Minor League Games - August 31, 2024

[julio]

AAA: Syracuse @ Lehigh Valley (LHP Kolby Allard) - 6:35 pm
AA: Reading (RHP Moises Chace) @ Somerset - 6:35 pm
High A: Hudson Valley @ Jersey Shore (TBD) - 7:05 pm
Low A: Clearwater @ Ft. Myers - 3:35 pm - completion of 8/30 game
Low A: Clearwater (TBD) @ Ft. Myers - 6:05 pm

Rolling Scores Here - https://www.milb.com/scores/2024-08-31/all/all/phillies

Rolling Boxes Here - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=143&date=08/31/2024

[kmc1019]

Kudos to the scouts who recommended Seth Johnson and Moises Chace from the Orioles at trade deadline. Both have been strong....until tonight when Chace has gone to another level: 6 shutout innings, 1 H, 0 BB 13 (!) Ks for Reading

[phillychuck]

Crawford 2/5 wit a HR back up to .310 at AA. Pretty decent picking everywhere yesterday.

[flyers19rw]

Noted in today’s Inky that DD is not adverse to jumping players from AA ball to the show. Crawford could be starting in the OF next April.

[zambonir]

He may skip AAA but he's certainly not going to jump straight to MLB after just two months of AA. Granted, that's all Rojas had, but that was an emergency and they didn't expect him to hit (obviously, since he also hadn't even hit in Reading by Reading standards).

[flyers19rw]

If he hits in ST like he has at multiple levels this year, he could make the jump. It doesn't look like AAA ball has much to challenge him. The glove and understanding of the game is there. They might start him in a corner OF position at the beginning of the season and then slip in to CF as times go by. The kid is a player and comes from a professional family background.

[zambonir]

I don't think the power's there. They want more from him even if he stays in CF. Corner would be a stretch, even if our current LHB LF isn't a big bopper either. He'd need to be putting up a .950 OPS at Reading (specifically, and AA in general) to look ready for that jump, not .800.

Pointless to even think it might happen until we see how the off-season goes, but to me the most likely scenario is still this same group of OFs, and the second most-likely scenario is replacing any one of the current four (Marsh, Hays, Rojas, Nick) with a veteran. Replacing one of the current four with Crawford would be a distant third, though that doesn't mean he couldn't hit his way up by July. Assuming he's not involved in a trade himself.

[flyers19rw]

It's hard to predict what the roster will look like in April of 2025. However one thing is sure, some salary shedding would be helpful. Father Time is going to catch up with some of the high priced Phillies and it's better to trade them out earlier than later. Having Crawford waiting in the wings is a real treasure under these circumstances. The same is true with Marchan if he could keep heathy.
DD has always been a sensible evaluator of a roster. The backbone of this club is its pitching. The hitting and fielding needs an upgrade. He'll probably address that in the off season. Nothing that he will do in those two areas should surprise us.

[zambonir]

Agree on all counts, but also easier said than done. He did not change a thing this year, really. Unlikely to do that again but it depends on how things go. Overall, they get one more kick at the can before JT and Schwarber are up and Ranger needs to be re-signed or replaced. Moving on from Nick or making an aggressive move at one of the other OF spots certainly possible. Walker's $ still on the book and either Hoffman or Estevez likely to be pricey. But Crawford is not yet a sure thing, and I reckon Marchan's ceiling is still back-up (especially given the lack of durablity. I'd settle for 50-50 with JT back on a shorter cheaper deal).

[flyers19rw]

The game has changed in the last two years. The three outcomes hitting and such are proving to be less effective than in the previous decade. Look at the present Phillies. Way too many one run dingers. The lack of clutch hits because of guys swinging from their heels. The LaRussa style of get them on, move them over and knock them in is re-emerging as an effective way to win. Combine that with good pitching and solid defense and one has a winning combination. Multiple teams are doing that now days and are quite successful.

[julio]

The game has changed in the last two years. The three outcomes hitting and such are proving to be less effective than in the previous decade. Look at the present Phillies. Way too many one run dingers. The lack of clutch hits because of guys swinging from their heels. The LaRussa style of get them on, move them over and knock them in is re-emerging as an effective way to win. Combine that with good pitching and solid defense and one has a winning combination. Multiple teams are doing that now days and are quite successful.

Umm... The Phillies' approach has to be characterized as "quite successful," it seems to me. I mean, they are in first place in the division, and all of two games off the best record in MLB (the Dodgers).

[zambonir]

Haha yes. The idea that this team doesn't get clutch hits or hit well with RISP is also largely a small-sample perception. Get them on and knock them in still works just as well without the moving over part.

But either way, Crawford has to hit more. He doesn't need to be a slugger, but the game has not changed so much that he can be Juan Pierre (84 OPS+), and maybe not even his father (a 105 career OPS+). That's not about power vs. small ball, that's just about not being a very productive hitter.

But I think the main point is, there is nothing about his current minor league performance after just 30 games in AA, in Reading, that says he can be that in the big leagues yet. You put him in the majors early next year and you're probably looking at a .650 OPS player, which is what we hoped Rojas would be but I think we want more from Crawford. He might not even be able to put up his current OPS in AAA. There is truly no rush. Even if he doesn't get to the bigs until 2026 he'll be the same age Rojas was, with a lot more polish and experience.

[flyers19rw]

How successful have they been since the AS game? Their hitting has dropped off.

[zambonir]

About as successful as they were in two different months of 2023 and two different months of 2022 (including September of that one). All seasons have ups and downs. And they just a winning record in August.

And as hard as the offense has been to watch, it was still the run prevention not the run production that really made the slump so bad (except for the fact that the offense wasn't winning 6-5 games or following a blown save with a comeback win. Sure, a more patient, all-fields approach means not trying to hit home runs at ever at bat - but it doesn't mean home runs (and doubles) aren't still the best way to score runs and win games. The pitching is still too good.

[flyers19rw]

Believe what you want to believe. However since blowing that series with the A’s they’ve been in a decline in scoring per game production. They’re winning because of the pitching. The A’s and Twins showed that the team has a hard time handling breaking balls and their K rate shows that they are more than willing to get themselves out. It’s why they’re in jeopardy of losing home field advantage for the POs.

[zambonir]

Pre All-Star break: Scored 4..96 runs
Post All-Star break: Scored 4.48 runs

That is a not insignificant decline.

But...

Pitching pre All-Star: 3.86 ERA
Pitching post All-Star: 4.36 ERA

Basically a wash. But if Suarez and Sanchez recover, they're good to go. And the same goes for these hitters, who have always been good enough, and are capable of adjusting. They could have easily lost to St. Louis in 2022. Casty and Harper carried them against the Braves in the NLDS and then didn't in the NLCS. Stuff happens.

I know you're not against walks or discipling by any means but it kind of remains me of the '08 offense when Ruben decided that he needed more batting average and "clutch" hitters and ultimately replaced Burrell and Werth with Ibanez and Pence while also adding Polanco. The offense was never as good. If anything, this team already has two of the latter guys (in Casty and Bohm) and could use another Schwarber.

[owaistabish]

Aidan Miller promoted to AA.

[phillychuck]

5/5 will do that I guess. At least it did this time. I feel like they have been very aggressive with Miller.

Miller's OPS at JS was just below 800, which is quite good for that park in that league. OPS+ approaching 130. Still, I never got the impression he was forcing a promotion. Maybe they just want to get him back to playing SS since Rincon was taking his defensive chances away.

[andyb]

They probably want Miller to play a couple more weeks since the AA season goes later also. Wondering a little bit about Arizona Fall eligibility (though teams get around that all the time). Except for waivers players are supposed to at least be at the AA level.

[gmwannabe]

I'll have to get out to see him. I've seen many of young kids first games through the years. Brad Brink, Reggie Taylor, Jeff Jackson, Tyler Green, Aaron (not Hank), Abel, Painter, Dominic Brown (who I saw Homer over the Pool and Roof). I remember seeing the Bull (but not his first game). So many, I'm forgetting. looking forward to seeing him play.
gm