Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

[bkeich]

I dont agree PC. Truth is that if Hellickson and Buchholz pitch well they will only make 20 starts for the Phils because (hopefully) they will be traded. Add Kendrick and Saunders to this list, they are just on the team to showcase their skills so we can get prospects for them. I only hope for 1/2 a season from them, if we get a great deal more than they have by definition failed. The teams record, while certainly influenced by these guys, will be driven by the next group of players as they will get the majority of the PAs and Games Started.

I think the hope for .500 is in the next group of players. Nola, Eickhoff, Franco, Joseph, Herrera, Hernandez, Crawford and Rupp. These are the guys that must be successful this year for us to get to .500. Add in 1-2 others that are not currently considered "core", much as Hernandez and Rupp stepped forward last year and Herrera the year before. These are the players that are going to drive the team to failure or success in the short term, because they will be the ones getting 30+ starts and 600+ PAs.

To me the driving force that will make this team win or lose is not at the top as you have stated, but really in these middle guys that will drive wins or losses this season.

[bkeich]

And also keep in mind that Altherr starts any time any OF is hurt or has a day off, and potentially if Hernandez is out (Kendrick moving to 2B) and possibly if Joseph is out (a whole slew of possible ways to fill 1B, including Saunders).

If healthy I expect Altherr to have the OPPORTUNITY to get 400-600 PAs easily. Now whether he "claims" this plate appearances or loses them to another "backup" is to be determined.

[andyb]

And also keep in mind that Altherr starts any time any OF is hurt or has a day off, and potentially if Hernandez is out (Kendrick moving to 2B) and possibly if Joseph is out (a whole slew of possible ways to fill 1B, including Saunders).

There has always been some logic of having Saunders play some 1B potentially rather than someone like Knapp or Blanco. He has the platoon advantage opposite of Joseph and the potential OF replacement (Altherr) is better than Knapp or Blanco most likely.

[zambonir]

1B depends if Stassi makes the team. I'll be surprised if Kendrick plays 2B, except maybe in a double-switch pinch. You've got Blanco and Coghlan. Even Galvis, if they wanted to play Blanco at SS (though that would probably just get the media all worked up).

I guess I am skeptical that Mackanin is going to platoon his GM's prize free agent RF the same way others are skeptical that Kendrick can be moved from the line-up. But, data-conscious teams do tend to be more platoon-friendly, and I do think they want Altherr to play.

[julio]

Todd Zolecki has some information about opt-out dates for Coghlan, Nava and Hanigan:

Phillies Howie Kendrick makes start at 2B

The relevant passage:

Andrew Knapp is competing with non-roster invitees Ryan Hanigan and Bryan Holaday to be the backup catcher. Infielder Jesmuel Valentin and non-roster invitees Brock Stassi, Chris Coghlan and Daniel Nava seem to be competing for the final two bench jobs. If Coghlan is not on the Major League roster by Sunday, he must be released upon request or placed on the roster within 48 hours.

Hanigan has the same stipulation, but it must happen by March 28. Nava must be placed on the 25-man roster by June 15 or he must be released if he has a spot on another team's 25-man roster.

[zambonir]

Good find julio. Hard to know what they are really thinking, but actually seems pretty simple then:

Coghlan is on the team (which everyone thought, and that early opt-out pretty much suggested).

Hanigan is either making the team or getting moved/given his release.

Holaday can go to AAA or be released.

Nava will definitely go to AAA for a while.

But what we still don't know is how they will make room on the 40, for anyone besides Knapp or Valentin.

Meanwhile, almost doesn't belong in ST thread. Only mentions the two pitchers, not Kendrick or Saunders.

Way-too-early guide to the MLB trade deadline: Sellers' edition

[BostonRoss]

If Nava went to AAA, where would he play?

[VoteForKalas]

To me the rebuild still didn't start until last year. Yes, Amaro and Gillick began the process. But even last year Klentak still didn't have his front office overhaul in place. The real signal will be when he hires a new manager or if he gives Mackanin an extension through 2019.

Thank you. This needs to be re-stated as many seem to forget how long the organization delayed the necessary rebuild in order to "stay competitive" (translation: refuse to admit reality so the money kept flowing in for as long as possible).

Finally, reality hit them over the head so hard they could not ignore it any further and they started to act, but as you say it was really only recently that they were fully committed to doing what was needed.

[andyb]

While one can argue about 2014, one cannot say the Phillies rebuild was not going on in 2015. That year (or before the season) featured trades of Hamels, Rollins, and Utley among others. The rebuild started before Klentak got here and that is pretty indisputable. Even the beginnings of an analytics department had started by that time. MacPhail was on board in mid-2015 as well, before Klentak. Just because they did not do everything at once does not mean the rebuild had not started and they were not fully committed to it.

[Austinfan]

I'd say the rebuild started in the winter of 2014-15 when they traded
Bastardo for Rodriguez
Rollins for Windle and Eflin
Picked Herrera in the Rule 5 draft
Byrd for Lively
July 2015:
Hamels & Diekman for Eickhoff, Williams, Alfaro, Thompson & Asher
Revere for Cordero & Tirado
Utley for Richy & Sweeney
Winter 2015
Giles & Arauz for Velasquez, Appel, Eshelman & Arauz

Because they waited two years, they got nothing for Utley, and only Eflin for Rollins. Lee broke down.

[julio]

While one can argue about 2014,

"Challenge accepted!"

[andyb]

It was not much be we did draft Nola and trade Roberto Hernandez (for Arano and Valentin) in 2014. And stopped trading prospects even if we signed some mediocre vets. It was definitely half hearted in 2014 but the club probably started rebuilding then.

Our issues in 2014 was we really did not have many young players and prospects worth playing. They probably got the timing on the Hamels deal correct, but agree with AF that Rollins and Utley could have been dealt sooner.

[allentown]

Yes, 2014 was a very atypical draft. Haven't had one quite like that (so college heavy) since, I guess, the Giles as GM days and immediately returned to more of a H.S. focus. I wouldn't say the rebuild started in 2014, but the team definitely changed strategy and shifted into neutral, more balance operations that year. In 2013 they were still in win it now and we don't really care much about the future mode.

[zambonir]

If Nava went to AAA, where would he play?

He's a bench player in the majors and he'd be a bench player in the minors. That's what over-30 journeymen signed for minor league depth are for. I mean, there may be no reason for the Phillies to keep him, especially given the 40-man issue, 'cause he wouldn't be easy to call up and you already have Quinn. But if he doesn't have another offer & they want the depth, easy enough to stash him.

[zambonir]

While one can argue about 2014, one cannot say the Phillies rebuild was not going on in 2015. That year (or before the season) featured trades of Hamels, Rollins, and Utley among others. The rebuild started before Klentak got here and that is pretty indisputable. Even the beginnings of an analytics department had started by that time. MacPhail was on board in mid-2015 as well, before Klentak. Just because they did not do everything at once does not mean the rebuild had not started and they were not fully committed to it.

I would distinguish between the teardown and the rebuild. I just think Klentak came in with a three to five year plan, and last year was Year 1 at best (and in some ways still Year 0). Fans that want 81 wins this year or 86 next year are probably going to be disappointed because he's not trying to move that quickly. Doesn't mean they can't get lucky/arrive early, but we still don't see the sort of young talent or surprise acquisitions that made it happen for the Cubs and Astros (though I guess Herrera is our Altuve, the first piece).

[Austinfan]

Well, if the rebuild started in 2015, year five would be 2019, which means we're right on schedule.
I think given that last year's win total was inflated, 75 wins or more would be a fine season this year, over .500 in 2018 and contending in 2019 (85-90 wins)
The dynasty starts off the next decade, 2020 will be the year of Philly champions (one can dream).

[Philsmania]

Interesting how "five year plan" probably sounds like old school cliche talk but the truth is, even teams that take modern approaches seem to take five years to get the job done.

[Philsmania]

If Nava went to AAA, where would he play?

He's a bench player in the majors and he'd be a bench player in the minors. That's what over-30 journeymen signed for minor league depth are for. I mean, there may be no reason for the Phillies to keep him, especially given the 40-man issue, 'cause he wouldn't be easy to call up and you already have Quinn. But if he doesn't have another offer & they want the depth, easy enough to stash him.

Can Nava play third?

[DurhamBull]

Can Nava play third?

He's played strictly OF/1B in the majors and minors.

Daniel Nava Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

[Austinfan]

I think in both baseball and ice hockey, it's driven by 18 years olds, and the fact it takes 5 years to have 3 classes of prospects who are aged 21-23 and ready to start making a difference.
In baseball, you can mix in 20-21 year old college players, but baseball players often take longer to mature professionally.
You still need to accelerate the process by trading veterans for prospects, but to build talent depth you have to be very lucky or very patient, or both.

In the NBA, you're limited by basically having 1 1st rd pick a year, so while top players can contribute in their 2-3 years, it takes time to accumulate a critical mass.

The turnaround is faster in the NFL b/c you're drafting college juniors and seniors, and you can find starters deep into a draft and off the street.
And free agency in NFL, because of shorter effective salaries, allows you to add talent.