Minor League Games - September 1, 2024

[julio]

AAA: Syracuse @ Lehigh Valley (TBD) - 6:35 pm
AA: Reading (RHP Eiberson Castellano) @ Somerset - 1:05 pm
High A: Hudson Valley @ Jersey Shore (TBD) - 1:05 pm
Low A: Clearwater (TBD) @ Ft. Myers - 12:05 pm

Rolling Scores Here - https://www.milb.com/scores/2024-09-01/all/all/phillies

Rolling Boxes Here - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=143&date=09/01/2024

[kmc1019]

Aidan Miller 5 for 5. Triple short of the cycle.

[Austinfan]

Miller promoted to AA after his last month, suprised Anthony wasn't promoted as well.

[andyb]

Anthony really isn't a top prospect. Miller is. His promotions will always take priority over an older overachiever.

[Austinfan]

I pointed out that Anthony was a top college hitter who's college career was ended by a betting scandal.
Otherwise would have gone in first ten rounds, maybe first five.
He's hitting .330 at JS at 23. Played at FCL and Clearwater last year after being signed in June.
I expect they'll tweak his swing (along with Mendez) to generate more power, balance between power and not wanting to screw up his ability to make contact.

[andyb]

None of that makes him a decent prospect. Maybe he'll get up to our top 40 this offseason because the average is good at Jersey Shore but probably not enough to make top 30. He just does not have a lot of power and even with the promotion is not young for the level. As expected the BB/K ratio is also worse after the promotion. Not a bad ratio (20/33) but also nothing special any more.

You fall in love with older prospects without great tools every single year. There is a reason the Phillies treat the better prospects differently with more playing time and faster promotions. Mainly because they have the tools that can help them succeed at higher levels. Anthony hits line drives for a high average in single A ball at age 23. That is just not that special unfortunately. I hope he keeps improving, but at the moment he simply is not a great prospect even if he has put himself on the edge of the radar with a really good performance this year.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I don't have Mendez's EV numbers, but we do have Anthony's and we do have years of Clearwater. This year, Anthony's 90th percentile EV (a proxy for raw power) was 101.7 mph and his max was 105.6 mph. He does not pull the ball in the air (which would cause him to not maximize what power he does have), he doesn't chase much, and he has fine in zone contact rates.

For reference, here are some other prospects and their EV's (90th/Max)

Rincones - 107.4 / 113.3
Reyes - 106.9 / 114.6
Miller - 106.3 / 108.1
Viars (24) - 105.5 / 113.6 (23 was 105 / 111.5)
Lee Sang - 104.9 / 109.8
Tait - 104.6 / 106.5
Crawford - 103.4 / 107.4
Saltiban - 102.1 / 109.8
Lee - 101.6 / 104.8
Rincon - 99.2 / 102.5
Boyd - 98.2 / 104.6
Bergolla - 95.4 / 99.8
Caba - 93.9 / 101

Rob Orr's site even allows for league level percentiles (https://therealestmuto.shinyapps.io/Damage/)
Anthony this year in Low-A was 48th percentile for 90th percentile EV and 35th percentile for max. This isn't a "he needs to hit it in the air more" swing change, he just isn't showing average raw power and is instead a line drive machine. That will get him onto the back of the list, but we now have data to actually talk about power output.

[andyb]

The offensive bar is just pretty high for a right-handed first baseman whether that is fair or not. It took us years to believe in Hoskins offensively for instance. Anthony does have a really good hit tool and enough command on the strike zone to make him worth watching. It just would help if he were left-handed and played a more consequential defensive position. Imagine that he'll get looks in the outfield or 3B if he continues to hit when he gets to AA. He also might be trade bait for one of those minor deals like Oliver Dunn when he gets closer to rule 5 eligibility.

[Austinfan]

Anthony also pitched in college so he has the arm.
Question is foot speed, he was DH/1B in college and 1B in the pros (though Iowa had a good OF).

[phillychuck]

I don't really understand why we now think every good player has to have power. Mark Grace was an excellent first baseman for a lot of years as a high average, high OBP first baseman who never hit 20 HRs in a season. Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, Hal McCrae, Bill Buckner, etc. All these guys lacked power but were contributors to good teams. Most were 3 WAR players, which are great to have on a team, especially from your own system. Crawford, especially, and Anthony should be working on maintaining or raising their averages first, then increasing power. OBP is worth more than SLG.

[RolenRules]

I agree PC but I also agree with Andy that Anthony still seems fringe at this point given age and level. And per Matt's list above Anthony's EV isn't even at Crawford's level.

[Austinfan]

Anthony is 23, missed a year of college due to the betting controversy.
He'll be in Reading at 24, which isn't old for a college plapyer, if he continues to hit, the Show by 25.

He doesn't need HR power, given his rate of contact, he does need alley power.
Bohm having a pretty good season.

[zambonir]

If any of these guys can hit like John Olerud or Keith Hernandez they will have long careers. But the game has also changed.

And power also still correlates with OBP and hitting overall. It all has to be developed or you just won't ever get to MLB, let alone become a 3.0 WAR player.

[andyb]

He doesn't need HR power, given his rate of contact, he does need alley power.

No, he does need HR power, especially as a right-handed first baseman. And BTW he did NOT miss a year of college. He missed the end of his senior year and still played 43 games and had 198 plate appearances. He went undrafted because of the gambling scandal but basically missed about 3 weeks of playing time. He might have been like a 15th round choice that year, but it is a false narrative to keep posting that he is some hidden prospect because he missed a year of development which just is not true.