Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

bigegypt0417 2016-12-06 16:02:16 UTC #619

Not really sure the tigers have pieces to send back...their system isn't very deep...

bkeich 2016-12-06 16:04:09 UTC #620

Honestly, I was just trying to start some conversation. I understand the long term goal, but I am frustrated with the teams inability (unwillingness) to use its excess capital to improve the team. They are making no attempt to acquire players that can either be flipped for prospects or take on bad deals and prospects (similar to Harrison) or push the young players to at least be average players (most of them are not).

Yes, I do realize that Alfaro and Crawford may change my assertion, but honestly I don't expect them to put up the numbers that were put up last year by Galvis and Rupp. Last year was probably an aberration for Rupp and Galvis as both hit much better than anticipated, and I would not expect any of the 4 to put up those numbers this year. My point was that without doing something to improve the offense we are likely to be just as bad as last year, and we were one of the worst offensive teams in recent memory last year.

Why not acquire a player that can push some of our young players. Kendrick might be able to push Hernandez, but who pushes everyone else? Why just continue to role out the same players that combined to be awful last season? Would adding a quality infielder and a quality outfielder really set back anything? For example, 1B. Joseph was a nice surprise, but even as he was he was a 0.5 WAR player. That isnt very exciting and there isnt much reason to believe he is going to get significantly better (his minor league stats looked really good for a catcher, but for a 1B he is not a strong offensive player). Yet he will be our starting 1B, the most important offensive position.

We could use the $80+M that the owners are keeping somehow to improve the team, improve the rebuild. Or they could cash the checks. Which is better?

julio 2016-12-06 16:04:23 UTC #621

I found this fascinating. Compare Kolton Wong to Cesar Hernandez.

IMHO, Cesar compares pretty favorably

julio 2016-12-06 16:34:46 UTC #622

I just think it's very premature to make this kind of judgment. Opening Day is four months away. Saying "they're making no attempt..." is based on what? Pass judgment on the off-season when the off-season is over - not at the beginning.

Galvis "hit much better than anticipated"? His OPS+ was 79. His lifetime OPS+ is 76. Yes, he got hot late in the season, and some fans decided he's somehow turned a corner. I have my doubts about that - but I see no reason why he can't reproduce that OPS+ (79) in 2017 - he's been at that number for the past two seasons.

Rupp probably peaked, offensively, last season - he was 27, and that's a pretty common age to be peaking. I don't know that he'll repeat (OPS+ of 99), but again, I see no reason why he can't replicate his career average (OPS+ of 90) in 2017. A bit less than 2016, but... what are the options? I doubt you're going to find a competent catcher on the market, who can better an OPS+ of 90, who will sign short-term - or who is available in a reasonable trade. Who did you have in mind?

Tommy Joseph has a total of 347 major-league at-bats. OPS+ of 115. Not overwhelming - but with that sample size, it's (again) premature, IMHO, to be passing judgment. If you bring in some veteran...you never find out about Joseph.

Lastly, I simply don't buy the argument that "they need to spend the money." Spending money does not necessarily equate to improvement. Fixating on the payroll, instead of progress against the plan (the long-term plan - not "making it look good" in the short run), is (again IMHO) wrong-headed.

If we see specific opportunities - that make sense in terms of the plan - that are foregone, because they would "cost too much," then we can have a conversation about that. But I haven't seen that (with the possible exception of arguments about international spending this winter). I've seen people complain that they're not spending enough in general, or that they're not doing enough to improve the short-term product - but skimping against the long-term plan. Haven't seen that case made.

Austinfan 2016-12-06 16:38:57 UTC #623

I didn't expect big moves from Klentak this offseason, so what they've done doesn't surprise me, lot's of one year deals whether trade (Kendrick), QO (Hellickson) or FA (Benoit). The players they dropped from the 40 man roster were long shots ever to make the majors (Pullin might have the best shot, but he's a SSS, Cordero has question marks and is no longer a youngster).

In effect, protect your most promising prospects, use veterans to patch a few spots, but set your self up for July trades and an October house cleaning. Buy a year to evaluate your AAA prospects and their potential, can Cozens hit a breaking ball? Hoskins or Joseph going forward? Crawford replaces Galvis or Hernandez. Can Quinn stay healthy.

Next offseason Klentak will have a lot more answers, and that's when I expect him to start wheeling and dealing.

As far as being competitive, they have a deep young pitching staff, a veteran bullpen, it comes down to the kids, boht on the roster and in AAA ball - if they step up they'll be competitive a year early, if not, wait until next year.

As far as whether players have peaked, I don't think there are a lot of players on this team who've reached the point in their career where "what you see is what you get", certainly not the young pitchers, or Franco. We don't know if Hernandez can put together entire seasons like the stretches he's had the last two years, if Herrera can adjust to adjustments made by pitchers after he became more disciplined, whether Rupp came back to earth or just wore down. The reasons you have coaches is to work on players' weaknesses, at some point you run against the player's instrinsic limitations, but when is that point?

For a lot of players 2017 is a key season, most of the players on the current roster are in the phase of their career where either they adjust and improve or flatline, the AAA players are faced with "forcing" a promotion by their performance. Top prospects don't need two years in AAA to prove they're ready. So while they may not be competitive this season, there will be a lot to watch at the ML and high minors to keep us interested.

julio 2016-12-06 16:46:14 UTC #624

Further on bkeich's Tommy Joseph comment: The current buzz from the winter meetings is about clubs' interest in Mitch Moreland. Mitch Moreland? 31 years old in 2017, with numbers that are not better (they're worse) than Tommy Joseph's numbers.

Who else? Chris Carter? HR champ, recently non-tendered - but an OPS+ of 114 - no better than Joseph.

Austinfan 2016-12-06 16:47:57 UTC #625

Joseph missed three seasons for all intents and purposes.
He was on a 40 HR pace over a full season.
He's young, cheap with lots of upside. Tremendous power. Good stroke. Decent athlete.
Why wouldn't you give him a full season to find out what you have in him?

andyb 2016-12-06 16:56:16 UTC #626

This is why Saunders is a perfect fit. The injury history will limit him to a 2-3 year deal. We can overpay. Something like 2/28 is eminently doable for us. He fills a position of need. And there is a 10% chance he stays healthy and the all star performance in the first half of last year is real.

It is not spending money just to spend money. It is overpaying a little on a guy who fills a current need AND does not demand the sort of long term deal that would make him untradeable. This is not unlike the thinking on Neshek and Benoit. Overpay a little to get a player who helps now that could also be traded later.

I expect Galvis and Rupp to be a little worse next year and would still advocate exploring trades for them since they may be coming off years with more offense than we will see in the future. Add in the presence of Crawford and Alfaro as well.

Now if they decide to put $50 million in a mutual fund then use that next year as a bonus for Otani I am OK with that too.

julio 2016-12-06 16:57:14 UTC #627

I would, obviously - and I agree. Unless there's an obviously better player available, and you've concluded that Joseph isn't good enough going forward (although on the limited data available, I don't see how one reaches that conclusion), you go with Joseph. If Rhys Hoskins can push him off the 1st base bag, so much the better.

Developing a solid core requires patience. It seems to me that laments about the 2017 roster (notwithstanding that we don't yet know the composition of that roster!) are basically due to impatience; people want the club to be as competitive as possible - NOW. The trouble is, maximizing NOW can be at the expense of maximizing the long term. Writing off Tommy Joseph in favor of (well, whatever could be found) is an example. Concluding that Joseph isn't good enough, based on minor league stats from seasons when he was in and out of the lineup, recovering from multiple concussions - that's a flawed analysis, IMHO.

julio 2016-12-06 17:10:51 UTC #628

This is kind of interesting. Even before the injury, Saunders' 2014 was pretty good (OPS+ of 128 ain't chickenfeed) - arguably better than his 2016.

Given that we currently only have three outfielders on the roster (Altherr, Herrera, Kendrick) who aren't likely headed to AAA (Cozens, Goeddel, Quinn, Williams), something will have to be done. Don't know if Saunders is the best option, but he's an option.

bkeich 2016-12-06 17:13:05 UTC #629

But Joseph also has 2039 PA in the minors and produced a 0.733 OPS. Not bad for a catcher, but not really exciting for a 1B. There just isnt that much to show that Joseph will become a quality offensive 1B, so why not push him with a veteran? If nothing else that veteran can serve as a PH? Maybe someone who can play 1B and another position?

My point is that we are returning essentially the same team as last year, so it is another wasted year except of course for all the excess cash. Why not try and make some moves with this cash to improve the future? Just rolling out the same awful team with a few minor moves will result in the same awful results.

Yes, we have prospects. Some will work out, some will fail. Why not try and use this money to inprove the odds by adding quality to the organization?

Improving the short term is improving the long term. By investing in the short term some of those players acquired or others may become available for trades. By just rolling out the same team the argument will be that there is no replacement. Galvis ia a good example, his value will probably never be higher than right now, but by waiting until Crawford unseats him his value will most likely be almost 0 (will probably show that the hot streak last year was just that, will be an excess player on our roster, etc.).

Last year when we got to the trade deadline we found out we really had nothing to sell because not enough effort was made to fill out the 25 man roster with quality. Instead we had valueless players that we were trying to unload.

Benoit is a good example of a player likely to be valued at the trade deadline, but we need to add more like him. That signing helps the long term by helping the short term. Instead we will probably fill out the roster with Parades-types because they are cheap and get another silly response like "we are spending money on our sabermetric evaluations" which was frankly an insult to the fan's intelligence.

andyb 2016-12-06 17:24:18 UTC #630

I am divided/pessimistic on Joseph. I do think his offense is a bit out of character with his record and he might settle into a slightly lower level in the future. I would also dispute that he is a good athlete. He might have a decent arm but he has no speed and no other position other than 1B now that catching is out of the question.

As Julio said, there is no reason to do much with Hoskins waiting in the wings and potentially better. If both end up good it is a nice problem to have. If both struggle then we better bring in a left handed platoon option somewhere to balance out the roster. It would be nice if Stassi took a step forward and won a bench role as he is more credible in the OF than Ruf was. If not Stassi we do need some sort of left handed bat in the backup IF mix.

julio 2016-12-06 17:43:47 UTC #631

I just think it's unwise to look at Tommy Joseph's minor league numbers - and ignore the context of those numbers (a half-dozen concussions, lots of time on DLs, etc.). Joseph's minor league numbers are inconsistent - and the vast majority of his plate appearances came in 2010-2012, before all the injury.

Just as an example - look at Jayson Werth's stats for the three years prior to the Phillies' acquiring him. Context matters.

Is it too soon to know about Joseph? I think it is; I don't think looking at his struggles in the minors, trying to catch and recover from major injuries, tell us much. His performance in 2016 is, to be sure, not consistent with those minor-league years; but is it consistent with the scouting reports/projections for him, prior to all the concussions? If it is, then there's reason to suspect that the power is real, not just a streak. Is it worth finding out? That, to me, is a no-brainer.

Soloman_grundy 2016-12-06 17:47:59 UTC #632

I'd imagine that teams have contacted the Phillies about Herrera, Joseph, Hernandez, Valasquez, et al, and I expect that Klentak has asked for value + for these guys. No reason to trade any of them unless the value is better. Teams are probably balking, but Klentak is right in keeping the bar high in expectations.

donaldorc 2016-12-06 17:50:26 UTC #633

Where has California Dreamin' been? I'd love to hear his perspectives again on Joseph. I am optimistic about Joseph. Of course, I thought Pancho Herrera was the Phillies' answer to 1st base a few years ago.

Austinfan 2016-12-06 18:05:04 UTC #634

Joseph's minor league numbers, before the concussions, were very good for his age, as good as Alfaro, for example. He was a top prospect at one point.

The eyeball test confirms the stats of his major league debut, he has a short, powerful stroke, tremendous power, adjusted as the season progressed. Still needs to be more disciplined at the plate, but looked tremendous for a guy who missed three seasons (more or less). Maybe it's a SSS fluke (but a pretty big SSS), but the upside is so "up" you'd be foolish as a rebuilding team not to play him everyday and find out.

Compare to say Cozens, who is a real question mark even at the AA level, Joseph hit RHP in the majors, Cozens struggles with LHP in the minors.

As far as signing guys, it's early, I suspect Klentak has approached a dozen agents to guage what they're looking for, they say 3-4 years at x dollars, he says call me back if you can't get that from someone else. Just because fans think an offer is reasonable, an agent may see it as a last resort and not even consider it until January.

Philsmania 2016-12-06 18:59:48 UTC #635

In Phillies off-the-field off-season news which is getting significant national attention, Aramark--and, by extension, the Phillies--cut ties with Pistachio Girl over her involvement with the so-called "white nationalist" movement.

julio 2016-12-06 19:01:31 UTC #636

As would I!

CD has not made the transition from the old board. I hope that's because he's been traveling/busy, but I don't know.

donaldorc 2016-12-06 19:03:10 UTC #637

He was rather silent even before the transition. Miss his perspective.

Philsmania 2016-12-06 19:08:19 UTC #638

I remember a couple of years ago, he took a few of months off to step back and observe. It is possible though that he may have reached his point of disgust with the organization. He made no secret of his disdain for Mackanin and McClure and may be angry that they are still getting Phillies paychecks. And, he did seem kind of cool toward what MacPhail and Klentak were doing while he seemed very high on what Preller and Stearns were doing in San Diego and Milwaukee respectively.