My Top 100 Prospect list

Austinfan 2017-08-31 21:05:57 UTC #1

I thought the Phillies were deep last year, but they're even deeper this year, and that's excluding some guys there just isn't enough information on to make a good judgment (recent LA signings).
And this excludes the following "graduates" from the last two seasons:
Graduated 2017: Alfaro (2), Hoskins (5), Williams (7), Pivetta (15), Lively (16), Knapp (24), Stassi (37), Leiter (LS)
Graduated 2016: Thompson (3), Velaquez (5a), Eflin (9), Ramos (19), Joseph (long shot)
ranking. (last year's ranking) NAME (age)

Some notes -
I dropped Moniak b/c he just hasn't stepped up, a top tier prospect should be "flashing" talent at this point.
I think Ortiz is very underrated, ask yourself if he was American, where would he be drafted this summer off his Williamsport peformance at age 18.
I moved Hall way up after I saw his road performance, Lakewood really suppresses power hitter numbers
As usual, until they have a track record, I discount LA signings and high draft picks. They got to earn their ranking!
And some guys, who knows? Anyone have a clue about the Russian?

Top Tier

(8) Sanchez (19) - 96-98. Work in progress, but nothing to project, just a matter of polishing his change and curve.
(24) Kingery (23) – great season at Reading, .335 OBP at Lehigh suggests he’s not quite ready to be a leadoff hitter in the Show
(1) Crawford (22) – a year of mediocrity in AAA ended in July, cooled a bit in August, could use another half season in AAA
(11) Ortiz (18) – at Williamsport and was a top player going against college kids, sky is the limit
Haseley (21) – they’ll probably tweak his mechanics in the FIL, look for a rapid ascent starting next year

Next Tier

'6. (7) Kilome (22) – steady progress, like a lot of tall fireballers, command is still an issue, probably 2 years away
7. (1) Moniak (19) – hasn’t lived up to the pre-draft hype, moving into the “show me” stage of his career
8. (10) Randolph (20) – light went on, 2nd half: .268/.361/.445/.806
9. (12) Anderson (23) – 92-95 t97. Changeup, slider, and curveball. Good feel for pitching. Needs to get stronger – 110 IP is career high
10. (13) Medina (20) - 91-94 with a plus curve and changeup, solid year at Lakewood
11. (30) Eshelman (23) – dominant at Lehigh, 13 BB in 114 IP, might just be the next Hendricks
12. (-) D Hall (22) – how good was his Lakewood season? Road: .298/.363/.640/1.003, needs better discipline but should destroy FSL
13. (50) Romero (20) – dominant at Lakewood, didn’t miss a beat at Clearwater
14. (34) Irvin (23) – 144 IP between Clearwater and Reading, HR problems in Reading prepares him for CBP
15. Howard (21) – getting his feet wet in Williamsport, should start at Lakewood and finish in Clearwater next year
16. (21) Garcia, Elniery (22) – lost season due to suspension, but flashing at the end of the year, rusty.
17. (62) Rios (24) – turned it around in 2017 and got a call up
18. (23) Pinto (23) – velocity jumped in the pen, cameo in Philly but needs another year to refine his stuff
19. (18) Aruno (22) – 94-97, arm trouble in a so-so season at Reading
20. (42) Tromp (23) – breakout year at Reading, .819 OPS, more HR at home, more XBH on road, needs better plate discipline
21. (43) Tocci (22) – took another step up at Reading, needs to raise his OBP b/c he still lacks power
22. (27) Grullon (21) – offensive behind the defense, but already at Reading and shows flashes of power, he’ll get a few years to develop
23. (64) Morales (17) –ML body and velocity, wasn’t overmatched in the GCL, had command issues as you’d expect.
24. (54) Gamboa (19) – improved in every aspect of his game at Lakewood, watch out when he fills out a little
25. (39) Edgar Garcia (20) – 91-95 with plus slider changeup, good year until August when he ran out of steam
26. (-) Mills (21) – first full season, 120 IP. 22BB, 134K, mostly in the SAL
27. (66) Torres (17) – 2B prospect, calling card is speed, hit .333 in the DSL
28. (58) Dominquez (22) – elite stuff but can’t stay healthy, Velasquez redux?
29. (-) Young (19) – 7’0 and slowing adding velocity, 53 IP, 13BB, 61K, jumps out given his size
30. (6) Quinn (24) – durability is still a big issue, just can’t count on him as more than a 4th OF at this point

Third Tier

'31. (-) Fitch (22) – showed a good batting eye, hit tool
32. (-) Suarez (22) – dominant in Lakewood, down to earth in Clearwater
33. (25) Valentin (23) – bad luck with injury, should play at Lehigh next year
34. (-) J Gomez (20) – he can flat out hit, but where does he play?
35. (31) Therrien (24) - broke out with 95 FB, plus curve, impressed in 2016, pitched well in Lehigh but small margin of error in the show
36. (17) Rivero (22) – has the RP FB, added a slider, meh season at Reading, will probably be at Lehigh next year
37. (9) Cozens (23) – exposed at Lehigh, needs another year to work on swing mechanics, pitch recognition
38. (35) Falter (20) – progressed nicely with solid season at Lakewood, 89-92 t93. Good changeup and curve, room to fill out.
39. (40) Fanti (20) – crafty lefty continues to dominate, needs a bit more pop but plenty of time to add it
40. (-) Seabold (21) – RP to protect his arm after college, probably start at Lakewood next year
41. (79) Tavares (23) – jumped from Clearwater to Lehigh and didn’t miss a beat, marginal stuff, but top results, needs more polish
42. (-) Guthrie (21) – won’t get a good read on him until next season
43. (-) Mezquita (19) – absolutely dominant in the GCL
44. (65) Gonzalez (17) – held his own in the GCL
45. (-) Pelletier (19) – good GCL season but a little old (turned 19 in August)
46. (-) Muzzioti (18) – needs to fill out, real good bat control
47. (-) Bucio (18) – keep an eye on him, walk machine who couldn’t hit in the DSL, this year good eye to go with a much improved bat
48. (-) McGarry (23) – sinkerballer dominated the SAL, pretty solid in Clearwater
49. (-) Hammer (23) – flamethrower, 56 IP, 80K in A ball
50. (-) Bettancourt (23) – 55IP, 75 K, pitched better at Clearwater than Lakewood, average stuff (low 90s, cutter, 12-6 curve K pitch), great results
51. (72) Pickett (20) – still waiting for his breakout, hit better this year but nothing special
52. (53) Arauz (22) – effective cutter in the low 90s, good Lakewood, better Clearwater, decent starter, dominant RP
53. (61) A Davis (24) – dominant LH RP when he’s healthy, that may be the key going forward
54. (56) Leftwich (23) – solid season in Clearwater, 80 IP, 98K
55 (-) Holmes (19) – decent but not great GCL debut for an older player with a full-sized body
56. (-) Lindlow (18) – decent GCL debut validates 5th rd selection
57. (28) Tirado (22) –can’t teach 100 MPH, unfortunately, may not be able to teach command and control, tease
58. (46) Singer (23) – dominant at Clearwater, pumpkin at Reading, but young enough to bounce back next year
59. (61) Liebrandt (24) – lacks velocity, but gets hitters out in AAA ball, can that translate to the Show?
60. (36) Gilbert (23) – average stuff for a LH SP, but great control
61. (76) Mora (24) – bounced back at Reading, though home field effect, .723 on the road, .280 in SSS at Lehigh, utility is in his future
62. (38) Pullin (23) – started strong in Reading, faded away in Lehigh, still young enough to turn it around next year
63. (41) Coppola (23) – speed, decent arm, fast, draws BB but needs to add strength, get his BA up, will repeat at Reading
64. (44) Brito (19) – good plate discipline for young hitter, good April at Lakewood, then struggled, probably should repeat
65. (-) Requena (20) - 89-9, loopy curveball, and a changeup that can. Good command for his age, solid A ball season
66. (-) Parkinson (21) – very good debut at Williamsport
67. (73) Sandberg (22) – got jumped to Reading and held his own, still lacks plate discipline and struggles with contact, but there’s hope
68. (-) Waguespack (23) – came out of nowhere, solid at Clearwater and didn’t miss a beat in Reading
69. (69) Llovera (21) – 92-96 t97, showed flashes, struggled some as a starter in Lakewood
70. (32) Stobbe (20) – really struggled in Williamsport, future is questionable
71. (-) H Rodriquez (23) – over his head in Lehigh after a good start in Clearwater
72. (-) Mario Sanchez (22) – acquired for Cordero, meh FB, good curve and command, pitches to contact, decent year at Reading
73. (48) Canelo (22) – struggled hitting in Reading, but BB rate improved, has a little pop, glove will buy time for his bat
74. (-) Guzman (18) – OK in the GCL, but small, lacks power, will have to develop a hit tool
75. (-) Paulino (22) – awful start, solid finish at Lakewood

Suspects

'76. (20) Gowdy (20) – TJ surgery, we’ll see in 2019
77. (-) Kuznetsov (19) – I have no idea what he’s throwing, but no one can hit it in the GCL
78. (-) L Rodriquez (19) – limited PT, but 21BB/14K in 109 GCL AB the last two years, someone to watch, especially as a catcher
79. (29) Viza (22) – zero progress at Reading, but young enough that they’ll be patient
80. (-) Cabral (21) – Clearwater numbers probably SSS mirage
81. (64) Stephen – didn’t show a lot in Williamsport
82. (55) Cumana (21) – slipped in Clearwater, needs strength and better plate discipline, glove is excellent
83. (-) Rivas (20) – hit in Lakewood, but no power or plate discipline,
84. (-) Alcantara (20) – FB jumped to 90-93, might be more there
85. (-) A Brown (19) – holding his own at Williamsport
86. (-) Silva (18) – another skinny LA pitcher who held his own in the GCL and has upside
87. (-) J Garcia (22) – a little overage in Williamsport, but 53 IP, 72K is worth noting
88. (45) Watson (24) – recovered the lost velocity, but didn’t show enough to have much hope
89. (68) Nunez (24) – meh season at Reading means he may soon be passed by
90. (62) Walding (24) – big HR year a Reading artifact, struggles to make contact
91. (71) L Williams (21) – not making much progress, BB rate down, K up in Lakewood
92. (-) Alastre (20) - .300 for his MILB career, but no discipline or power, has never played full-time
93. (51) Dyer (22) – lights out as a RP in his debut, missed 2017 with injury
94. (52) B Quinn (23) – big RH RP struggled with command/control in Clearwater
95. (-) Lartique (22) – has some hit tool, can he catch?
96. (-) Rivero (22) – some hit tool, line drive power, no plate discipline
97. (47) Numata (25) – didn’t hit enough at Reading given his age, but catchers often blossom late, especially converted IFs
98. (59) Bossart (24)– bat didn’t step up in Clearwater
99. (-) Carrasco (22) –starting to fill out, Fastball 92-94 T96, mediocre slider, ok in Williamsport, struggled in Lakewood
100. (-) Rosso (21) – longshot with a big body, has flashed so far

Long Shots

(22) Appel (26) – not a starter, not suited for RP
(49) Pujols (21) – still can’t hit the damn ball
(57) Murray (27) – flatlined
(59) Martin (24) – power but no contact for RH 1B
(60) McLoughlin (23) – injured and overaged
(67) Luis (21) – never stepped up
(70) Laird (24) – too old for his league
(75) Windle (25) – decent 2nd half after horrendous start, still a prospect only b/c he’s a LH RP
Perkins (27) – hit the career wall
Green (23) – lost season, must start at 3B at Reading next year to have a ML shot
Stankiewicz (24) – system fodder showed some SSS pop at Reading, fluke or late bloomer?
Denato (25) – poor man’s Milner

bkeich 2017-08-31 23:54:05 UTC #2

Even 4th OF would be a stretch. How about counting on him to play 20-40 games and provide some speed. Is that even worth having? Yea, maybe, after all the 60 day DL is unlimited I think and he will be on it at some point every year.

zambonir 2017-09-01 01:46:24 UTC #3

The question of Quinn's prospect ranking and the question of his potential 2018 role are basically separate (if still related). Someone had speculated he may go AFL but I suppose he is too advanced for that, maybe winter ball? Or is rest/recuperation more important than ABs?

I still think he or Tocci get put in a trade, unless another OF is part of a bigger one.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-01 03:59:57 UTC #4

AF...enjoy the list and won't quibble much except I simply do not believe the Phils have 73 better prospects than Guzman. There are many who think he is the best of a strong group of GCL infield prospects. I think you have grossly undervalued him, he soon will be a Top 30 prospect, I suspect.

andyb 2017-09-01 04:50:10 UTC #5

In addition to Guzman, Brito and Stobbe are almost certainly top 30. Defensive value is important. Brito did just about as well as Moniak did this year for instance at a similar age and has almost as much defensive value. Stobbe looks like a 30 HR guy potentially who is also good defensively. Guzman is a true SS, probably the best we have outside of Crawford and is really young. When he fills out he could easily be a 10-15 HR guy also. I think I like him a bit more than Gamboa though the two are pretty close. I also would not dismiss Brayan Gonzalez who does not bring quite as much to the table defensively but compares favorably to a Jose Lopez on the offensive side.

These lower minors infielders are good even if their topline stats are mediocre. Tools and defense matter.

allentown 2017-09-01 13:27:33 UTC #6

That's a conclusion born out of frustration. Hamels was always injured, until he wasn't, then he proved a very durable SP. If all of Quinn's injuries were leg injuries, I'd be more concerned, but they aren't. He made a bad slide and injured his elbow.

allentown 2017-09-01 14:06:52 UTC #7

I agree that Ortiz is very under-rated. I won't have him as high as 4, but very definitely well within my top 10. I don't have Kilome quite that high. I think perhaps 10. I'm a Tocci guy. Definitely top 15 for me. Gamboa and Dominguez also move up a dozen or more slots for me. I still see Cozens as top 20 -- the power is still there and wasn't largely a Reading artifact, he still needs to learn to hit lefties and bendy pitches. Quinn near top 10 for me, injuries yes, but also huge talent. Guthrie higher for me, I like both Pelletier and Muzzioti a LOT more. Tirado very iffy, because control hard to learn, so low probability, high ceiling for a reliever -- early 30s. You WAY underestimate Brito and Stobbe. Young guys will have early struggles.

Haven't really focused on a top prospects list yet, but I think my top 25 are:
1. Kingery
2. Sanchez
3. Crawford
4. Haseley
5. Moniak
6. Medina
7. Ortiz
8. Randolph
9. Kilome
10. Romero
11. Hall
12. Tocci
13. Gamboa
14. Tromp
15. Anderson
16. Morales
17. Grullon
18. Quinn
19. Dominguez
20. Pelletier
21. Muzziotti
22. Therrien
23. Young
24. Guthrie
25. Stobbe
26. I guess Gowdy, tempted not to rank him until healthy

Austinfan 2017-09-01 14:16:19 UTC #8

I don't buy "scout" hype once they start playing games.

The difference between Stobbe and Moniak is Stobbe is more physically mature, while you can project Moniak becoming a much better hitter, like Kingery, once he has a couple years to fill out and add strength and stamina. Stobbe really struggled with contact, as we've seen with numerous "talented" prospects, Hernandez, Walding, etc., power without contact is pretty useless.

Guzman may be a good fielder, but so are Mora, Canelo and Cumana, you have to hit. With smaller LA infielders, I'm wary of projecting, some get stronger, some don't.
I take the "Missouri" approach to those kids.

I'd also point out that RPs tend to be underrated, but a lot of ML RPs put up 1-2 WAR seasons, other than above average starters, how many position players will do so (because even if they're an average 2 WAR starter, they won't be starting more than a few seasons before they're replaced). So while all but elite RPs shouldn't be in the top 20 or so, good RP prospects are more valuable than mediocre position player prospects b/c they have a higher probability of providing value down the road.

Austinfan 2017-09-01 14:29:26 UTC #9

I'll probably shift some people around by December.
This is a very fluid list, because it's very deep, but there are few "can't miss" prospects.
Which is probably why the Phillies system is underrated, there aren't a lot of talents that jump out at you.
But a lot that could make quick jumps.

Take Coppola, undersized college player, but hit well until he hit Reading, draws walks, great speed, top defensive OF.
Very similar to Tocci, a year older but better plate discipline.
If Coppola can add a little pop to his bat, he could jump ahead of Tocci, if Tocci learns to draw walks and get his OBP > .350, he could become starter material.
Right now both project as bench players, PR/defensive substitute types - but they don't need a huge jump to become starting OF based on defense and OBP in the #1/#2 lineup slots.

Ranger Suarez shows what an uptick in velocity can do for a pitcher with good command, he went from an afterthought to a potential ML starter if he can adjust to AA ball next year.
Phillies have lots of prospects like that, who can make big jumps with relatively minor adjustments.

And a lot of guys in rookie ball are hard to project, is Fitch for real? Is Guthrie? Given their age, we'll have a much better idea next year.

Cozens is my biggest "fail," I expected him to struggle in Lehigh, but he's just plain bad. And it's not like they haven't been working with him for 3 years or so.
The best you can hope for at this point is a platoon hitter who learns to walk enough to compensate for his lack of contact.

bigegypt0417 2017-09-01 14:53:16 UTC #10

I don't think we have a prospect in our system who profiles as highly as Oritz. The upside for him is very high IMO. His year at WPT has been very good for an 18 year old and he will play next year as a 19 year old and probably in Lakewood.

Florida_Sunshine 2017-09-01 15:11:12 UTC #11

Great work guys. Thanks for taking the time to put that together.

Philsmania 2017-09-01 15:23:01 UTC #12

I second that! I only follow the minors on a macro level so I appreciate those who can really look at them on the micro level.

zambonir 2017-09-01 15:49:54 UTC #13

Well, I hope you're right, but he's gonna have to show it. Certainly Hamels did. It'd be great if he was either a reliable 4th OF, someone you could trade, or someone that allows you to trade another OF. Wasn't that long ago Quinn was the CF of the future, with Herrera either traded or moved to left. But with a tight 40 and depth both above and below him I still think he might be a guy you trade in a package or for 50 cents on the dollar (since you'd lose him in the Rule V for sure).

If not, the question becomes if they want him to get 300 ABs in a half-season at AAA (which, again, includes seeing if he can actually do it) or do they just bring him up (especially given the tight roster). They do not sound satisfied with the # of ABs he got this season.

andyb 2017-09-01 16:20:13 UTC #14

If Quinn can play some winter ball I actually don't think he needs more time in AAA next year. I think he gets a chance to compete for the 4th OF job. Most likely they will sign a Nava or two for Spring Training as well in addition to internal options like Perkins, but I have no problem letting Quinn win a job if he can. I think he has enough minor league time that he will be fine in the majors. Even if Altherr, Williams, and Herrera are all healthy I think he still can be very productive with 2 starts a week and lots of pinch running and hitting late in games.

Florida_Sunshine 2017-09-01 16:27:11 UTC #15

That scenario might actually help him build up strength, provide value, and limit his injuries while also giving us time to evaluate if he is part of the future here.

zambonir 2017-09-01 17:02:05 UTC #16

I agree Quinn will have a chance to win a job in spring training if he can (and if he's there). It will be interesting to see if he goes to winter ball, he's only done it once, didn't do well at all, not that common for an American kid to go down to the DR is it? Certainly Puerto Rico would be easier.

Of course that's assuming he's even healthy in time for the winter season, which starts in late October.

harrisburghusker 2017-09-01 17:07:21 UTC #17

Thanks for putting this together! I still have hope for Zach Green...I think he could have a breakout year in Reading next year

allentown 2017-09-01 18:17:09 UTC #18

I don't disagree at all. He likely is our best power bat. I don't want to put him higher than I have at this time, both because he is defensively limited and because he is so low on the farm. I really like anyone in my top 10.

Austinfan 2017-09-01 18:22:48 UTC #19

How limited is Ortiz? The reports I've read said he's more athletic than expected and worked hard to get into shape.
So he may be as "limited" as Cozens.
Problem of course with low minors and power hitters is you don't really get a feel for whether they can handle the breaking stuff they'll see as they rise through the ranks.
But Ortiz is said to use the whole field (i.e. not a dead pull hitter) and has the power to take it park anywhere.

phillychuck 2017-09-01 18:49:30 UTC #20

Watching on video, Ortiz is built like a traditional NFL tight end (the blocking type, not the receiving type). The hope is he can stay in the outfield, which, so far, has been somewhat buoyed by his unexpected athleticism. I really think it's a stretch to think he'll be able to stay in the OF in his 30s, but it's likely we won't be the team worrying about that.