Yep. I know. Being the #4 seed looks ugly this season
About the only chance the Phillies have of not playing the Braves would be to start tanking for the 5 or 6 seed, and that would be a profoundly flawed approach (both competitively and financially).
I actually disagree though. The Phillies can hang with the Braves; their best chance is the five game series rather than the NLCS. And an NLDS against LA would be harder, merely for the travel (plus the Dodgers are still pretty good).
Premature to even think about that, the wild card round won't be easy either!
That is important. A couple of Wheeler wins and then scrounge one somewhere else is a possible scenario.
Might as well play the best in the postseason too. While everyone wants to avoid the Braves, I imagine the Braves have bad memories from last season too. Maybe we sneak Hoskins on the roster as a pinch hitter just to mess with them. Can't imagine Castro sniffing an AB during the postseason anyway. It might be like the presence of Matt Stairs causing Jonathan Broxton to break out into a sweat.
I don't think Hoskins will realistically be ready for that round. And they probably will carry the max pitchers for it too (in the wild card, maybe not).
But again: premature. Gotta not only win the first round, but do so in a way that sets Wheeler up to even make two starts. Even then, wouldn't like our chances in a Game 5. Winning in four like last year is probably the best path, even if there's no way to repeat what happened with Strider last year.
I mean... they would know. If he's not with the team in the wild card round that would mean he's actively working out in Clearwater, and if he is with the team, they're probably not going to limit him to secret/indoor BP.
I also still don't think they will carry an extra hitter in the second round. Maybe not even the first. Last year's usage patterns certainly suggest that was overkill, but if they do it's not going to be to for bluffing purposes. Castros isn't really in the picture either way IMO, the extra spot would go to Pache once roster is back to 26.
I agree. Even if he is physically ready, the Phillies need to make sure he isn't. He'll be sooo rusty. He'll have no minor league games to get back in a hitting groove. We know he will be a big defensive negative. Waving the white flag to play him in the playoffs.
To AndyB: and that just wastes a roster spot which we might need during playoffs.
I mean I get andy's argument, it's a roster spot they likely won't need, especially if they carry five. A guy who can hit just one home run for you might be more useful than carrying Pache. But Pache obviously gives you more utility, including as a ghost or pinch runner. And if Castro actually is a candidate I'd definitely take Hoskins. There is no chance he plays a game at 1B and maybe not DH either. Bench only.
But I just think the timetable is probably longer. And there's not going to be cloak and dagger. If we hear that Rhys is facing live pitching sometime between now and the end of the regular season he might be a consideration by the NLCS but the NLDS starts just two weeks from Saturday.
No ghost runners in the playoffs at least. I actually wish Pache was a better baserunner. He definitely appears likely to not get many starts if at all in the postseason. Imagine Sosa is more likely to get in the lineup than Pache is against a left-handed pitcher.
It really feels like we are going with a set lineup with the only possible platoon being Marsh and Rojas. Cave will probably be around. Just not sure he'll get into many games. We also hope Bryce will be a full time 1B and not DH.
I wonder if that will be the only platoon, because today for instance, Bryce isn't at 1B, which means he might not be ready to play 1B every day.
ah right forgot about the ghost runner. But all the more reason to keep a guy who can pinch-run, pinch-hit or double-switch in an extra-innings game then.
I think Harper will play 1B full-time. Maybe he misses one per series. At this point they are past needing to test his ability to do it and more into resting him so he'll be able to do it, I reckon.
Cave would presumably PH for Rojas and then move into LF a few times. I could see them doing the Pache/Rojas OF against a lefty once or twice though. It's just hard to tell what Pache is capable of at this point given how small the sample is and how much time he missed.
While it is a relatively small sample size, Rojas has better BA, OBP, SGL, and OPS against RHP than Cave does. Against LHP, Cave is much worse than Rojas. So why would Cave pinch hit for Rojas ever against any pitcher?
Well you answered your own question. Our manager consistently presses platoon match-ups, which do trump small sample size. So much so that he probably will in fact start Cave/Marsh against some RHP instead of Marsh/Rojas. And if he ever does do a Pache/Rojas starting OF Cave would still probably get in (though after Marsh).
I would personally just take the defense (including Marsh, who looks really good in LF, while Rojas also makes Castellanos better).
I think z has nailed this pretty well..statistics don't always tell the whole story, and a manager may trust his own perception of talent beyond what the stats say, especially when the stats are limited by sample size. I don't share Rob's enthusiasm for Cave, but he knows a lot more than I do...
You're always a little loose with the edit button (even if it's just well-meaning typo corrections) Chuck but it seems like this time you put part of your own post or someone else's in mine?
I think the overall gospel of platoon advantage as well as some still obvious holes in Rojas as a hitter make it perfectly reasonable. And they also really have no choice. Hall can't play LF and while I'd like to see Muzziotti, he cooled off and would be unlikely to be better at the plate. It would be nice to think they are also trying to decide who actually makes the playoff roster but it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have a single lefty bat on the bench, and Cave's the only one on the team currently.