News of Phormer Phillies, 2021

[BostonRoss]

Let’s not get carried away about Pivetta. He pitched almost 400 innings for the Phillies with a 5.50 ERA and gave up 72 home runs. He’s pitched three games for the Red Sox.

[Philsmania]

Let’s not get carried away about Pivetta. He pitched almost 400 innings for the Phillies with a 5.50 ERA and gave up 72 home runs. He’s pitched three games for the Red Sox.

Pivetta was here for what could best be described as a revolving door of pitching coaches (and coaching philosophies)--and some of those pitching coaches weren't very good--and management (both on the field and in the front office) that left much to be desired. However, I agree that at this point, Pivetta probably is what he is. He was one of many guys who came up to Philadelphia around that time--see also Velasquez, Williams, Kingery, to a lesser extent Hoskins--who probably didn't stand a chance with the guys running things (while Crawford got dealt before they could mess him up).

[David_Criss]

Pivetta and Velasquez were supposed to be Nola and Wheeler at one time......Both are still getting chances. It says a lot that VV didn't enter last nights game.

[andyb]

It would not be the last time some kid with a good arm figured things out at age 28. Now we might have lost him over the winter in 40-man moves, so it was probably a deal we had to make - but sending him and a useful additional prospect (Seabold) for what we got in return from Workman and Hembree is what will hurt no matter what Pivetta does.

[bkox]

It would not be the last time some kid with a good arm figured things out at age 28

Dave Stewart comes to mind.

[David_Criss]

Good point. You can look at two former recent Phillies, too. Jake Arrieta was mediocre at best until his age 28 season and was dominant until he came to Philly. Charlie Morton is another late bloomer, too.

[zambonir]

Let’s not get carried away about Pivetta. He pitched almost 400 innings for the Phillies with a 5.50 ERA and gave up 72 home runs. He’s pitched three games for the Red Sox.

We're Phillies phans! It's our God-given right to expect him to turn into Curt Schilling!

The Seabold part of the deal hurt more, not because he will definitely turn into anything, it was an overpay for salary relief.

[el-pietro]

Of course if we hadn't made the move and fell short of the playoffs we might be wondering what if we'd made that (or another similar) deal.
It was remarkable how previously competent or mediocre relievers became the worst versions of themselves in red pinstripes in 2020.
David Phelps had an ERA+ of 169 in Milwaukee in 2020 and a career average of 104 prior to 2020, so he was probably due for some negative regression, but a 36!?

[andyb]

I was all for making a deal and on the surface based on what Workman did in 2019 the deal should have helped (Hembree was just depth). Whether scouts should have said that Workman was not the pitcher he was in 2019 is a different story. There was some favorable luck for him, but he was really hard to hit that year.

Phelps too. One can be all for making deals, but the deals have to work. Did we add damaged or tired arms when we could have added better arms for the same price? It is one of the many reasons Klentak was fired. At some point a GM needs to be judged on the results of the moves they make, not on the supposed analytic foundation that made those moves seem reasonable.

[zambonir]

There was just too much pressure last year. Klentak's bullpen plan may have still worked in a normal season, and they certainly wouldn't have had to make the first trade they could so early in the season. It's just incredible that both of the better guys bombed so hard, and Hembree wasn't even as good as Hale.

Even as bad as the bullpen was, they could have made up those 1-2 games into the playoffs with another starting pitcher (particularly given all the doubleheaders).

In any case, it wasn't a terrible trade, because the Phillies' need was so great, and the price ultimately wasn't that high. But it would still rankle if Pivetta turns it around, and he surely has a better chance of doing so than Tom Eshelman or Jacob Waguespack.

[Philsmania]

Gauging the likelihood of a Pivetta late-blossoming, were Dave Stewart, Curt Schilling, Jake Arrieta and Charlie Morton ever as bad as he has been?

[BostonRoss]

If Pivetta turns into Curt Schilling, I hope for his sake it's from the neck down...

[andyb]

Actually yes for most of them. Stewart certainly. Arrieta had a 6+ then a 7+ ERA his last 2 years with Baltimore. Morton was pretty bad age 24-26. Schilling is the only one who was not bad at some point beyond their age 22 season of the group.

[BostonRoss]

Of course, we remember the relatively few who turned it around and forget the many more who just never made it. There are some who make it, but there are so many more Eickhoffs and Livelys and Thompsons and Ashers.

[andyb]

There are many more that failed, but that list narrows when you look at pitchers that theoretically have at least mid-rotation stuff like Pivetta has. Very often a guy like Eickhoff or Cole Irvin has a little success the first time around the league with modest stuff but it is much rarer for them to sustain that success.

In all likelihood Pivetta will not have a good career. There is just like a 20%-30% chance that he might.

[zambonir]

Yeah compared to Lively and Thompson and Asher, if not Eickhoff, Pivetta already made it. Sticking for more than a season is one type of challenge; having a career is another.

It's also relative to the Phillies' expectations for him. He entered 2019 as our #3 starter, with hopes of becoming the #2 as Arrietta was already fading. He was the signature failure of the Kapler/Young regime, in a season where they did not add any veteran starters due to their confidence in what they had. A mistake they had to correct with Wheeler just like this year they had to correct last year's similar bullpen mistake.

[Philsmania]

I thought injuries derailed Eickhoff. Perhaps his modest stuff would have caught up to him anyway but it's also possible that his getting hurt cost him the opportunity to adjust on the go.

Thompson was a top 100 prospect who suddenly flatlined when he reached the big leagues. His ML debut in which he got rocked after dominating up in Lehigh was really a negative inflection point for him, similar to how Domonic Brown's August 2010 callup was for him.

[zambonir]

Injuries were certainly a factor for him. Though his career WAR also looks better than Pivetta because he didn't even get the chance to put up a couple of negative seasons.

It feels like all these guys ended up getting jerked around somewhat in terms of call-ups and bullpen/starter usage. OTOH if any of them truly had "it" that wouldn't have mattered (or wouldn't have even happened, because they just would have pitched their way into the MLB rotation and stayed).

[andyb]

Eickhoff was probably someone who needed to be 100% healthy and not lose any stuff to succeed. Once he had some minor injuries, 90% of what he was was just not going to be enough. It is one reason power pitchers often age better (as we hope with Wheeler) in that they can lose a little stuff and still be effective, especially as they gain veteran knowledge.

[David_Criss]

Deivy Grullon claimed by Rays.