Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

[tom81]

So let the young OFs play on a regular basis in Lehigh, let the young pitchers mature in Lehigh and Reading.

This is part of the problem IMO, there are more OF's that need to play on a regular basis at Lehigh than slots. If Quinn starts there with Williams and Cozens then Goeddel doesn't get the AB he needs for the second year in a row. I'd start Quinn in Philly and if he struggles in his first month swap him with Williams in Lehigh or Altherr as the 4th OF. Kendrick should be traded or kept as a utility player. He is not good enough to be a starter.

[BtownFan]

Saunders staying would probably depend more on Williams than either Quinn or Altherr, though there is a possibility both he and Kendrick are gone by the trade deadline.

I link Saunders more to the development of Dylan Cozens than any of the three you mention here. Not only his lefty bat but his power makes more equivalent. As long as El Torito remains in the outfield maxing out at 12 HRs, as long as 2B and SS are expected to yield no more than 25 HRs, and 1B and 3B are expected to produce just 55 HRs between them, more production will have to come from the outfield corners.unless the team average on base percentage exceeds .320. I see Quinn as a replacement for Odubel only, and either Altherr or Williams replacing Kendrick.

[andyb]

Getting Quinn and Crawford and even Williams up to the majors relatively quickly is decidedly not rushing them at all. They have all played in the majors or AAA already and 2 of the 3 have significant polish for young players (including Quinn in that - he has a pretty good idea of how to use his skills and control the strike zone for a young player).

Rushing a kid would be promoting them long before they are ready. Often to save money. In a tiny number of cases like the Cubs with Russell and the Indians with Lindor you are aggressive with a young (but very good) prospect to help a team compete. The Phillies do not fit that category at all.

We do want the young players to play, however. And for that to happen you need to clear space for them and for Quinn, Crawford, and Williams that time might be this year, either in a couple of months or mid-season. It would not have been rushing Crawford or Quinn for them to start on the major league roster now because they are probably as good as Galvis and Kendrick already and likely to get much better. The Phillies chose not to be aggressive with them, but if they start off well at AAA the Phillies almost have a duty to get them up because they will be part of the core potentially when this team is good.

[andyb]

I link Saunders more to the development of Dylan Cozens than any of the three you mention here. Not only his lefty bat but his power makes more equivalent. As long as El Torito remains in the outfield maxing out at 12 HRs, as long as 2B and SS are expected to yield no more than 25 HRs, and 1B and 3B are expected to produce just 55 HRs between them, more production will have to come from the outfield corners.unless the team average on base percentage exceeds .320. I see Quinn as a replacement for Odubel only, and either Altherr or Williams replacing Kendrick.

That could be true. Certainly Williams and Cozens can be lumped together. I just think that there is probably a 50% chance Williams will be ready in July and maybe only a 25% chance for Cozens. As for long term, I would not limit Quinn to CF even though he is most valuable there. As I have said before, he could be a 4 WAR player with a 700 OPS. Altherr is a notch below that because he adds less value on the basepaths (defense is a wash with Quinn having more range and Altherr more arm). I have no problem letting them play and earning jobs. Cozens could always be in the mix at 1B too on a flexible roster (remember both Joseph and Hoskins are right handed).

I don't want to trade Herrera but if we have more than 3 good young OF he does have huge value with his underpriced contract.

[andyb]

Gelb's latest on roster decisions.

Predicting the Phillies roster, Version 2.0

Some surprises here. He goes with Valentin and Coghlan for the 2 last spots (after Blanco, Knapp, and Altherr). Valentin clearly is to avoid a second 4--man rule. He also has Luis Garcia on the pitching side though I could see Morgan there too. The main point there is that no non-roster pitcher has really pitched well enough to earn a spot (with the tie always going to someone on the 40-man).

I doubt they go with Valentin but I suppose that is possible. Getting down to 1 40-man move makes sense. I would also throw out one other scenario - has Eflin even pitched yet? I wonder if they are considering putting him on the 60-day DL. DL moves are valid 6 days before opening day. And a 20-day rehab stint could be used at the end of the 60-day period. Thus Eflin might only have to wait about a month after the minor league season started to begin pitching and could essentially do his spring training outings in extended. Something worth thinking about from a pitcher who is not likely to be ready for the AAA rotation anyway at the beginning of the season. He could start his rehab stint around the 2nd or 3rd week of May.

[Austinfan]

Valentin should start at 2B at Lehigh, Kingery at Reading. Kingery didn't earn a promotion last year, so why rush him?
Williams - Quinn - Cozens, with Goeddel getting starts against some LH and some time at 3B (makes him more valuable if he can sub at 3B).
Perkins should be traded or released if he doesn't make the ML team.
Pullin is probably headed back to AA where he'll prove last season wasn't a fluke and be the first promotion to Lehigh.

There is no need to rush young players, it starts the clock ticking, so why do so when they're still learning?
In AAA ball they'll see plenty of junk, and that's the key to being ready in the majors, recognizing and hitting (or laying off) off speed pitches.
And fielding reps are the same at AAA or the majors.

Altherr is a better fielder in RF than Quinn, where his instincts are more valuable than pure speed.
Quinn should eventually be the better CF as he gets experience.

Altherr will not be blocked by Kendrick, if Kendrick doesn't hit, he'll get acquainted with the bench, if he does hit, he'll be prime July trade bait.
If Altherr hits, he work his way into a starting job because of his plus fielding skills.
There's just no rush this year, come next season the veterans will be gone and the kids will be competing with each other.

Knapp - Stassi - Blanco - Altherr - Coughlan/Nava will be the bench.

[andyb]

Promoting young players when they are ready is not rushing them. Valentin looks like he probably is only a utility infielder. If the team decides that he is fine in that role, I am fine with promoting him to save a 40-man roster spot. The arbitration clock on someone like Valentin is really pretty meaningless as he never projects to make much money anyway. One could easily promote Valentin and leave Kingery in AA.

And where is the evidence that Altherr is better defensively than Quinn. They are both good with different strengths Altherr graded less well in the advanced metrics last year compared to in 2015. There is little advanced data on Quinn though we can all see the range. I am really not sure who is better in a corner spot. Quinn is probably better in CF but in the corners it is debatable.

[julio]

Promoting young players when they are ready is not rushing them. Valentin looks like he probably is only a utility infielder. If the team decides that he is fine in that role, I am fine with promoting him to save a 40-man roster spot.

If he can handle shortstop as a backup, this could work; he's started 78 games at SS in the minors, so it appears that he can.

You've got a five-man bench (given seven relief pitchers). Catcher #2 (Knapp), shortstop #2 (Valentin), outfielder #4 (Altherr), two others. If Andres Blanco is one of those two, then you have one slot for Stassi/Nava/Coghlan/3rd catcher - and you have to clear one 40-man roster spot for whoever from that group they choose.

[andyb]

Valentin played 36 games in AAA but then 44 more in Puerto Rico (where the quality of play is improving a bit).

The team kind of knows what he is. He is a middle infielder with a tiny bit of speed and power but not really enough of either. Defense that is decent but not great, but at least with an arm where he could handle SS.

People focus too much on stats where he is the same age as Kingery and a level ahead of him. Kingery grades out better tool-wise and potential-wise. He is simply a better athlete. Sometimes you know what a player is and Valentin with his major league pedigree really is not a raw player in any aspect.

Now I generally do not like carrying 2 middle infielders on the bench when you really do not have to do defensive substitutions that often. But the advantage here is that you save a 40-man spot and give a prospect like Goeddel an extra year. That has value.

I think the biggest surprise though (and it has been alluded to for the past couple of weeks), is that Luis Garcia has made some adjustments and is pitching well. We all assumed he was the logical first cut off the 40.
--
Another alternative they might be considering is 8 relievers. Keep both Garcia and Morgan and it accomplishes the same 40-man goal. Bench of Knapp, Blanco, Altherr, and TBD (Coghlan or Stassi). Put Eflin on the 60-day DL and you lose nobody.

[Les229]

Thanks

[zambonir]

This is part of the problem IMO, there are more OF's that need to play on a regular basis at Lehigh than slots. If Quinn starts there with Williams and Cozens then Goeddel doesn't get the AB he needs for the second year in a row. I'd start Quinn in Philly and if he struggles in his first month swap him with Williams in Lehigh or Altherr as the 4th OF. Kendrick should be traded or kept as a utility player. He is not good enough to be a starter.

If the Phillies think Quinn needs to be in AAA, they shouldn't change that plan just to accomodate a less important player. Goedell has simply become an afterthought if all the other OFs pan out, but we'll see.

And I think we've reached the point where we are actually underrating Kendrick. He was still a positive WAR player last year, still would have been third on the team in OBP (among the starters). It is not unreasonable to think he can get back to hitting .280, .750 OPS and even if he doesn't the younger players won't necessarily outperform him in the short-term. While Altherr has youth and defense on his side, he still has to prove he is not a .600 OPS player too.

Of course if the team was truly only rebuilding and developing that wouldn't matter but they made an aggressive decision to fill out the roster with more experience, on the pitching side as well, to try to win more games this year. And whether we agree or not, they clearly think Quinn needs to be in AAA and Altherr is not ready to start (remember, it often takes a full year to go from "no longer injured" to "fully recovered"). The spring training stats - both Kendrick's bad ones and other people's good ones - are largely meaningless.

[Philsmania]

Regardless of whether or not he makes the big club (probably doubtful), it's great to see N.Williams having a great spring and, maybe, get his trajectory back in an upward direction.

[Philsmania]

So let the young OFs play on a regular basis in Lehigh, let the young pitchers mature in Lehigh and Reading.

This is part of the problem IMO, there are more OF's that need to play on a regular basis at Lehigh than slots. If Quinn starts there with Williams and Cozens then Goeddel doesn't get the AB he needs for the second year in a row. I'd start Quinn in Philly and if he struggles in his first month swap him with Williams in Lehigh or Altherr as the 4th OF. Kendrick should be traded or kept as a utility player. He is not good enough to be a starter.

Goeddel does seem to be a forgotten man at this point. If he can play some third again that may be the solution.

[zambonir]

The writers keep nominating Goeddel (along with Garcia though now he looks good in ST) as the most likely first man off the 40.

I thought Mackanin's worst moment as manager last year was when he gave up on Goeddel, though maybe that came from above (i.e., the GM wanted to evaluate Asche and was still backing Bourjos). Given he can't start in AAA either I'm surprised he wasn't more of a candidate to just be on the major league bench. I think they figure he will just have to suck up for the first half of the season and there will be ABs for him eventually (as soon as May, if Quinn's on fast track).

[tom81]

I really don't buy the conventional wisdom that Quinn has to start in AAA, especially given Kendricks .358 OPS so far this spring.

[LoneStarPhan]

Spring numbers mean little for vets who already are inked in on the roster going north. Kendrick is the starter in left opening the season. That might change latter in the season.

[tom81]

We shall see in 2.5 weeks.

[DurhamBull]

The writers keep nominating Goeddel (along with Garcia though now he looks good in ST) as the most likely first man off the 40.

I thought Mackanin's worst moment as manager last year was when he gave up on Goeddel, though maybe that came from above (i.e., the GM wanted to evaluate Asche and was still backing Bourjos). Given he can't start in AAA either I'm surprised he wasn't more of a candidate to just be on the major league bench. I think they figure he will just have to suck up for the first half of the season and there will be ABs for him eventually (as soon as May, if Quinn's on fast track).

I don't think Mackanin gave up on Goeddel. He got 200+ AB last year and hit under .200. He got some playing time and wasn't able to earn his way into more of it. To be fair to Goeddel, I think most people felt he'd be better off in AAA but he had to stay on the 25-man as a Rule 5 pick, so Mackanin threw him out there to see what he could do against major league pitching.

I agree with your speculation about giving Asche and others a shot. I think the Phils were hoping that Asche or another one of their flawed OFs would suddenly blossom, or at least get hot for a couple of months.

[zambonir]

We shall see in 2.5 weeks.

If he can hit, or if he's gonna start?

I don't think Mackanin gave up on Goeddel. He got 200+ AB last year and hit under .200. He got some playing time and wasn't able to earn his way into more of it.

Hard not to cherry pick either way w/o doing a deeper dive, but Goedell started 22 games in May and put up a .794 OPS. Between May 17 and June 6 his overall OPS rose from .549 to .690. So it seemed to me that when he got playing time, he showed signs of turning the corner, but the minute he showed signs of fading (in a mere five-six starts) they put him on ice again. He wasn't good, but he never got another chance, and the players who did weren't good either.

Mackanin was also pretty coarse about him (and I'm someone who doesn't really mind Mackanin's coarseness). If memory serves he was like, "why should I?" when someone asked him if he might play Goedell more late in the season. I get that he was in over his head and they were just trying to hide him, but if he ends up on waivers or buried/struggling in AAA this year it will seem to me that they should have played him more last year. He only had 65 PAs in the second half of last season.

[tom81]

We shall see in 2.5 weeks.

If he can hit, or if he's gonna start?

We shall see if Quinn makes the opening day roster in 2.5 weeks which will imply some serious playing time if not the starter. They may feel compelled to have Kendrick as the "opening day starter" but I think Quinn makes the roster and gets most of the LF playing time. I think the rest of the bench will be Altherr, Blanco, Nava & Knapp but I wouldn't be surprised if Knapp doesn't make it and one of the Vet catchers does makes it. I also think Stassi has an outside chance of taking Nava's spot but I think he starts the year in LV to get reps in LF.

With the 10 day DL I don't think Valentin makes it, Caesar can slide over for a game and Valentin or Crawford could join the team the next day. Coghlan looks toast to me. The only way I see him making the team is if they trade Kendrick and want another OF that can play 2B.