Nola and Phils Agree to Extension

[Lawman]

Scott Lauber (ScottLauber)

[Squire]

Seems like a great deal (mostly for the Phillies). Covers 3 arb years, 1 free agent year and a club option covering a second free agent year. The Option year is for $16M

[Patchmk88]

Yes this is an awesome deal!

[andyb]

Agree. That seems great to me. Was worried the free agent years would be mid-20s even this far out. In arbitration he might have made 6, 12, and 20 for 3 years if he continues to pitch well, so this is less than that on average with a free agent year. Lower AAV too at the back end of the deal because of the lower paid first year.

Well done by the Phillies.

[VoteForKalas]

Agree, good job by Klentak and a strong signal talented players like Nola want to stay here and put winning first.

[saycheese]

Good deal for the Phillies and for Nola, Says a few things, one to give up potentially two free agent years means Nola likes it here, two the Phillies are being smart getting him signed up quickly.

[julio]

Woo Hoo!

Details:

Jeff Passan (JeffPassan)

[el-pietro]

Fantastic news. This has made my day. Assuming they exercise the option (and I can't think of many reasons they wouldn't barring injury or complete loss of form) then this takes up him to his 29th birthday. Maybe they can agree an extension for another 4 or so years around the time of the option year and get him up to 33/34 or so.

[allentown]

This deal increases the ability of Phillies to sign FAs to 5-year deals (or fewer years).

[Florida_Sunshine]

Very good observation.

[zambonir]

I think this is a very nice deal for Nola too given the landscape and risk that always exists for pitcher. Smart of him to strike now coming off the elite season. Still likely costs him money but that's the security trade-off.

[gmwannabe]

nice to see the phils step up here. smart move. i think, with this money coming out now, confirms that bryce isn't coming to the phils. klentak is starting to spend the money in other ways. i still they are good enough to contend the way they are. i fully expect the young pitchers to improve this year and keep the phils in the race for the whole season. hope bryce takes to chicago and enjoys it. he could have ruled The Bank.
gm

[Austinfan]

It costs Nola potential money, but after you pocket $30M after taxes and agent fees, the chance to make an additional $10-15M after taxes is far less important than lifetime security. And Nola isn't a horse with zero chance of injury (and even horses have broken down after 6-7 season).

Good deal for both sides, Nola is guaranteed the life of Riley and the Phillies have cost certainty.

[andyb]

I don't think this has anything to do with the money available to sign Harper or Machado. The money to Nola this year is only $6 million and the AAV is another $5 million (and will save AAV in a couple of years). Cot's contracts today has us $49 million under the threshold with Nola accounting for $5.625 million. Plug in $11.25 million and we are still in the neighborhood of $43+ million under the luxury tax.

Plenty of room for a $30 million player. I suppose it could get close if they still wanted Keuchel or Kimbrel, but my impression is that they were always less interested in those guys unless they get shutout of the big 2.

[zambonir]

Yup this is the opposite of a move away from Bryce or Machado. They've got cost certainty and have just saved themselves money from the 2022 and 2023 budget/luxury tax.

I truly don't understand/can't believe why the Phillies would be associated with Kimbrel, except for the part where they have money. Keuchel, agreed, is either a back-up plan or only if he comes cheap (or in tandem with Harper).

[bkeich]

Phils get 2 years of free agency in the deal (the 2nd being an option year). GREAT DEAL. Basically, Nola is here through his prime and the cost is not excessive, even now he is better than the $16M club option that is his highest salary in the contract. There is NO chance had they go to arbitration that the cost would have been this low. I dont know who Nola's agent is but this is a crazy team friendly contract for a guy who could have probably made 30-50% more than this just by going to arbitration every year assuming he had just good seasons.

[julio]

Phils get 2 years of free agency in the deal (the 2nd being an option year). GREAT DEAL. Basically, Nola is here through his prime and the cost is not excessive, even now he is better than the $16M club option that is his highest salary in the contract. There is NO chance had they go to arbitration that the cost would have been this low. I dont know who Nola's agent is but this is a crazy team friendly contract for a guy who could have probably made 30-50% more than this just by going to arbitration every year assuming he had just good seasons.

The benefit to Nola is that he gets paid even if he loses a full season (or more) to TJ surgery. His career earnings, and his financial security for life, are no longer dependent on his not suffering a catastrophic arm injury. That ain't chicken feed.

The Phillies assume all the risk of a Nola injury, and in return they get his services for what is almost certainly well below market rate if he stays healthy. This is as win-win as it gets.

[bkeich]

The benefit to Nola is that he gets paid even if he loses a full season (or more) to TJ surgery. His career earnings, and his financial security for life, are no longer dependent on his not suffering a catastrophic arm injury. That ain't chicken feed.

The Phillies assume all the risk of a Nola injury, and in return they get his services for what is almost certainly well below market rate if he stays healthy. This is as win-win as it gets.

Well, of course he was going to get paid if he got hurt anyway, what he would not have gotten was the raises. But honestly, even if he lost a season he probably would have done better in arbitration that those numbers, he left alot of money on the table. That said, you are right, he is "set for life" now, it might be what I would do also, no real reason to play the lottery to win $70M if someone is willing to give you $45M.

The Phils made a very good deal here, there is almost certainly a large savings and getting Nola's age 28 and 29 seasons at those prices is a remarkable deal (hopefully). Even if he regressed to a 3.75 ERA Player by then he would easily get $20M/season in those years, if not more.

[zambonir]

I don't think he left a lot of arbitration money on the table but he definitely left some FA money on the table (assuming there's no salary cap or decline in MLB revenues or other major CBA changes, which is another reason to do this).

The arb years portion of the contract is:

2019: $6M (let's include bonus, since that's also close to what he wanted in arb)
2020: $8M
2021: $11.75M

By comparison DeGrom got $4 million and $7.4 million in his equivalent seasons, before jumping to $17 million this year.

Gerrit Cole made $3.75 and $6.75 and just won $13.5 in arbitration.

So he's definitely giving up between $3 and 10 milllion in 2021, dependent on how good his 2020 is. But he's possibly getting a little extra these first two years.

It's definitely more about the $19.25 million guaranteed should he get hurt between now and 2022.

[Austinfan]

The first few million are far more valuable than $20M five years down the road with less than 100% probability of ever seeing that money.
Real money that sets you up for life v "play money" that can allow you to be stupid after baseball.