On to the bullpen...who makes it, who rides the NE Extension back-and-forth?

[phillychuck]

OK who are the sure things, who are the least used pitchers?

Closer Candidates:
Seranthony
Neris
Robertson

Set-up guys:
Neshek
Nicasio
Hunter

Young guys with good stuff:
Rios
Arano
Ramos

Lefties:
Morgan
Pazos
Alvarez
Davis

That's a lot of bodies to shuffle between Lehigh Valley and Philly. Not sure which guys have options, either.

[el-pietro]

I think I saw some of the beat writers/bloggers suggesting that Mauricio Llovera could have a similar path to Seranthony ahead of him.

Heres a short twitter thread from Winkleman suggesting that he probably stays in the rotation for now but if he gets moved to the pen he could move through the system quickly. Probably one to keep an eye on but maybe not until later in the year.

Matt Winkelman (Matt_Winkelman)

[julio]

Relief pitchers on the 40-man roster who have option years unused:

Victor Arano
Austin Davis
Seranthony Dominguez
Edgar Garcia
Edubray Ramos
Yacksel Rios
James Pazos

Those who do not:

Jose Alvarez
Tommy Hunter
Adam Morgan
Hector Neris
Pat Neshek
Juan Nicasio
David Robertson

Barring injuries, the "easy" solution here is to come north with the seven guys w/o options, plus Dominguez - optioning Arano, Davis, Garcia, Ramos, Rios, Pazos.

The above obviously subject to change due to personnel changes (trades) and injuries.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think it is as hard as it looks.

Barring any trades or injuries Arano gets the shaft.

Otherwise any of Hunter, Neshek, Nicasio could still be moved. Maybe you can just trade Neshek and a few million for a lottery ticket or a fringe reliever with options.

If they sign a LHP that might make Morgan or Alvarez trade or release candidates. Or maybe one of them still is, given that they consider Robertson to be the top anti-lefty weapon.

Thinking about it they probably really do need to release someone (or make an unfavorable trade) because you can't flip-flop guys without options if there's nobody to demote. The 10-day DL and/or real injuries and/or occasionally deleting a 5th starter can only help you with that so much.

Another reason why I don't see Kimbrel happening. They'd have to trade or release one expensive player and you still wouldn't have a spot for Arano.

[andyb]

Not sure they would do it, but Nicasio would certainly pass through waivers if they sent him down. Of course he might be able to refuse assignment and all we'd get is the minimum salary from whatever team signs him.

If we move an expensive reliever we'll probably have to pick up at least half the salary. More likely scenario though is we will start with a couple of relievers on the DL. And then never have everyone healthy at once since beyond our top 3 guys (Robertson, Dominguez, Neris) we probably are fine mixing and matching the back half.

We'll definitely keep at least 2 left-handed relievers, especially with an all right-handed rotation. We'll want to turn around the lineup there occasionally, especially if the 5-inning starter is the rule rather than the exception.

[zambonir]

I think the reason Neshek has always been the logical trade candidate is he's good enough to be attractive, but he doesn't necessarily suit Kapler's usage preferences, especially given his age (short outings, no back-to-backs). If memory serves he also seemed least happy with the lack of a defined role/inning (like, he is willing to pitch whenever but wanted it to be the same from game-to-game).

But most of all he's not expensive - only $5.75 million because of the way his contract was structured (with a $500K trade bonus). Hunter and Nicasio make $9 million.

I think they like Nicasio, they had him before and he had good peripherals. They also still view Hunter and Robertson as guys who can get lefties out (we'll see about Hunter). If that's really the case they could still get by with one actual lefty for the 5th or 6th inning but I doubt they want to lose either of them from the roster completely.

[Austinfan]

Rios has great stuff but I don't think he'll ever have good enough command, touched 99 yesterday.

Nicasio was throwing 93 consistently with a good slider, solid middle relief candidate, overpaid but that's what money is for, right Mr. Middleton?

Pazos touched 94 but like Rios, has those command issues, I see an option in his future.

Not sure Alvarez is going to beat out Morgan, he has meh stuff, and not a great LOOGY. I can see him moved in a minor deal for an AAA player or A ball prospect.

I'd bet on a Neshek trade at some point, but at his age, a buyer might want to wait until June to see he still "has it."

[phillychuck]

If he still "has it," why would we trade him?

[zambonir]

Because they have to trade someone, either to make room for Arano or to increase the bullpen's optionality. Unless they waive or trade one of the lefties or the injuries take care of it for now.

All the off-season reporting just seemed to lean that way, suggesting they prefer Hunter to Neshek (he can give you more innings), or they just think Neshek is easier to trade. As much flak as Hunter took he put up twice as much WAR (albeit mostly because of IPs) with basically the same FIP and WHIP, and is younger.

My feeling is that given Neshek's age and history, better to trade him before he breaks or ends up having a bad year, rather than waiting to see what he can do. OTOH he only pitched 21 innings last year so maybe he'll be stronger this year.

It's mostly about money, Phillies would probably have to eat $4.5 million to trade Nicaso or Hunter, with Neris maybe only $2 million. Depending on return.

Some teams may also like the fact that Neshek is controllable though I doubt anyone wants to pay him $7 million in 2020 (especially given the way the market has changed even since he signed that deal).

[zambonir]

Saw this phrase on Philly.com twice today

Victor Arano, who is competing for a spot in the bullpen