Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[Philsmania]

A brief blurb on how we may be working with the old CBA regime this offseason.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/current-cba-rules-could-roll-over-through-offseason.html

[Austinfan]

For me, it's been painful waiting on players to finally get a chance while being blocked by a veteran on their way out the door.
The idea of signing someone else to fill that role as "roadblock to the future" seems crazy.
I look at the 2014 Boston Red Sox that went young and had a disastrous season, they panicked a grabbed up who they thought were the two best bats in Free Agency, along with overpaying for a top Cuban prospect(when Jackie Bradley Jr. stumbled).
During the 2015 season, their young players started to come around, now they are the team. The players they signed in panic-mode are simply bad signings and more in the way than anything else.
We should learn from this.
I want no part of any player that a Manager is going to give waaaaaaaaay too much respect to while blocking a younger players playing time.
Strengthen the bench, the bullpen and let the season and the future begin.

That's why I've been talking in terms of 1-2 year patches, who can be cut, traded or benched when a young player beats them out.
And only the corner OF, I think we're pretty deep at every other spot other than maybe 3B (and Galvis could fill in, he'd be Gold Glove material there).
Same with SP, we have 7 young candidates plus Pivetta, Appel, Viza and Eshelman, with Kilome close behind, we don't need a veteran #3/#4 taking away starts (though keeping Hellickson on his QO isn't so bad, one year contract that could be flipped in July).

Yes, it would be nice to go .500 in 2017, it would be even nicer to be a young, competitive team starting in 2018.
I can watch young kids struggle for another season, what drove us all crazy was watching an old team struggle for three years.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

For me, it's been painful waiting on players to finally get a chance while being blocked by a veteran on their way out the door.
The idea of signing someone else to fill that role as "roadblock to the future" seems crazy.
I look at the 2014 Boston Red Sox that went young and had a disastrous season, they panicked a grabbed up who they thought were the two best bats in Free Agency, along with overpaying for a top Cuban prospect(when Jackie Bradley Jr. stumbled).
During the 2015 season, their young players started to come around, now they are the team. The players they signed in panic-mode are simply bad signings and more in the way than anything else.
We should learn from this.
I want no part of any player that a Manager is going to give waaaaaaaaay too much respect to while blocking a younger players playing time.
Strengthen the bench, the bullpen and let the season and the future begin.

That's why I've been talking in terms of 1-2 year patches, who can be cut, traded or benched when a young player beats them out.
And only the corner OF, I think we're pretty deep at every other spot other than maybe 3B (and Galvis could fill in, he'd be Gold Glove material there).
Same with SP, we have 7 young candidates plus Pivetta, Appel, Viza and Eshelman, with Kilome close behind, we don't need a veteran #3/#4 taking away starts (though keeping Hellickson on his QO isn't so bad, one year contract that could be flipped in July).

Yes, it would be nice to go .500 in 2017, it would be even nicer to be a young, competitive team starting in 2018.
I can watch young kids struggle for another season, what drove us all crazy was watching an old team struggle for three years.

The problem with these "1-2 year patches" is that they'll probably give you no more production or defensive value than a Asche/Ruf platoon or whatever AAAA signing we could make. There will be a reason why that player is only getting a 1-2 year contract from a team that isn't expected to contend. If there was a player in the final year of a contract that a team is just looking to dump contract(Like with Hellickson), that wouldn't be a terrible thing, but even then I'm sure the Manager would be more inclined to give him the royal treatment, rather than making him live up to his playing time.
Best case scenario, Williams, Quinn or Goeddel show up to Spring Training and one forces their way onto the team

[Austinfan]

Oh, you can do better than a Ruf/Asche platoon, Ruf can hit LH pitching, Asche can't hit any pitching, and Goeddel needs a year in AAA.
Altherr is a question mark, though with the wrist healthy he has a shot of locking down RF.
But they could definitely use a veteran patch at a corner OF spot, something better than the junk they've been sending out there for two years.
A 2 WAR player is still a lot better than a negative WAR player(s).

[Austinfan]

INnteresting article on minor league pitching ratings:

fangraphs.com/fantasy/minors ... -pitchers/

Confirms what I've suspected, too much emphasis on velocity, the real key to success is breaking balls at AA and AAA ball.

I suspect one reason young pitchers struggle when they first come up is they overthrow, the fastball flattens out, the breaking balls down break and the changeup doesn't change - then after a few starts (see Eflin, Thompson) they relax and their stuff shows up. Shows how exceptional Nola is in terms of makeup.

Asher is the poster child for movement on his FB, as a 4 seamer he got bombed, as a two seamer throwing 3-5 MPH SLOWER he was knocking them down in the majors. Which makes Appel the guy to watch this year, Houston had him throwing 4 seamers, Phillies wanted him to go back and throw two seamers like he did when he dominated in college. The injuries sorta interrupted that.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Oh, you can do better than a Ruf/Asche platoon, Ruf can hit LH pitching, Asche can't hit any pitching, and Goeddel needs a year in AAA.
Altherr is a question mark, though with the wrist healthy he has a shot of locking down RF.
But they could definitely use a veteran patch at a corner OF spot, something better than the junk they've been sending out there for two years.
A 2 WAR player is still a lot better than a negative WAR player(s).

That's easy to say, but who?
If you want to sign a free agent, they have to be an upgrade to what you already have and want to come here knowing that you're not looking to contend and you're looking to replace them ASAP.

[zambonir]

Oh, you can do better than a Ruf/Asche platoon, Ruf can hit LH pitching, Asche can't hit any pitching, and Goeddel needs a year in AAA.
Altherr is a question mark, though with the wrist healthy he has a shot of locking down RF.
But they could definitely use a veteran patch at a corner OF spot, something better than the junk they've been sending out there for two years.
A 2 WAR player is still a lot better than a negative WAR player(s).

That's easy to say, but who?
If you want to sign a free agent, they have to be an upgrade to what you already have and want to come here knowing that you're not looking to contend and you're looking to replace them ASAP.

There will be plenty of guys out there, they won't be that exciting - Rasmus, Gomez, Holliday - but you could get them on one-year deals, possibly trade them if they work out (even Bourjos probably would have been traded if he'd been healthy, albeit not for much).

Ruf is all but gone. Asche isn't going to start or even platoon. I certainly still don't think they will sign a FA to a three-year deal, and probably not a two-year deal either.

But listen, if Ian Desmond was to somehow fall to them (or they just decided he was the guy and paid the money, a la the Nats and Werth), or they were able to trade for someone like Heyward (never mind his specific merits), nobody's really getting blocked. Might cost Williams and Altherr a little playing time for two months (as they'd have to share) but that's about it, and is still conditional (by August 1 Altherr may have come around or he may have sealed his future as a bench guy). Meanwhile, Quinn can stay in the minors (and try to stay healthy), Cozens is a year away. If everybody hits their upside and there's a logjam in 2018 someone (including Herrera) would be a valuable trade chip for another area of need.

I'm ready for hot stove, I do think there will be one major trade. And if they do acquire a player who in his mid-20s, he's not blocking somebody, he is somebody.

[LoneStarPhan]

A brief blurb on how we may be working with the old CBA regime this offseason.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/current-cba-rules-could-roll-over-through-offseason.html

Seems to me that this should have been decided by now. The free agency season starts this week and everyone, players and teams, need to know the rules.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Oh, you can do better than a Ruf/Asche platoon, Ruf can hit LH pitching, Asche can't hit any pitching, and Goeddel needs a year in AAA.
Altherr is a question mark, though with the wrist healthy he has a shot of locking down RF.
But they could definitely use a veteran patch at a corner OF spot, something better than the junk they've been sending out there for two years.
A 2 WAR player is still a lot better than a negative WAR player(s).

That's easy to say, but who?
If you want to sign a free agent, they have to be an upgrade to what you already have and want to come here knowing that you're not looking to contend and you're looking to replace them ASAP.

There will be plenty of guys out there, they won't be that exciting - Rasmus, Gomez, Holliday - but you could get them on one-year deals, possibly trade them if they work out (even Bourjos probably would have been traded if he'd been healthy, albeit not for much).

Ruf is all but gone. Asche isn't going to start or even platoon. I certainly still don't think they will sign a FA to a three-year deal, and probably not a two-year deal either.

But listen, if Ian Desmond was to somehow fall to them (or they just decided he was the guy and paid the money, a la the Nats and Werth), or they were able to trade for someone like Heyward (never mind his specific merits), nobody's really getting blocked. Might cost Williams and Altherr a little playing time for two months (as they'd have to share) but that's about it, and is still conditional (by August 1 Altherr may have come around or he may have sealed his future as a bench guy). Meanwhile, Quinn can stay in the minors (and try to stay healthy), Cozens is a year away. If everybody hits their upside and there's a logjam in 2018 someone (including Herrera) would be a valuable trade chip for another area of need.

I'm ready for hot stove, I do think there will be one major trade. And if they do acquire a player who in his mid-20s, he's not blocking somebody, he is somebody.

Those 3 bad choices made my point.
If you're going to get someone actually worth getting, you're probably going to have to trade for them.

[Philsmania]

For me, it's been painful waiting on players to finally get a chance while being blocked by a veteran on their way out the door.
The idea of signing someone else to fill that role as "roadblock to the future" seems crazy.
I look at the 2014 Boston Red Sox that went young and had a disastrous season, they panicked a grabbed up who they thought were the two best bats in Free Agency, along with overpaying for a top Cuban prospect(when Jackie Bradley Jr. stumbled).
During the 2015 season, their young players started to come around, now they are the team. The players they signed in panic-mode are simply bad signings and more in the way than anything else.
We should learn from this.
I want no part of any player that a Manager is going to give waaaaaaaaay too much respect to while blocking a younger players playing time.
Strengthen the bench, the bullpen and let the season and the future begin.

That's why I've been talking in terms of 1-2 year patches, who can be cut, traded or benched when a young player beats them out.
And only the corner OF, I think we're pretty deep at every other spot other than maybe 3B (and Galvis could fill in, he'd be Gold Glove material there).
Same with SP, we have 7 young candidates plus Pivetta, Appel, Viza and Eshelman, with Kilome close behind, we don't need a veteran #3/#4 taking away starts (though keeping Hellickson on his QO isn't so bad, one year contract that could be flipped in July).

Yes, it would be nice to go .500 in 2017, it would be even nicer to be a young, competitive team starting in 2018.
I can watch young kids struggle for another season, what drove us all crazy was watching an old team struggle for three years.

The problem with these "1-2 year patches" is that they'll probably give you no more production or defensive value than a Asche/Ruf platoon or whatever AAAA signing we could make. There will be a reason why that player is only getting a 1-2 year contract from a team that isn't expected to contend. If there was a player in the final year of a contract that a team is just looking to dump contract(Like with Hellickson), that wouldn't be a terrible thing, but even then I'm sure the Manager would be more inclined to give him the royal treatment, rather than making him live up to his playing time.
Best case scenario, Williams, Quinn or Goeddel show up to Spring Training and one forces their way onto the team

The problem is that any good free agent is going to want a long-term contract--like four or more years--unless, like the Mets last season, you get him to agree to an opt-out after one season. A 1-2 year patch is likely to be someone very mediocre or a gamble that he'll have a bounce-back season. Having said that, I am not interested in any combination in LF that includes Asche and Ruf. Those ships have sailed, at least in this organization. Ruf has his backers on this forum but we'll have to see if he ever becomes something someplace else, though I personally am dubious that he will.

I am not anti-Mackanin but he is a holdover from the old regime and a placeholder currently and I would be a little surprised if he's still our manager a year from now. I suspect Klentak doesn't place giving him the veteran bat he craves as a priority.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

thatballsouttahere.com/2016/11/0 ... ing-coach/

A new hitting coach.

[Lawman]

Matt Stairs has been named the new hitting coach.

[phillychuck]

Matt Stairs has been named the new hitting coach.

So our new philosophy will be "swing hard in case you hit it"?

[fish]

That seems like an odd choice- like someone Ruben Amaro
would have picked.

[donaldorc]

Interesting choice. Bringing back connections to '08?

[andyb]

That seems like an odd choice- like someone Ruben Amaro
would have picked.

Stairs was always a high OBP, high OPS player. Now whether that was skillset or technique is another question.

[EastFallowfield]

Unless you hire Mike Trout or someone like that, wouldn't any hitting coach have a certain kind of skill that isn't universal amongst all your hitters? You hire Greg Gross, doesn't mean all your hitters are suddenly gonna start hitting .300 by singling to the opposite field constantly.

[donaldorc]

The egotist players these days don't listen to coaches anyway.

[David_Criss]

The main thing for a hitting coach these days is to help break down video for the hitters so they understand what to anticipate and how to look for flaws and ways to improve their swings. In the broadcast booth, Stairs was constantly saying things like he should be looking for a breaking pitch here and breaking down approaches and swings. I think that could translate into a good hitting coach.

[zambonir]

A brief blurb on how we may be working with the old CBA regime this offseason.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/current-cba-rules-could-roll-over-through-offseason.html

Seems to me that this should have been decided by now. The free agency season starts this week and everyone, players and teams, need to know the rules.

It's not a huge difference as it was already assumed November would proceed under the old rules (and it would have been far more radical if it hadn't. For example, if they had signed the new CBA early and it did away with QOs entirely, where would that leave the Phillies with Hellickson? Or if it were to somehow change the Rule V requirements, since the roster deadline is before the current CBA expires?

The alternative would be a work stoppage.