Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[julio]

Per Meghan Montemurro:

Meghan Montemurro (M_Montemurro)

Rollins was reasonably effective in the PCL - WHIP under 1.000 - but not effective with the Mariners. It will be interesting to see what he can show this spring.

Barring a trade, Asche will hang in DFA limbo for the next week. The deadline for requesting outright waivers prior to the Rule 5 draft was yesterday - so the Phils can't request waivers on Asche until next Thursday afternoon at the earliest - which means finding out if he clears waivers won't happen until along about December 10th.

[andyb]

Sal has been with the Phillies since the mid-90s. He signed Carlos Silva (for mid-level dollars at the time) in 1996 and was made international director formally in 1997. From that point on we have been signing 20-30 low level prospects a year. It is more than a decade. It is two decades of having a significant Latin American operation.

The problem is that until the last 5-7 years we always ranked in the bottom half or at best, the middle, of international spending. Also, when we are claiming that other organizations do not do a good job with the lower level prospects we have no evidence to back that up. We are just cherry-picking a few of our own positive outcomes and not doing the same with other organizations (most of whom have as many positive outcomes among low-level signings).

[Austinfan]

Blurb from Fansgraph on Rollins:

David Rollins, LHP Video: 2014 Rule 5 pick from Houston was busted for steroids last week and will serve an 80-game suspension starting on Opening Day, after which the Mariners will attempt to keep him long enough to get his full rights. The 6’1/210 25-year-old sits 90-93 and hits 95 mph, with a slider that’s a 55 at times, a fringy changeup and decent command. The Astros wanted Rollins to throw a curveball and be a starter, but Seattle thinks he fits better in relief with a slider.

92 FA, Change and slider.
They've had good success working on changeups, give him an average or better change with a plus slider and his FB is more than good enough for a LHP.

Guess they're trying to build bullpen depth, but is he worth a 40 man spot?

[flyers19rw]

Andy, Are you willing to take into consideration the financial shackles that the former leadership group might have put on Sal? To me, when Middleton/Bucks took over control of the club, it was the beginning of a new era. Its only been a year and a half since MacPhail took charge. I'm willing to see how everyone that is now in the organization performs, including Sal, before I decide to be too critical of things.
I still have a hard time understanding how Amaro, with all of the family connections to baseball in LA did so poorly in acquiring talent from that area. The potential for a Phillies gold mine for LA players was there but it never occurred. It had to be that those from above refused to invest in it.

[Austinfan]

When did Sal get a real budget?
We do have a lot of LA players on the roster, Chicago for example had one low budget guy.

Looking at the BA top 100 for 2016:

1. 3. Yoan Moncada, 2b, Red Sox - $31.5M (Cuba)
2. 4. Julio Urias, lhp, Dodgers - $3M
3. 7. Alex Reyes, rhp, Cardinals - $950K
4. 8. Orlando Arcia, ss, Brewers - $95K
5. 18. Rafael Devers, 3b, Red Sox - $1.5M
6. 19. Anderson Espinoza, rhp, Red Sox - $1.8M
7. 20. Francis Martes, rhp, Astros ???
8. 21. Nomar Mazara, of, Rangers $5M
9. 23. Jose De Leon, rhp, Dodgers $35K
10. 26. Jorge Mateo, ss, Yankees $250K
11. 29. Raul A. Mondesi, ss, Royals $2M
12. 33. Victor Robles, of, Nationals $225K
13. 35. Franklin Barreto ss, Athletics $1.45M
14. 36. Gary Sanchez, c, Yankees $3M
15. 41. Gleyber Torres, ss, Cubs $1.45M
16. 52. Javier Guerra, ss, Padres $250K
17. 55. Hector Olivera, 3b/of, Braves $62.5M (Cuba)
18. 56. Manuel Margot, of, Padres $800K
19. 58. Amed Rosario, ss, Mets $1.75M
20. 63. Ozzie Albies, ss/2b, Braves $350K
21. 66. Jose Peraza, ss/2b, Reds $350K
22. 67. Willson Contreras, c, Cubs $850K
23. 92. Reynaldo Lopez, rhp, Nationals $17K
24. 95. Harold Ramirez, of, Pirates $1.05M
26. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b, Twins $775K

25 of the top 100, including 2 big money Cubans
3 bonuses $3-5M
7 bonuses $1-2M
4 bonuses $500K - 1M
5 bonuses $100K - $500K
3 bonuses under $100K
1 unknown but probably small

[andyb]

We have been in the middle (10-20 range) in baseball spending for the last 10-15 years. We probably were in the late 1990s in the early years of Sal's regime also. Now the list was always top heavy with the top 5-10 spenders much further from the mean from the bottom 5-10 - but to say we did not have a real program 15 years ago is simply wrong. We did. We signed Carlos Rodriguez in 2000 for $700K. Like all teams we sign 20-30 low budget players. And our results have been mixed.

The Cubs in your example having only one low priced player on their roster is not a real analysis. Just because they had success in the high dollar range does not mean their low dollar success rate was better or worse. One would need to analyze all their low budget signees over a period of years, track them in trades, and then present data. Not sure either of us have time for that.

It sounds like you agree with the central point that Sal would do better with a larger budget. There just is not a whole lot of evidence that Sal has been dramatically better than average with the budget he was given. He has had some success stories, but so have most teams. Carlos Carrasco is probably the most valuable player we have signed in recent years and he was mid-level ($300K in 2003 which would be more like a million today).

Sometimes I am unsure of the thesis of your various lists. We have a lot of LA players on our roster partially because we traded everyone and were forced to go with lots of young players. And the best of them (Herrera) was not our signee. Point me to the other stars that we have signed. Not quite sold on Cesar Hernandez or Freddy Galvis yet. Hernandez was great value for a small bonus, but I am sure just about every club has a Hernandez who is good for a few years. Galvis was high dollar so he does not fit your thesis either.

[zambonir]

What a quiet end for Cody Asche. Seems worse to lose your spot to disposable reliever instead of someone who needed to be protected from Rule V. I suspect they can trade him (a la the Biddle trade). Would be a little surprised if he clears, the $ aren't that big.

Phillies do seem to love having optionable relievers so if Rollins sticks he could provide that. Maybe a guy whose suspension and Rule V status messed with his development?

[allentown]

Austinfan -- Again, I don't see how your list proves your global point. To me, it supports my position. You list all of these international prospects from the top 100 prospect list and the Phillies have exactly ZERO on the list. To me that says what we are doing isn't working very well. We are getting depth, as we are out of the draft, but guys whom others are projecting to be significant future WAR contributors? Nope! That's a problem which still needs to be fixed. Ortiz was the big investment and is still extremely young and could break out in 2017, so that's one possibility for next year's top 100 list. Encarnacion is the next high bonus guy. I don't think he's going to make it.

The fear of a lot of middling prospects in the minors is that you end up with a ton of Cody Asche, Ruf, Buchanon, Sev Gonzalez types. We did very well with Ruiz, but that was a baseball generation ago.

[phillychuck]

So sorry to see Asche DFA'd. I had a lot of hope for him, but he's definitely going to have to make it as a 3B, he's still a Luzinski-type disaster in the OF. No room at 3B in Philly...

[zambonir]

While it wasn't an exact process, essentially the Phillies must like Rollins more than they liked Araujo. For now, anyway.

[Austinfan]

I just used 2016 to show the extent of LA signings among prospects and the breakdown of money.
Phillies would have guys if you went back a couple years (Franco) or forward a couple years.
Guys like Kilome and Sixto are good bets to make that list in a year or two.

Not sure why, but almost all our LA signings are gonig to be at Clearwater and down next year, for some reason there was a real lull in signings after the first wave.

Clearwater: Grullon ($575), Canelo, Cumana, Pujols ($540), Tromp, Kilome, Taveras, Edgar Garcia
Lakewood: Brito ($650), Ortiz ($4.2M), Alastre, Medina, Sanchez, Dominquez
Williamsport: Rivero ($110), Rodriquez ($300), Duran, Encarnacion ($1M), Gamboa (#$900), E Rodriquez ($100), Luis, Matos, Llovera, Carrasco,
GCL::Marchan ($200K), Bocio ($70K), Guzman ($60K), B. Gonzalez, Brayan ($900K), Torres, ($665K), Morales ($900K)

[LoneStarPhan]

Last off season, the Phillies claimed several pitchers on waivers and added them to the 40 man roster. A couple they later put on waivers and lost. We will probably see more waiver wire pickups this off season. I read somewhere some speculation that the Phillies might try getting Rollins through waivers later this off season. The Mariners, Cubs, and Rangers tried that and it didn't work. The Phillies have a real need for some left handed relievers but I don't know if Rollins is ready to step into the Phillies pen coming our of spring training. He certainly didn't show it with the Mariners when given ML time in the last two seasons. Still, he must have some promise since the Mariners took him in a past rule 5 draft and now the Cubs, Rangers, and Phillies have claimed him from waivers in the past two weeks.

[andyb]

But my central point is that your list does not really prove a thing. Close to one third of major league ballplayers are Latino these days. That means more than one third of prospects should be Latino (they are signed at an earlier age so they are in the system as prospects much longer than top American born prospects - think Tocci).

I am not saying we have done badly for the money in Latin America. We certainly have had our successes. But there is just little evidence that we are punching above our weight class here. We have not produced many stars. We have produced some average big leaguers but so has everyone else (that one third number again).

We have a good Latin American program. Maybe we are edging towards the top 10 now but that is a specific result of our money edging towards the top 10 in the last 5 years. Now we can't do that any more (i.e. spend more). So our success will be based on our scouts being better and we will start at a $1 million disadvantage unless we trade for additional allocations. I hope we do so, but I am far from confident we can continue to be above average in Latin America. I hope we will, but there is little in the new rules that imply we will continue to be above average. Hopefully other organizations are cheap and will give us $3 million in allocations that they don't intend to use to save money.

[andyb]

Is it just me or would anyone else prefer to have had an open 40-man slot as opposed to having Rollins? I see the odds as less than 50-50 he even makes it to Spring Training without getting outrighted again. Would love to take a chance on another younger prospect and find a LOOGY or two in a subsequent minor league deal.

[allentown]

Austinfan--
Yes, you took a single year, but it is the only year that matters. It is the current year. So to judge our current international program strength, one only has to look at the quality of our international minor leaguers and the quality of the guys we have on the major league team. At current time, no MLB stars or minor leaguers singled out as future stars. Yes, this is only a snapshot it time, but it's current time and it shows we have a problem. Not only is your best chance at a star to be found among the big $ signees, but that is where you have chosen to devote the vast majority of your available resources. These signings should be the ones you think the most about and that most reflect what the organization seeks in a prospect. So, if you bomb on your big $ signings, there is something wrong with your evaluative process or the evaluation standards. Since these are the signings which draw the most attention and review from the higher-ups in the scouting department and general baseball management, they speak the most clearly about problems at the top. Just as with LGJ, there seemed to be a forcing of the issue with the big $ to a one-dimensional player like Encarnacion and the bigger dollars to Ortiz. There is a ton riding on Ortiz. If he flops, I will conclude we have very big problems in our LA scouting. It is the same if you hit on some non-primo round draft picks each year but repeatedly bomb on your top picks, as we mainly did during the Wolever years. To me, it meant Wolever was too much of a riverboat gambler and scouting based upon the wrong criteria. The guys farther down the organization, on the later picks where Wolever didn't have as much of a voice, did better at spotting real talent.

[Squire]

Not just you. The Yankees non-tendered LHP Jacob Lindgren yesterday and he seems like a better LHP candidate than Rollins. I suspect some 40 man slots may come open. I could see a Cesar Hernandez trade for guys who don't need to be protected. Same with Hector Neris. That being said, I'm not sure we pick anyone in the Rule 5 draft.

[DurhamBull]

What a quiet end for Cody Asche. Seems worse to lose your spot to disposable reliever instead of someone who needed to be protected from Rule V. I suspect they can trade him (a la the Biddle trade). Would be a little surprised if he clears, the $ aren't that big.

Agreed. "Disposable reliever" is exactly right, and the comparison can't feel too good to Asche. I hope he gets to thrive elsewhere, or at least put together a Greg Hobbs-Type career.

[julio]

The Yankees non-tendered LHP Jacob Lindgren yesterday and he seems like a better LHP candidate than Rollins. I suspect some 40 man slots may come open. I could see a Cesar Hernandez trade for guys who don't need to be protected. Same with Hector Neris. That being said, I'm not sure we pick anyone in the Rule 5 draft.

Claiming Rollins doesn't affect the Phils ability to pursue Lindgren if they agree with your evaluation of the two; if they reach agreement with Lindgren, they DFA/waive Rollins. This would be essentially the same as what we saw last winter, where players were sequentially claimed, then waived as "better options" became available.

It currently appears that Klentak has chosen to pass up the Rule 5 draft this year. I say "appears" because the deadline for outrighting a player prior to the draft is Monday 12/5 (and the deadline for requesting outright waivers - which we likely will never know about unless somebody gets claimed - was Thursday 12/1). As others have noted, there are still guys on the 40-man who could be outrighted (or lost on waivers) without significant impact on the club's future - Garcia, Klein, Mariot. If the Phils have requested waivers on any of these guys, they could still open a roster-spot before Monday evening.

[julio]

What a quiet end for Cody Asche. Seems worse to lose your spot to disposable reliever instead of someone who needed to be protected from Rule V. I suspect they can trade him (a la the Biddle trade). Would be a little surprised if he clears, the $ aren't that big.

Agreed. "Disposable reliever" is exactly right, and the comparison can't feel too good to Asche. I hope he gets to thrive elsewhere, or at least put together a Greg Hobbs-Type career.

Greg Dobbs. Roy Hobbs isn't in Asche's future, I'm afraid!

[Austinfan]

A sizeable percentage of that Latino baseball population are American, when I went through the BA 100 list, there were at least a half dozen names that were Latino but were drafted, and this number will increase as the Latino population increases in the US.
Only 25% were LA signings, and 2 were Cubans, a vein which has been stripped.