuilding years"; e.g., the roster is fully rebuilt by the end of this season. I'm not sure that's achievable, given where our prospects are; 2019 may be a more reasonable target for competitiveness. Even if a "completed" rebuild is achieved by the end of the 2017 season, I'm not sure it necessarily results in, or requires a 2017 record of 81-81 or better; teams have gone from sub-.500 records to contention in one winter (see the 2014 vs. 2015 Chicago Cubs for the most recent example).

[zambonir]

That goal the Phillies have seemingly set for themselves of going .500 could definitely backfire on them with a portion of the fan base. We all know they outperformed their run differential last year (whether there were good, demonstrable reasons for that or not) and most projections (be they statistical or sports book) for this season are what, 72-75?

The way Klentak talks about using the Royals and the Cubs as models, I still don't think he is in a huge hurry, but as julio noted, they could also accelerate suddenly. If so, however, I suspect that is gonna be more about two-three players (or more) on the 2018 team who aren't in the organization now.

[Les229]

just feel that they have had enough time. To my way of thinking, Nola was the first draft that was part of this rebuilding, he is in the bigs. Eichkhoff and Velasquez were the early trades. I think it is time to stop making excuses and start to hold people accountable. I am not advocating changing the front office, but I am saying that it is time to start to let them feel the pressure. Although I was after Amaro's hide ever since sent Pence to the Giants, I have been relatively quiet during this rebuild. I just think with their resources, they have had enough time that we should be seeing some results.

[BostonRoss]

Hearing about the Pence trade again reminded me of something funny I heard in Port Charlotte. A Phillies fan sitting near me in how much he liked Tommy Joseph. A few minutes later, someone walked by wearing a Pence shirt, and the fan said, "They never should have traded Pence."

[andyb]

Have the Phillies ever expressly said their goal was to be a .500 club this year? I am not sure I have heard it expressed that way. It has been more about adding veterans to fill holes in the roster while also allowing young players to develop. I think they hope to be able to play .500 ball if the young players develop, but have not exactly set those expectations.

They have also been pretty clear in pointing to 2018 and 2019 as more the time for larger free agency expenditures. 1-year contracts to second tier veterans is really not sending that "need to be .500 this year" signal.

I think most here are OK with that strategy. I am. If the free agent market had been deeper this year I might have dipped a larger toe in, but it wasn't. The depth of the classes in 2018 and 2019 should be much better.

[phillychuck]

Playing .500 ball this season really rests on the shoulders of two players (primarily)--Hellickson and Buchholz. If Hellickson and Buchholz pitch up to their personal near-best levels, this team will be competitive. Good Hellickson, good Buchholz, Nola, Eichoff, Velasquez is a top-flight rotation, we have a decent pen, and while we remain offensively challenged, we should be able to scratch out enough runs to be competitive, and tune the lineup as the year goes on to generate some offensive improvement.

I honestly don't expect both the vets to pitch well, but stranger things have happened.

Imagine how excited we'd be if we had a real left fielder who could hit on the roster instead of Kendrick. Ignoring the steroid and personality issues, Ryan Braun would be an awesome fit for this lineup. If we could just transplant his bat into Kendrick I'd be pretty stoked for 2017.

[BostonRoss]

It's hard to imagine the Phillies publicly declaring a goal of playing .500 ball before the season starts. Maybe that's internal target, maybe not, but publicly they have to say they will be hoping things break right and they are competitive, no?

[donaldorc]

I honestly don't expect both the vets to pitch well, but stranger things have happened.

I don't expect them to pitch well either. I'd rather see Eflin pitching than either of those two.

[donaldorc]

It's hard to imagine the Phillies publicly declaring a goal of playing .500 ball before the season starts. Maybe that's internal target, maybe not, but publicly they have to say they will be hoping things break right and they are competitive, no?

Mackanin has publicly stated that he wants the team to play .500.

His own modest goal is just to play .500 ball until August.

Ford: Phillies trying to get to .500, then see what happens

[andyb]

These posts were just referencing some goal the Phillies supposedly have that I did not think they ever formally stated. In GM-speak of course they want to get better and it would be nice to play .500 ball. I just don't think they have ever set these expectations publicly.

I think they have maybe a 20%-30% chance of playing .500 ball. And a 20%-30% change of winning less than 70 games if things break poorly. I do think that there is more improvement out there than some projections note and it might be on the defensive side where arguably we could get better at multiple positions:

C - Alfaro could be better than Rupp
1B - Joseph is better than Howard
Middle infield - Crawford might not be better than Galvis, but Galvis playing some 2B is likely better than Cesar
Outfield - There will be fewer Ruf-like appearances, and the more we integrate Altherr and Williams the better we will get defensively.

[andyb]

That is phrased in terms of a modest goal. It is less like they "expect" to play .500 ball and heads will roll if they don't. A manager or a GM really can't say they expect to be worse or mediocre before the season. They do want to sell tickets (and there is nothing wrong with that).