We probably could have had Kintzler for that price if they'd done the major league deal., And the recency bias also includes the fact that Kintzler was the closer on a playoff team. And that he's been a closer at other times in his career too. Which to my mind is not all that relevant, but still matters to some GMs (including ours).
And Kintzler's incentives are going to include games finished, he's obviously expecting to be in the 9th inning mix. Bradley hasn't spent that much time as a closer himself.
I still feel like Phelps could be the one that burns us but obviously the Phillies were correct not to pick up his option. I suppose if Kintzler succeeds he'll make nearly as much as that option was, but if so, no one will be complaining.