MLB (Non-Phillies) Hot Stove, 2024-25

[bkox]

The Blue Jays and OF Anthony Santander are in agreement on a deal, a source confirms. @jonmorosi had it first.

— Alden González ( @Alden_Gonzalez ) January 20, 2025

Anthony Santander’s deal with the Blue Jays is for five years and more than $90 million, sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) January 20, 2025

[zambonir]

Braves sign outfielder Profar to 3-year, $42M deal

[andyb]

That could be a bargain for the Braves. Maybe some doubts about his long term health? He is pretty young though. Just seems inconsistent.

[zambonir]

I dunno, I think it's neither a bargain nor an overpay. He is 31, and was not a good LF defender. It depends if whatever he did last season at the plate is sustainable going forward though he'll still probably get on base decently regardless. The Braves' LF production last year was even worse than the Phillies' I think (from below: "Their left fielders as a group hit .229/.278/.364.") But he'd look a lot better if he was still a middle IF.

Jurickson Profar gives Atlanta an answer to their left field void: Law

[andyb]

The Law analysis is a little more nuanced that that because he alludes to some of the batted ball data that suggests his career year may be a bit sustainable. He also questions why Profar should be so bad defensively since he has much of his infield skills except the arm. The sentence before what you quoted is also important:

There are a lot of ways this could go pear-shaped, but the contract is very team-friendly, and if his production over the next three years is worth even 5 WAR, it’s going to be valuable to a team that’s a perennial contender.

Getting 5 WAR over 3 years from a guy coming off a 3.6 WAR year is really not that much of a stretch, especially if the analytics behind his offense last year are not bad (as in all BABIP luck). Breakeven in value is also more like 4 WAR and there is a good chance they'll get 7-9 WAR out of those 3 years.

[zambonir]

Oh agreed I just don't think he's likely to be a bargain. Nor a bust. Merely a fair value (in the general sense, not pure $-per-WAR). He'll be a bargain if he repeats that success for 2-3 years but even if the approach is sustainable he'll still be aging, and an injury risk along with that (like all free agents). MLBTR predicted him at three years $45 million. He didn't have a QO attached but that didn't seem to inspire anyone to go after him hard.

[andyb]

Pressly to the Cubs in a pure salary dump. He has lost a bit but is still decent. It is kind of odd that Houston is dumping salary when they are really a bigger market than Philly.

Sources: Cubs finalizing trade for reliever Pressly

[zambonir]

They are apparently moving towards bringing back Bregman after all. They have always punched below their weight as a market (a familiar thing to us), though Crane finally spent some money these past few years. I get not wanting two high-paid closer types taking up $33 million AAV between them but you would think he'd have value versus a long-term commitment (to Estevez, for instance).

[Philsmania]

The Astros farm system isn't terribly strong. You wonder if they are going to dial it down and try to rebuild, although good organizations shouldn't have to rebuild.

[zambonir]

If they aren't competitive over the next two years they might rebuild but if they sign Bregman after already trading for Paredes and signing Walker they are certainly not rebuilding. Hader and Altuve and Alveraz are signed through '28 or '29. They just haven't been able to seamlessly replace their stars the way they did with Pena and Tucker and a few pitchers between the two World Series teams. They were never going to be able to keep both Tucker and Bregman. They definitely operate more like the Rays than the Dodgers, last year (and that Hader contract) was an outlier.

[Philsmania]

If they aren't competitive over the next two years they might rebuild but if they sign Bregman after already trading for Paredes and signing Walker they are certainly not rebuilding. Hader and Altuve and Alveraz are signed through '28 or '29. They just haven't been able to seamlessly replace their stars the way they did with Pena and Tucker and a few pitchers between the two World Series teams. They were never going to be able to keep both Tucker and Bregman. They definitely operate more like the Rays than the Dodgers, last year (and that Hader contract) was an outlier.

it is interesting to note how the Astros and Braves both usually let their premier free agents walk. But, as you note, both teams usually have had the knack for reloading at the position vacated by the premier free agent with a player they develop who turns out to be equal or better than the guy he replaced--or they use farm system assets to trade for a star player (like the Braves did getting Olsen and Murphy from the Athletics). They also have their constant "faces of the franchise" whom they keep far away from free agency (Altuve and Alvarez for the Astros, Acuña and Riley for the Braves). For all of their money, the Dodgers have also been fairly adept at reloading when they let a guy walk.

[zambonir]

Houston will receive right-handed pitching prospect Juan Bello in return, plus the Astros are sending $5.5MM along with Pressly to help the Cubs cover some of the righty’s $14MM salary for the 2025 season. In exchange for agreeing to the deal, Pressly will receive a new no-trade clause, plus an assignment bonus to cover the tax difference in relocating from Texas to Illinois.

Astros Trade Ryan Pressly To Cubs

[VoteForKalas]

And why weren't the Phillies the ones making this trade? We can use more pen help and to give one fringe prospect plus get $5M back seems like a pretty good deal.

[andyb]

We already did our Romano trade. I am fine without blowing out the budget on older relievers. Remember we are in the 110% tax bracket so Pressly would cost $20 million even with Houston picking up $5 million. We got Ross too and his stuff could play up potentially in a short relief role though I assume he'll be in long relief at the beginning of the year.

[zambonir]

Funny, I see it differently - the Astros already had enough late-inning relievers (Hader and Abreu being their top two) and so do the Phillies. Kerkering is already a better bet than Pressly at his age/salary. If Alvarado doesn't bounce back and no one else emerges in the Top 4 they will make a deadline deal. Which they're likely to do anyway (have done it every single year under Dombrowski if you count Lorenzen as a partial bullpen play). And not only are Ruiz and Banks right where they should be as the #5 and 6 but Ross has the potential to be that guy who steps into a Top 4 role.

If anything the Phillies have too many relievers, especially given the lack of optionable arms and the continued presence of Walker (though with the acquisition of both Luzardo and Ross I assume there is no way he isn't DFA'ed if everyone makes it through ST healthy). It is a good bullpen on any contending team and an especially good one on a team built around starting pitching.

[Philsmania]

I would have liked to have seen the Phillies get one more arm for the bullpen. Expecting Germano and Ross to replace Estevez and Hoffman is a big gamble. Germano needs to be healthy and Ross has never been consistently good.

[zambonir]

But the Phillies were just fine without Estevez for more than 100 games last season. Romano replacing Hoffman is a bit of a gamble but Hoffman himself has always been a bit of a gamble (not to mention how he looked in October). Ruiz is basically replacing Seranthony (and did that pretty well last year) and Ross is replacing Ruiz (Banks already replaced Soto). In no way does Ross directly replace Estevez or Hoffman, but he was elite last year as a reliever, his career stats otherwise are almost entirely as a starter.

I realize none of these guys are untouchable, but I'd still like to see someone actually suggest the accompanying move to blindly signing another priceyish reliever. Cut Ruiz? Trade Banks? Trade Alvarado? They already have to eat Walker's $ probably and teams almost never do the thing where a March release gets you off the hook for a contract.

[andyb]

Expecting Germano and Ross to replace Estevez and Hoffman is a big gamble.

At least Jordan Romano is much better than Justin Germano.

[zambonir]

I was afraid we signed Domingo German

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I was afraid we signed Domingo German

... or Cesar Geronimo..