Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[andyb]

Bullpen idea: Ryan Madson.

Disappointing season last year for Oakland. Owed $15 million for 2 years so on the expensive side for them. K rate was down which is a little mysterious as his velocity according to Pitchfx was exactly the same as in 2015 and his last few years with the Phillies. 94 mph average fastball touching 97-98. 10-11 mph separation with his change. His issues last year appear to be command and not stuff. He could easily be a small sample size bullpen variation and would also provide the veteran reliever at the back of the bullpen that the team needs. I'd love to sign Chapman or Jansen too - but the reality is they may not want to come to Philly for even a 5/75 contract.

Madson might come relatively cheap if Oakland just wants to move on from the contract. Sean Doolittle also might get healthy and regain the closer role. Something to think about if the As do want to cut some salary.

[Austinfan]

Huh? " if someone offers you substantially more than the value you place on ANY player, you trade, if not, stay pat." So, unless you think you can absolutely kill the other team in a trade, you stand pat? No getting equal or slightly more than equal value for a player who is essentially redundant within a year? No trading from surplus at one position to fill a hole at another position in an 'everybody wins' equal deal? No trading present value for future benefit is a slightly better than fair deal? You need to have substantially better return than our player is worth? You won't make a lot of trades in that case, but you will pass by opportunities to improve the team for the present and the future. Coupled with your approach that FAs are too expensive and we shouldn't go that route until we have our contending team essentially all in place, you don't leave much of an avenue to improve the Phillies.

We're talking a team that's not a contender, trading simply to make trades makes no sense, it doesn't strengthen the talent base.
And that's what you focus on, when you're rebuilding, adding to your asset base.
If the Phillies were four years away from contending, trading a 26 year old starter for prospects might make sense, but does anyone believe that?
If the Phillies were the Rangers, with excess talent, trading prospects for a key addition would make sense, but does anyone think we're in that situation?

Alfaro and Crawford are not major league starter caliber players this April, maybe by July, maybe by September, maybe 2018. A prospect is just that, a potential player down the road, but there's no guarantee they'll ever make it. So we don't know who will be redundant in a year until their replacement proves they're ready. If Hoskins rips it up, either he or Joseph become expendable, if Cozens rips it up, we don't need a power hitting corner OF, and so on.

We have 7 young pitchers, but most are unproven or injury questions (right now Eickhoff is the only one you can write in for 30 starts). Nola's elbow, Velasquez has never thrown 150 innings, Eflin, Thompson, Morgan, Asher all have questions. So we can't trade them (selling low) and we can't be sure they can be reliable parts of the rotation.

So unless someone makes an offer that Klentak can't refuse, why would you be rushing to trade young players?

Next winter, if Alfaro and Crawford have won jobs, and some of the Lehigh players have proven themselves, then we'll be in the position to make a strategic trade or two that will strengthen the 2018 team. The value of Hernandez, Rupp and Galvis will depend on their 2017 performance, if they merely repeat 2016, their value increases because there's more assurance that's their norm. If they improve, it goes up, if they slip, well, it won't fall that much because for most teams, they're still considered unproven and that will merely confirm that they're only worth a 2nd tier prospect.

So if I'm Klentak I'm staying pat unless someone makes a great offer, in the winter of 2017-18, with more information, I can package Galvis and Hoskins/Joseph and a young pitcher and land a top pitcher or power hitting corner OF or . . . and improve my team, not just shuffle pieces around the chessboard.

[allentown]

Referenced from PhuturePhillies discussion, here is a really detailed post-season report on Phillies 2015 draftees:

baseballdraftreport.com/2016/10 ... -phillies/

[andyb]

Nice review and bonus top 30. First person to rank Williams fairly low. Though he is high on Ortiz to make up for that.

[olgrandad]

Who is this guy? What are his credentials? A little wordy and "authoritative."

[bigegypt0417]

Huh? " if someone offers you substantially more than the value you place on ANY player, you trade, if not, stay pat." So, unless you think you can absolutely kill the other team in a trade, you stand pat? No getting equal or slightly more than equal value for a player who is essentially redundant within a year? No trading from surplus at one position to fill a hole at another position in an 'everybody wins' equal deal? No trading present value for future benefit is a slightly better than fair deal? You need to have substantially better return than our player is worth? You won't make a lot of trades in that case, but you will pass by opportunities to improve the team for the present and the future. Coupled with your approach that FAs are too expensive and we shouldn't go that route until we have our contending team essentially all in place, you don't leave much of an avenue to improve the Phillies.

We're talking a team that's not a contender, trading simply to make trades makes no sense, it doesn't strengthen the talent base.
And that's what you focus on, when you're rebuilding, adding to your asset base.
If the Phillies were four years away from contending, trading a 26 year old starter for prospects might make sense, but does anyone believe that?
If the Phillies were the Rangers, with excess talent, trading prospects for a key addition would make sense, but does anyone think we're in that situation?

Alfaro and Crawford are not major league starter caliber players this April, maybe by July, maybe by September, maybe 2018. A prospect is just that, a potential player down the road, but there's no guarantee they'll ever make it. So we don't know who will be redundant in a year until their replacement proves they're ready. If Hoskins rips it up, either he or Joseph become expendable, if Cozens rips it up, we don't need a power hitting corner OF, and so on.

We have 7 young pitchers, but most are unproven or injury questions (right now Eickhoff is the only one you can write in for 30 starts). Nola's elbow, Velasquez has never thrown 150 innings, Eflin, Thompson, Morgan, Asher all have questions. So we can't trade them (selling low) and we can't be sure they can be reliable parts of the rotation.

So unless someone makes an offer that Klentak can't refuse, why would you be rushing to trade young players?

Next winter, if Alfaro and Crawford have won jobs, and some of the Lehigh players have proven themselves, then we'll be in the position to make a strategic trade or two that will strengthen the 2018 team. The value of Hernandez, Rupp and Galvis will depend on their 2017 performance, if they merely repeat 2016, their value increases because there's more assurance that's their norm. If they improve, it goes up, if they slip, well, it won't fall that much because for most teams, they're still considered unproven and that will merely confirm that they're only worth a 2nd tier prospect.

So if I'm Klentak I'm staying pat unless someone makes a great offer, in the winter of 2017-18, with more information, I can package Galvis and Hoskins/Joseph and a young pitcher and land a top pitcher or power hitting corner OF or . . . and improve my team, not just shuffle pieces around the chessboard.

Simply watching how Theo Epstein built the cubs over a 3 year period signing free agents and bringing up talent really makes your argument hold less and less water. the Phillies basically have the same financial clout the Cubs have and are capable of pulling off the same types of moves. Waiting to build your team in 1 off season is what mediocre GM's do. Take the pieces as they become available and move guys when they have value.

You seem to go on the premise every other GM in baseball knows more than our GM does.

[Austinfan]

First, it took Epstein five years, he took over the Cubs in October 2011.
The Cubs after a 75 and 71 win season before he took over won 61 (2012), 66 (2013), and 73 (2014) games.
Three previous drafts:
2009:
2-79 Justin LeMahieu (11.4 WAR)
2011:
1-9 Javier Baez
So he didn't inherit much, but drafting high has it's benefits:
His first draft was a bust:
2012:
1-6 Albert Almora, 4 of his first 5 were HS, so the jury is still out, but after five years the odds are long
2013:
1-2 Kris Bryant
2014:
1-4 Kyle Schwarber
2015:
1-9 Ian Happ

What did he inherit on the field:
2011, Barney 2b (25), Castro SS (21), 5 starters over 30, Soto C (28), bacups DeWitt IF (25), Colvin OF (25), Campana OF (25)
SP Garza (27), Wells (28), Coleman (23), Dempster (34), Zambrano (30), [strike]Lopez/strike
RP Marmol (28), Samardjiza (26), Marshall (28), Russell (25)

Transactions:
2011-12: traded Sean Marshall for Travis Wood
traded Na and Cashner for Rizzo. A steal, but note he dealt two marginal prospects.
traded Ryan Dempster (35) off a good start for Kyle Hendricks
2012-13:
Rule 5 Hector Rondon RP
traded Matt Garza for Carl Edwards RP, Justin Grimm RP,
signed Jorge Soler to 8yr $27M contract - big LA deal
traded Clevenger and Feldman for Arrieta
2013-14:
traded Samardjiza for Addison Russell IF
2014-15:
signed John Lester (31 in 2015) to a 6yr $144M contract with a $10M buyout in 2021 when he's 37
traded Majica and Godley for Montero C
traded Straily and Valbuena for Fowler OF
signed Jason Hammel (32) to 2 yr $18M contract ($10M option in 2017 or $2M buyout)
2015-16:
signed Ben Zobrist (35) 4yr $56M contract
signed Jason Heyward (26) to 7yr $185M contract (with 2019 opt out, or 3 yr $77M deal if he opts out)
signed John Lackey (37) to 2 yr, $32M contract

So Epstein didn't spend real money until he spent 3 years rebuilding the team to be competitive, then only two MAJOR contracts the last two years, one second tier guy and two third tier FAs. Not exactly a big spender.
His trades were moving marginal ML players and second tier prospects for guys with question marks (Arrieta) or undervalued by their current teams (Rizzo, Hendricks). He also traded for some veteran patches like Montero, Fowler - probably because his drafting record wasn't much better than the guys before him so the pipeline was thin on ML ready talent.
Only one high priced LA player in five years made the team.

[bigegypt0417]

First, it took Epstein five years, he took over the Cubs in October 2011.
The Cubs after a 75 and 71 win season before he took over won 61 (2012), 66 (2013), and 73 (2014) games.
Three previous drafts:
2009:
2-79 Justin LeMahieu (11.4 WAR)
2011:
1-9 Javier Baez
So he didn't inherit much, but drafting high has it's benefits:
His first draft was a bust:
2012:
1-6 Albert Almora, 4 of his first 5 were HS, so the jury is still out, but after five years the odds are long
2013:
1-2 Kris Bryant
2014:
1-4 Kyle Schwarber
2015:
1-9 Ian Happ

What did he inherit on the field:
2011, Barney 2b (25), Castro SS (21), 5 starters over 30, Soto C (28), bacups DeWitt IF (25), Colvin OF (25), Campana OF (25)
SP Garza (27), Wells (28), Coleman (23), Dempster (34), Zambrano (30), [strike]Lopez/strike
RP Marmol (28), Samardjiza (26), Marshall (28), Russell (25)

Transactions:
2011-12: traded Sean Marshall for Travis Wood
traded Na and Cashner for Rizzo. A steal, but note he dealt two marginal prospects.
traded Ryan Dempster (35) off a good start for Kyle Hendricks
2012-13:
Rule 5 Hector Rondon RP
traded Matt Garza for Carl Edwards RP, Justin Grimm RP,
signed Jorge Soler to 8yr $27M contract - big LA deal
traded Clevenger and Feldman for Arrieta
2013-14:
traded Samardjiza for Addison Russell IF
2014-15:
signed John Lester (31 in 2015) to a 6yr $144M contract with a $10M buyout in 2021 when he's 37
traded Majica and Godley for Montero C
traded Straily and Valbuena for Fowler OF
signed Jason Hammel (32) to 2 yr $18M contract ($10M option in 2017 or $2M buyout)
2015-16:
signed Ben Zobrist (35) 4yr $56M contract
signed Jason Heyward (26) to 7yr $185M contract (with 2019 opt out, or 3 yr $77M deal if he opts out)
signed John Lackey (37) to 2 yr, $32M contract

So Epstein didn't spend real money until he spent 3 years rebuilding the team to be competitive, then only two MAJOR contracts the last two years, one second tier guy and two third tier FAs. Not exactly a big spender.
His trades were moving marginal ML players and second tier prospects for guys with question marks (Arrieta) or undervalued by their current teams (Rizzo, Hendricks). He also traded for some veteran patches like Montero, Fowler - probably because his drafting record wasn't much better than the guys before him so the pipeline was thin on ML ready talent.
Only one high priced LA player in five years made the team.

So basically what you're saying is he added talent as it became available?

Your model says to wait until the off season before you think you can compete.

This idea that you wait seems to be a recipe for disaster. Take the opportunities as they present themselves and trade players you don't believe fit your long term plan and can bring you the return you're looking for.

Epstein used a combination of money and assets to build his team. Based on your recipe Jon Lester wouldn't have been a target because it was too early. rebuilds require all tools to be used.

[andyb]

The Phillies winning 71 games puts them closer to the Cubs after 2014 though, not 2011. What is constantly forgotten is that the Phillies started rebuilding before Klentak got here. Clearly all of 2015 reflects the team in rebuilding mode and they did not do any prospect trades to speak of in 2013 either.

We are probably not quite where the Cubs were in 2014, but we are pretty close. The first wave of prospects are already here or on the cusp. This does not mean they should go crazy in the free agent market because there is not a Lester or equivalent there. But it also means they should pick their spots and start to make some statements. I would love to see them get in on the bidding for Lourdes Gurriel. Not sure what position he ends up as (and frankly if it is 3B it might be a nice push for Franco), but he would add to their upper minors position player depth.

[Austinfan]

Probably where the Cubs were going INTO 2014, not after, both teams were in the 3rd year of a massive rebuild, Phillies actually did a better job drafting the last few years as well as trading all their veterans, but same issue, years of decline drained the franchise of talent. Those 71 wins are a bit of a mirage if you look at runs for/runs against.
Like I've said, if the Phillies show improvement this year and some of the young players step up, NEXT winter is when you start making major moves.
Which is what Epstein did, put the foundation together with trades for young talent, then once he hit critical mass, added some veteran patches and a couple free agents.

One problem for Epstein is that team is very fragile with a number of older key players and a so-so farm system, he may have to blow it up and reload in a year or two.
I like that the Phillies seem committed to building the farm system from top to bottom, I'd like to see them overspend in LA anticipating a draft, especially since a lot of competitors are blocked from bidding on top players in 2017.

[Dirk41]

Epstein essentially tanked his way to the World Series. The Cubs were dreadful.

I do like his model of drafting hitters and gambling on pitchers as free agents and in low risk, high reward trades.

[andyb]

The Phillies Pythagorean projections really are biased by a series of blowouts in the last month and a half of the season:

Aug. 16th 15-5
Aug. 27th 12-1
Sep. 15th 15-2
Sep. 25th 17-0
Sep. 28th 12-2

The team was 10-34 in blowouts of 5+ runs. They actually scored more runs than their opponents in all the other games.

Yes, they were a little lucky being 28-23 in 1-run games and 7-6 in extra inning games. But really they invested no money in their bullpen and ended up paying heavily for that in blowouts. They had a very young roster that should improve from within. Maybe they are more like a 67-68 win team than a 71-win team, but they are ahead of where the Cubs were entering 2014. If Nola is healthy and Velasquez can pitch 180 innings this is not a bad team, especially if they shore up the bullpen. Their base of young players does not have the star quality that the Cubs had going into 2015, but there is more depth and their top prospects are mostly ready.

[Austinfan]

They're still not ready for a legitimate run in 2017, .500 if everything breaks right, but they're not a potential 90 win team like the Cubs in 2015.
So there's no urgency to make moves this winter, you always want to be opportunistic, which is what Epstein did his first three years, identified undervalued assets and obtained them cheaply, he had a lot of misses, but never spent much in assets in his trades.

It works both ways, Phillies should have been more aggressive between 2000-2006, but the Garcia trade is the classic example of overpaying (and a lot of people thought so at the time, a questionable veteran for two top pitching prospects close to the majors).

One problem the Phillies have is Reading (like Texas League and PCL performances) makes teams wary of hitting prospects (though there's not a symmetric effect on pitchers, pitching well at Reading isn't a great predictor for Lehigh and the ML). One reason I'd invest in a big scoreboard or other device to make the park less HR friendly, that would help player development and make players more valuable as trading chips coming off a big season there. A good season at Lehigh, given it's seen as a neutral park in a neutral league, would up the trading value of some of our second tier prospects.

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em . . ."

[andyb]

They're still not ready for a legitimate run in 2017, .500 if everything breaks right, but they're not a potential 90 win team like the Cubs in 2015.
So there's no urgency to make moves this winter, you always want to be opportunistic, which is what Epstein did his first three years, identified undervalued assets and obtained them cheaply, he had a lot of misses, but never spent much in assets in his trades.

It works both ways, Phillies should have been more aggressive between 2000-2006, but the Garcia trade is the classic example of overpaying (and a lot of people thought so at the time, a questionable veteran for two top pitching prospects close to the majors).

One problem the Phillies have is Reading (like Texas League and PCL performances) makes teams wary of hitting prospects (though there's not a symmetric effect on pitchers, pitching well at Reading isn't a great predictor for Lehigh and the ML). One reason I'd invest in a big scoreboard or other device to make the park less HR friendly, that would help player development and make players more valuable as trading chips coming off a big season there. A good season at Lehigh, given it's seen as a neutral park in a neutral league, would up the trading value of some of our second tier prospects.

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em . . ."

Why do they have to be a playoff contender to start spending a little money and filling holes? The Cubs were looking like a .500 club at best in 2015 if they did not start spending money. As I have said, the Phillies are probably a half season behind where the Cubs were, but that does not mean they should not fill in with a piece or two this offseason. They need to fix the bullpen, sign at least one veteran starter to front the rotaion, and probably a left-handed corner OF/1B. These could all be players that are on a playoff contender in 2018. If they can get some of those pieces by dealing Galvis or Rupp they should think about it.

[Philsmania]

First, it took Epstein five years, he took over the Cubs in October 2011.
The Cubs after a 75 and 71 win season before he took over won 61 (2012), 66 (2013), and 73 (2014) games.
Three previous drafts:
2009:
2-79 Justin LeMahieu (11.4 WAR)
2011:
1-9 Javier Baez
So he didn't inherit much, but drafting high has it's benefits:
His first draft was a bust:
2012:
1-6 Albert Almora, 4 of his first 5 were HS, so the jury is still out, but after five years the odds are long
2013:
1-2 Kris Bryant
2014:
1-4 Kyle Schwarber
2015:
1-9 Ian Happ

What did he inherit on the field:
2011, Barney 2b (25), Castro SS (21), 5 starters over 30, Soto C (28), bacups DeWitt IF (25), Colvin OF (25), Campana OF (25)
SP Garza (27), Wells (28), Coleman (23), Dempster (34), Zambrano (30), [strike]Lopez/strike
RP Marmol (28), Samardjiza (26), Marshall (28), Russell (25)

Transactions:
2011-12: traded Sean Marshall for Travis Wood
traded Na and Cashner for Rizzo. A steal, but note he dealt two marginal prospects.
traded Ryan Dempster (35) off a good start for Kyle Hendricks
2012-13:
Rule 5 Hector Rondon RP
traded Matt Garza for Carl Edwards RP, Justin Grimm RP,
signed Jorge Soler to 8yr $27M contract - big LA deal
traded Clevenger and Feldman for Arrieta
2013-14:
traded Samardjiza for Addison Russell IF
2014-15:
signed John Lester (31 in 2015) to a 6yr $144M contract with a $10M buyout in 2021 when he's 37
traded Majica and Godley for Montero C
traded Straily and Valbuena for Fowler OF
signed Jason Hammel (32) to 2 yr $18M contract ($10M option in 2017 or $2M buyout)
2015-16:
signed Ben Zobrist (35) 4yr $56M contract
signed Jason Heyward (26) to 7yr $185M contract (with 2019 opt out, or 3 yr $77M deal if he opts out)
signed John Lackey (37) to 2 yr, $32M contract

So Epstein didn't spend real money until he spent 3 years rebuilding the team to be competitive, then only two MAJOR contracts the last two years, one second tier guy and two third tier FAs. Not exactly a big spender.
His trades were moving marginal ML players and second tier prospects for guys with question marks (Arrieta) or undervalued by their current teams (Rizzo, Hendricks). He also traded for some veteran patches like Montero, Fowler - probably because his drafting record wasn't much better than the guys before him so the pipeline was thin on ML ready talent.
Only one high priced LA player in five years made the team.

If it is true that this Cub team was more built on shrewd moves rather than from within, how long will its proverbial window of opportunity be open?

[Austinfan]

They're still not ready for a legitimate run in 2017, .500 if everything breaks right, but they're not a potential 90 win team like the Cubs in 2015.
So there's no urgency to make moves this winter, you always want to be opportunistic, which is what Epstein did his first three years, identified undervalued assets and obtained them cheaply, he had a lot of misses, but never spent much in assets in his trades.

It works both ways, Phillies should have been more aggressive between 2000-2006, but the Garcia trade is the classic example of overpaying (and a lot of people thought so at the time, a questionable veteran for two top pitching prospects close to the majors).

One problem the Phillies have is Reading (like Texas League and PCL performances) makes teams wary of hitting prospects (though there's not a symmetric effect on pitchers, pitching well at Reading isn't a great predictor for Lehigh and the ML). One reason I'd invest in a big scoreboard or other device to make the park less HR friendly, that would help player development and make players more valuable as trading chips coming off a big season there. A good season at Lehigh, given it's seen as a neutral park in a neutral league, would up the trading value of some of our second tier prospects.

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em . . ."

Why do they have to be a playoff contender to start spending a little money and filling holes? The Cubs were looking like a .500 club at best in 2015 if they did not start spending money. As I have said, the Phillies are probably a half season behind where the Cubs were, but that does not mean they should not fill in with a piece or two this offseason. They need to fix the bullpen, sign at least one veteran starter to front the rotaion, and probably a left-handed corner OF/1B. These could all be players that are on a playoff contender in 2018. If they can get some of those pieces by dealing Galvis or Rupp they should think about it.

Actually, it would make more sense to trade players like Asche, Lively, Pullin, Tocci, Canelo, Kingery, Mora, etc., who are unlikely to start for this team the next few years and may be supplanted by the next wave behind them. It would clear out 40 man roster room if you packaged 2 or 3 for 1 young prospect who was a better fit for their needs. This is what Epstein did so successfully, trade 2nd tier prospects for target prospects that other teams undervalued.

[Dirk41]

I'd love to see Kingery all the way to the Majors as a Phil

[bigegypt0417]

They're still not ready for a legitimate run in 2017, .500 if everything breaks right, but they're not a potential 90 win team like the Cubs in 2015.
So there's no urgency to make moves this winter, you always want to be opportunistic, which is what Epstein did his first three years, identified undervalued assets and obtained them cheaply, he had a lot of misses, but never spent much in assets in his trades.

It works both ways, Phillies should have been more aggressive between 2000-2006, but the Garcia trade is the classic example of overpaying (and a lot of people thought so at the time, a questionable veteran for two top pitching prospects close to the majors).

One problem the Phillies have is Reading (like Texas League and PCL performances) makes teams wary of hitting prospects (though there's not a symmetric effect on pitchers, pitching well at Reading isn't a great predictor for Lehigh and the ML). One reason I'd invest in a big scoreboard or other device to make the park less HR friendly, that would help player development and make players more valuable as trading chips coming off a big season there. A good season at Lehigh, given it's seen as a neutral park in a neutral league, would up the trading value of some of our second tier prospects.

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em . . ."

Why do they have to be a playoff contender to start spending a little money and filling holes? The Cubs were looking like a .500 club at best in 2015 if they did not start spending money. As I have said, the Phillies are probably a half season behind where the Cubs were, but that does not mean they should not fill in with a piece or two this offseason. They need to fix the bullpen, sign at least one veteran starter to front the rotaion, and probably a left-handed corner OF/1B. These could all be players that are on a playoff contender in 2018. If they can get some of those pieces by dealing Galvis or Rupp they should think about it.

Actually, it would make more sense to trade players like Asche, Lively, Pullin, Tocci, Canelo, Kingery, Mora, etc., who are unlikely to start for this team the next few years and may be supplanted by the next wave behind them. It would clear out 40 man roster room if you packaged 2 or 3 for 1 young prospect who was a better fit for their needs. This is what Epstein did so successfully, trade 2nd tier prospects for target prospects that other teams undervalued.

Epstein added talent where he could. From the ML and the MILB rosters.

[Austinfan]

I'd love to see Kingery all the way to the Majors as a Phil

Right now, there is no evidence that Kingery will be as good or better than Valentin, much less Hernandez (a 4 WAR player at age 26). So I'd definitely be willing to include him in a deal for say a young power hitting corner OF. Or trade Valentin and keep Kingery.

Canelo is going to be a slick fielding, questionable hitting SS, expendable,
Tocci a potential gold glove OF with a limited bat.
Knapp is stuck between Rupp and Alfaro.
Pullin showed promise as a hitter but is he a starter?
Bossart and Lino might interest some team as potential backup catchers
Mora has potential as a utility IF
Coppola has speed and gets on base

Lively is a 5th starter type right now, we have plenty.
Pinto had an off year, so I'd be reluctant to trade him unless someone wanted to bet on a rebound.
Arajuo has good stuff, but was passed by Rodriquez
Eshelman is a poor man's Viza right now

Point is we have plenty of second tier guys we can package in deals if we want to go that route, I'd only do so for prospects our scouts identify as undervalued and good fits for our team, that's how Epstein found some gems like Rizzo. I'd rather package these guys than trade players who are performing at the ML level, because obtaining second tier prospects for ML starters doesn't make sense for us. Of course, if someone wants to trade a bluechip (a top OF prospect blocked at the ML level), then all bets are off. But to trade Galvis or Rupp THIS year requires that player be a BA top 10 type with a very high probability of success at a high level.

[Les229]

The frenzy will start soon, maybe it has already has. The Phillies have plenty of money and they should go out and spend like a drunken sailor to get any hitter who ever hit 10 home runs and can put up any kind of stats on the arcane formulas for the sabermetrics boys.

The latest news has just come out that Justin Upton is available. Already the clamor has started. Nobody is asking why he is available, or why he seems to be available every year. Every team that he has played on (and it’s been a few) has been anxious to move him on. He had a reputation for dogging it in Arizona. I’ve seen him commit some really creative errors. The thing is, none of the teams that Justin has been on has played up to their perceived potential. I think it is fairly evident that he got his money for a long time and he doesn’t feel as though he has to bust it for anybody.

A few years back the Dodgers had a young impressive team. They decided to bring in a veteran hitter to show the way. They brought in Manny Ramirez and Manny was being Manny. Pretty soon some of the odthers were being Manny. The team never amounted to anything. They got a new GM and started rebuilding.

What I am saying is that building a truly winning team is about more than x’s and 0’s. It’s what the sabermetrics boys can’t measure, or really understand. I’d like to see the Phils pick up a couple of bats, but guys who they are sure want to win. I hope the Phils player assessment capabilities have improved. No more Delmon Youngs.