Minor League Games - August 31st, 2022

Squire 2022-08-31 12:29:31 UTC #1

AAA: Lehigh Valley (LHP Kent Emanuel) at Norfolk - 6:35PM
AA: Reading (LHP Ethan Lindow) at Hartford - 7:05PM
High A: Jersey Shore (TBD) at Hudson Valley - TBD - Continuation of Suspended Game
High A: Jersey Shore (TBD) at Hudson Valley - Game 2
Low A: Clearwater (RHP Alex McFarlane) at Lakeland - 6:30PM
FCL: Season Over
DSL: DSL Phillies White (TBD) at DSL Rockies - 10:30AM

Rolling Scores Here - https://www.milb.com/scores/philadelphia-phillies/2022-08-31

Rolling Boxes Here - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=143&date=08/31/2022

andyb 2022-08-31 15:47:46 UTC #2

DSL White tied 1-1 after 3. Staff ace Maxwel Hernandez going for the Phillies this morning. Hernandez had a 0.72 ERA this year. Not a top prospect as he is reportedly 90-92 with a plus change and assortment of other pitches.

andyb 2022-08-31 15:53:21 UTC #3

I posted the first of these elsewhere, but here are all 3 of Steve Potter's FCL summaries. Some really good insights on lots of players. Our Gavin Tonkel mystery is also solved. Apparently he ran into a pole chasing a fly ball at the Yankees complex and was done for the year. Might return in instructional league.

fish 2022-08-31 16:55:32 UTC #4

I wonder if there is an issue with the gun he checks because it seems really low- with few exceptions, that's a pretty un-exciting group of arms...and I sure hope there was something physically wrong with Yemal Flores to explain why a million dollar bonus guy hit's .160 in the FCL.

andyb 2022-08-31 17:01:37 UTC #5

If he is looking at a radar gun held by a scout (as opposed to the systems in MLB ballparks) they might be measuring the speed of the pitch midway between the mound and home as opposed to right out of the pitcher's hand which is a couple mph faster. Pitchers are throwing harder these days than in the past, but we have also chosen the radar technology for our ballparks that displays the highest possible speed.

Plus remember we have not really signed any high priced arms since Starlyn Castillo (who seems like he'll might not throw as hard after TJ surgery than he did as a 15-year-old). Most of these pitchers are age 19-21 so might have some projection in front of them, though few throw in the mid-90s already or they would have required higher bonuses. Lack of investment equals lack of much present velocity.

Matt_Winkelman 2022-08-31 19:53:07 UTC #6

Those numbers are all correct within rounding (so +/- 1). There isn't a ton of exciting arms in the complex, but as pointed out there isn't a large input and they pushed some guys like Jean Cabrera (not that he lights up radar guns) and Eiberson Castellano straight to Clearwater. It is mostly due to a lack of investment, but also some variances of the draft. They took only one HS arm and he didn't pitch this year.

I will say that Estanista is legitimate. He is still really raw, but the fastball has all of the good characteristics and there is feel for spin. I would not be surprised if the 94-96 T97 is more in the 95-98 range in a year or two.

Flores has pitch recognition issues. They are getting better, but still isn't great. He can play center field now, which wasn't true when he signed. I think he definitely falls under disappointment and you can get concerned like the other RH hitting OFers they have signed.

Austinfan 2022-08-31 23:34:14 UTC #7

Phillies have a long history of low bonus signings who start out in the 88-90 range, and a few make big jumps after 2-3 years of "home cooking." A lot of LA pitchers are just plain skinny, probably due malnutrition (I suspect especially Venezuelan pitchers these days), you see some of them pack on 40+ lbs after a few years.

I think around age 22 or so the odds of a big velo jump diminish, improvements after that are more likely due to tweaking mechanics (a number of ML pitchers have added 1-2 MPH that way) than filling out their frames.

The other issue is short-term and sustained velo, a lot of these guys put up good numbers in short stints, but projecting them as starters requires getting some readings around pitches 60-80, because to pitch that deep into games, they have to learn to pace themselves so you get a "truer" read on velo.

I'd say these days a SP needs sustained velo around 92 or so, a little less if they have great movement and command, more if they have a "straight" FB. But as Suarez and Nola show, the margin for error is smaller at 92-93 than 95-97, but I've seen more and more hitters square up 100 MPH FBs - self-selection for quicker bats as average velo rises. Velo won't help a straight FB thrown in the sweet spot (middle of the plate between the knees and waist).

andyb 2022-09-01 03:46:09 UTC #8

They really don't. All teams have 16-year-olds that surprise in velocity. The Phillies don't have more than everyone else. And counting on that is not something one can do. Our FCL team does not have a lot of hard throwers because we have not invested a lot of money. We should not expect great success.

andyb 2022-09-01 03:48:32 UTC #9

Baron Radcliff I think has 6 HR in the last 5 games. OPS over .800 at Jersey Shore. Carlos De La Cruz pretty hot also.

nycphils 2022-09-01 13:34:45 UTC #10

de la Cruz has had a nice year. More of a prospect than Ortiz, for example, based on performance.

andyb 2022-09-01 13:41:49 UTC #11

Hard to say whether de la Cruz is as good as Ortiz based on this small sample. He still has a ways to go with his K/BB rates for instance. Ortiz might be a bit better defensively too because of his arm.

But he is such a physical outlier (in terms of both ability and the challenge to have a compact swing at that height), that it was always going to take time. He has actually built up his prospect status to the point where he is at least in the conversation for rule 5 protection. Can't imagine they would go that far, but one at least has to think about it.

Austinfan 2022-09-01 15:22:18 UTC #12

I think de la Cruz has to be ahead of Ortiz at this point, he's got power, more athletic, but also the development curve is more promising - Ortiz basically peaked out physically at 16, and he's never made the adjustments that suggest he'll ever hit ML pitching. de la Cruz took a while to fill out and develop better body control, but has shown substantial growth. So you have to figure he has more upside.