Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

zambonir 2016-11-29 18:53:44 UTC #536

Yeah I just don't know why you'd pay the trade price for a player who is a 31 year-old free agent after two seasons, unless the Twins are willing to take a lot of single A material. I guess the presumption is he wouldn't be expensive because he is a salary dump but he's not that expensive, multiple teams can definitely shop at that market. The That Ball's Outta Here article about this fantasized that Hernandez and Tocci could get it done - doubtful. And that the Phillies could flip him before next season which I suppose is technically true.

(I guess this belongs in the Winter 2017 thread now?)

julio 2016-11-30 02:44:44 UTC #537

Per Jayson Stark, A.J. Ellis may be in play:

BostonRoss 2016-11-30 03:27:01 UTC #538

It depends on what the trade price is. There are many combinations of prospects I'd consider giving up for two years of a 4-6 WAR player, with the possibility of getting first crack at re-signing him if he continues to rake, or to flip him for some other area of need if the Phils aren't contending by 2018.

The Phillies haven't had even a 5 WAR offensive player since 2011. The last time a Phillies hitter exceeded Dozier's 2016 WAR was Chase Utley in 2009. Dozier may not be able to keep it up, but he might. It seems worthwhile to gamble a little to get a player of that caliber.

bkeich 2016-11-30 04:16:30 UTC #539

So our plan is to acquire every available 2B to drive up the price on Hernandez? The Hunt Brothers tried this with silver.

Well, it is an interesting idea. I guess at least it is a sign that the full 40 man doesnt mean that the Phils management are done (nothing done of course but at least they might be trying to improve the ML team, which as it is awful).

SussexJay 2016-11-30 14:21:02 UTC #540

How about C. Hernandez and Ben Lively for Dozier? Would give Twins a rotation piece who is blocked in Philly and free up a 40-Man spot for Ellis or Blanco.
J

Soloman_grundy 2016-11-30 15:21:58 UTC #541

If that's the case I'd expect them to deal Rupp. Bring up Knapp and let him play 3-4 times a week with a supplement of Ellis 2-3 times. Knapp learns on the job while being an apprentice to Ellis. Young pitchers get to work with Ellis a couple times a month. Alfaro gets a full season at AAA.

Lawman 2016-11-30 15:25:44 UTC #542

This may make sense. I'm not sure you need Ellis and Rupp and Knapp....unless you really don't feel Knapp is ready and you want to start out with Rupp and Ellis and trade one of them mid-season. On the other hand, selling on Rupp now is selling high, If you wait, his value probably diminishes.

donaldorc 2016-11-30 15:26:56 UTC #543

On the other hand, it might increase. (Okay, I see the glass as half full).

Lawman 2016-11-30 16:17:46 UTC #544

True.

julio 2016-11-30 18:24:03 UTC #545

Zach Eflin, working his way back from surgery on his knees:

It will be interesting to see how he performs, with his chronic knee problems corrected; based on what was reported, today may have been the first time he pitched without pain in a long time - years.

donaldorc 2016-11-30 18:37:54 UTC #546

Here's hoping for a great recovery. I really enjoyed his starts last year, thought he had a lot of potential.

Philsmania 2016-11-30 19:15:56 UTC #547

Also during the upgrade shutdown, it was revealed that the young woman who is the colorful peanuts vendor at CBP is also a prominent figure in the alt right white supremacist movement. Hopefully, she won't be a Phillies vendor in 2017.

julio 2016-11-30 19:38:15 UTC #548

More former front-office talent in the organization:

zambonir 2016-11-30 19:46:30 UTC #549

If that's the case I'd expect them to deal Rupp. Bring up Knapp and let him play 3-4 times a week with a supplement of Ellis 2-3 times. Knapp learns on the job while being an apprentice to Ellis. Young pitchers get to work with Ellis a couple times a month. Alfaro gets a full season at AAA.

We already know they don't think Knapp is ready and want to pair Rupp with a veteran back-up. The problem is Knapp is on the 40 and wouldn't get to play a lot in AAA. But if they don't like Knapp as Rupp's back-up they probably don't like him more as the almost-starter (and Ellis shouldn't catch 80-90 games either).

I imagine there is still a good chance Knapp is traded, but they can also find the 40 space eventually. Rupp could be traded in July or next off-season. I don't think they will trade Rupp unless they are ready to have Alfaro in the majors (though you could also make the case to just do that now).

bigegypt0417 2016-11-30 19:59:54 UTC #550

Seems Klentak is building some good bench strength...

Soloman_grundy 2016-11-30 20:14:52 UTC #551

And we know this how?

zambonir 2016-11-30 20:22:24 UTC #552

Many, many media reports. Grain of salt, but that's the impression the beat writers have had for months.

Soloman_grundy 2016-11-30 23:11:38 UTC #553

You need to **** or get off the pot with Knapp. Alfaro needs to play everyday at Lehigh. So... you resign Ellis that gives you three C at Philly. Both Knapp and Rupp need to play. Seems to me that resigning Ellis means that either Rupp or Knapp is gone. Me, I'd sell high on Rupp and see what I had with Knapp for a year.

Soloman_grundy 2016-11-30 23:16:01 UTC #554

BTW, Saw this article today.

They seem to advocate trading for McCutchen. They seem to think it's a good idea to trade Jake Thompson/Rhys Hoskins/Sixto Sanchez....

I laughed out loud.

Austinfan 2016-12-01 18:34:15 UTC #555

Hellickson QO is fine, buys time for young pitchers to mature, especially at Lehigh and Reading. They're building up nice pitching depth, not sure Buchanan would have cracked the Lehigh rotation with Hellickson back, since that means Morgan/Thompson/Asher may start the year in Lehigh.

Nola - Eickhoff - VV - Hellickson - Eflin (can't wait to see him with healthy knees)
Gomez - Neris - Ramos - S Gonzalez
Really, at this point they should only be looking at top RPs.
But the numbers suggest why they would listen to offers for VV if they don't think he has #1 potential, they have plenty of #2/#3 type pitching prospects

I think the biggest struggle for Klentak is to resist the temptation to make a move to "win now," he almost has enough pitching, but this is where patience should pay off, let the pitchers grow up, the prospects mature in Lehigh and trade only to replace quantity (the 40 man roster squeeze) with quality (maybe a 3 for 1 deal for a top prospect).