Non-Phillies Hot Stove and Off-Season News/Notes

[zambonir]

We're probably gonna need it eventually.

Law: The Mets fail to learn from history. Will the Edwin Díaz deal doom them to...

Díaz’s season was incredible, but relievers who do this just don’t repeat it. The three players who had lower FIPs than Díaz did all saw theirs go up by over a full run the next year. Eric Gagné never came close to that level of dominance again. Aroldis Chapman was still elite, just not as much as so in his peak season, for the next two years and then dropped to merely above-average. The third, Craig Kimbrel, did it one more time, five years later, and then headed over the cliff.

[allentown]

The Phillies had a golden season based on Lidge's perfect saves record. Still re-signing him was an error. Baseball is a cruel sport: closers having a superb season are ridden overly hard. The smart GM allows them to cash in on their success elsewhere, as they seldom live up to their new contracts, unless named Rivera.

[zambonir]

The Phillies signed Lidge in July of 2008, so it was only based on what he'd done for three months, not on what happened in the fall or any irrational World Series joy, and they also probably would have paid him more had he hit full free agency. I don't think it was an error. Was only a three-year deal and while 2009 wound up being a disaster for him he mostly righted the ship by October and was still the closer in 2010. His deal was modest (even accounting for increased revenue/inflation) by a lot compared to this Diaz deal. The Wagner and Papelbon signings were also good.

[Philsmania]

Lidge had an interesting 2010. For the first four months, he wasn't much better than the Lidge of 2009. But then over the last two months, the Lidge of 2008 returned.

[zambonir]

It is always, always better to keep your relievers modestly priced and short-term. But that hasn't worked so great for the Phillies either. 2009-2011 Lidge was still better than Workman/Kennedy/Knebel/Familia over the last three years. Had Lidge been on cheaper one-year deals maybe they would have cut him loose, but who knows how they would have filled the hole (Madson was also terrible in 2009 when he had to close).

[Philsmania]

As I've said before, you really need to have a core of three relievers to build around each season. If you have to rebuild your bullpen from top to bottom every season--like the Phillies had to every year from 2016 to before this season--that's a big problem because it always seems like half the veterans, journeymen or guys from the minors don't work out. Better to have to fill three holes than six holes.

[andyb]

Qualifying Offer list:

Judge, DeGrom among 14 to get qualifying offers

Obviously the SS offers impact our thinking (Correa the notable exception without a QO). Plus Rodon, Bassitt, and Anderson if we were thinking of adding a starter. Remember we lose a 2 and a 5 plus a million in international dollars, so Turner and Boegarts are probably the ones worth it assuming we'd never be the top suitor for Rodon.

And the bar for signing Seranthony long term probably just got raised:

I’m told Robert Suárez’s deal with the #Padres is one of the largest guarantees in recent memory for a reliever without extensive closing experience. Could be as many as 5 years, per source. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi ( @jonmorosi ) November 10, 2022

[mdougherty12]

More details on Robert Suarez extension:

Suarez, Padres agree to five-year, $46 million deal (source)

[andyb]

He really is a pretty good comp for Seranthony. Stuff-wise anyway. He had only 1 year of service time so the first couple years of his deal are likely pretty cheap. The question with Seranthony is really whether we think he is good enough to be a $15 million a year closer. If we think the answer is yes, then giving him close to $50 million for 4-5 years is not out of line. He could get pretty expensive pretty quickly.

[fish]

More details on Robert Suarez extension:

mlb.com

Suarez, Padres agree to five-year, $46 million deal (source)

The Padres and right-handed reliever Robert Suarez have agreed to a five-year, $46 million contract, a source told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi. The club has not confirmed the agreement, which reportedly contains an opt-out after three years.

This has to be the most absurd contract ever given to a reliever. The guy is 31 with one year of experience. 5 years and 46 million?! Virtually every bullpen has a guy that has this kind of season out the blue. who do they think he’s going to be in 5 years?

[zambonir]

Wow and I liked Suarez as a guy for the Phillies to pursue if they were willing to go three years!

Doesn't seem like that crazy of a deal though, overall. We paid Knebel $10 and Hector got $8.5 from Houston. Robertson got $11.5 from us and that wasn't even necessarily to close (and was four years ago!).

The risk is the same as with any reliever but I don't think you have to worry about his track record. The stuff is the stuff, and the work in other countries was also meaningful.

[Taudawg]

Astros Part Ways With General Manager James Click

All that insight into what goes on in Tampa and Houston, he will no doubt find an opportunity.

[Taudawg]

Padres To Re-Sign Robert Suarez

5 years for 46mil. No thank you.

[zambonir]

It's extremely bizarre they couldn't throw him 2-3 years, except that this is the outcome they wanted (without technically not offering to bring him back).

[zambonir]

Mets' deal with Edwin Diaz has deferred payments until 2042

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Haha. Sounds like another Bobby Bonilla contract, but not quite as lengthy.

[zambonir]

If they really want a third reliever to join Seranthony and Alvarado who is better than anyone else they've had over the last five years (Hector still being the best of them but he was homegrown) it's gonna cost. In $ or trade price.

Sources: Astros giving Montero 3 years, $34.5M

[BostonRoss]

Hall of Fame ballot is out. Only new Phillie is Jayson Werth. None of the newcomers is likely to be elected. Beltran might have had a chance, but...you know.

Other ex-Phils include Rolen, Wagner, Rollins, and Abreu. With a weak ballot, this may be Rolen's year.

[Philsmania]

It will be interesting to see how much ground Rollins gains.

[zambonir]

I think Rhys will do just fine as a free agent. Yeah, Abreu is coming off a bigger year (and has had some others) but he's 35 and can't really play 1B either.

Hearing the Astros' deal with José Abreu is expected to be around $60 million.

— Chandler Rome ( @Chandler_Rome ) November 28, 2022