Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

julio 2017-01-14 04:11:14 UTC #978

California_Dreamin 2017-01-14 04:19:36 UTC #979

He'll get 2.5 and it will get settled.

Philsmania 2017-01-15 18:10:24 UTC #980

Canadian-born Saunders may be more interested in staying in Toronto.

julio 2017-01-16 22:02:28 UTC #981

20 posts were split to a new topic: Phillies To Sign Michael Saunders!

Philsmania 2017-01-16 22:18:08 UTC #982

Now just trying to figure out what numbers all these newcomers get.

Benoit has worn 53 almost his entire ML career and it is available, so he probably wears it here.

Kendrick has only worn 47 at the ML level and it is available, so I guess he wears that one.

Saunders wore 21 in Toronto and it is available here so I guess he gets it.

The others are harder to figure out.

Buchholz wore 61 & 11 in Boston. Ramos has 61 and the Phillies may not want to put Rollins' #11 back into circulation just yet. Another number ending in 1? But, of course, not 1!

Neshek's worn a bunch so he probably gets any available number under 50.

julio 2017-01-16 22:26:07 UTC #983

When the Saunders signing is officially announced (assuming he passes the physical), the Phillies will have to clear a roster spot for him. My money's on Luis Garcia (who is out of options, and who, if his history is any guide, will have to be outrighted at some point in 2017 anyhow - so why not now?).

Squire 2017-01-16 23:02:35 UTC #984

I'm projecting the Opening Day Lineup as follows:

2B Cesar Hernandez (L)
LF Howie Kendrick (R)
CF Odubel Herrera (L)
3B Maikel Franco (R)
RF Michael Saunders (L)
1B Tommy Joseph (R)
C Cameron Rupp (R)
SS Freddy Galvis (S)
RHP Jeremy Hellickson (R)

ZardozMD 2017-01-16 23:38:08 UTC #985

Like the Saunders deal. Provides a bit more roster depth and we definitely needed a left-handed hitter with some pop. Quinn likely gets a full year in AAA and we don't give up anything.

Saw a few people post their opening day lineups and noticed everyone's picking Rupp over Alfaro. Does Alfaro have any chance of being the everyday starter or does he still need a bit more work to get there?

Austinfan 2017-01-17 01:20:15 UTC #986

Alfaro will start the season at Lehigh.
He made good progress both at and behind the plate, but still has a ways to go both as a hitter and catcher.
Has the raw tools to be special, but not ready for prime time.

allentown 2017-01-17 03:12:00 UTC #987

And Rupp took a big step forward in 2016 and needs a year as the definite #1 guy in order to build value if the Phillies decide to trade him and go with Alfaro and Knapp post-deadline. Really, I can't think of a single advantage in bringing Alfaro out of ST as the starter.

andyb 2017-01-17 14:50:48 UTC #988

I don't disagree that you start Alfaro in AAA. He needs the at bats and they are almost certainly using the option. Give him 2 months to see where he is. At the same time I think they DO promote him if Rupp gets injured. Probably split the time between Knapp and Alfaro.

Where I disagree is Rupp. He had a nice first half but then the league caught up to him (652 second half OPS). Even with the better offense his defense regressed some. WAR of 1.0 in 2015 and 1.3 in 2016 with much more playing time. I'll be the first to say he has progressed to the point of being a legit major league starter. He hasn't taken a big step forward, however. He is still pretty replaceable if Alfaro progresses as anticipated.

Phils2020 2017-01-17 20:59:37 UTC #989

Who do you guys think the Phils take off the 40 man roster to make room for Saunders? Tyler Goeddel maybe? That is my best guess. Then try to get him to sneak him onto AAA Lehigh.

julio 2017-01-17 21:31:32 UTC #990

See https://www.philliesphans.com/t/phillies-2016-2017-offseason-discussion/43074/983?u=julio. If I were the GM, it would be Luis Garcia.

allentown 2017-01-17 21:38:40 UTC #991

The same could be said, to a larger extent about Saunders. I'm willing to bet on both bouncing back. Since Rupp doesn't have much trade value until he logs a plus 2017, I don't think there is much choice, unless we are willing to just write off Rupp for very cheap. There's no rush to do that, because Alfaro clearly isn't ready yet. As soon as he is, the job will be his and either Rupp or Knapp will be gone.

andyb 2017-01-17 23:08:54 UTC #992

Saunders has a little more of a track record.

VoteForKalas 2017-01-18 02:49:53 UTC #993

A. .711 OPS career hitter does not inspire much confidence. His best season came in 2016 so maybe at age 30 he can continue to improve, but otherwise in his career he was awful and injury prone to boot besides a ~263 PA stint in 2014. There are very good reasons why he was available and willing to take a 1 year deal here.

allentown 2017-01-18 02:59:37 UTC #994

Yeah, but that track record suggests the first half of 2016 was a huge positive aberration. Even with that great half season, Saunders as a corner OF is a career .711 OPS hitter as a corner OF, while Rupp is a .701 career OPS hitter as a catcher -- advantage Rupp. Neither fields his position in a plus manner.

Austinfan 2017-01-18 03:28:47 UTC #995

Rupp by most measures is a positive fielding catcher.
He had a .195 ISO and .750 OPS last year.
His walk rate went down and his K rate went up with his power, so he may have been overly aggressive, that's something they can work on with him.
Interesting little article on him suggesting he was a better hitter in 2016 than the stats showed:

Saunders has been a pretty consistent hitter since 2012
2012: .185 ISO .738 OPS
2013: .160 ISO .720 OPS
2014: .177 ISO .791 OPS
2016: .224 ISO .816 OPS
I'd say he's steadily progressed the last few years, despite a serious injury that cost him 2015.
So his career average significantly underestimates his value.

andyb 2017-01-18 04:50:43 UTC #996

Not sure that is true. Mediocre stats last year and the Phillies continue to bad-mouth him on the way he handles the pitching staff. And his second half 652 OPS coupled with mediocre offense at every other step of his career makes one doubt whether he can repeat his stats from last year. He has definitely shown he is more than a backup. But he has also not definitely shown he is an above-average starter either.

Austinfan 2017-01-18 05:02:11 UTC #997

The bar isn't high at catcher.
He's probably middle of the pack right now, any real improvement would put him in the top 10.
As the article points out, the improvement from 2015 to 2016 was real, and built around exit velocity.
To improve further, he has to be more consistent and a little more disciplined, that's the edge Joseph has over him as a hitter - both mash the ball but Joseph became more selective as the year progressed.