Minor League Games - August 21st, 2022

[Squire]

AAA: Lehigh Valley (TBD) at Buffalo - 1:05PM
AA: Portland at Reading (RHP Andrew Painter) - 5:15PM
High A: Wilmington at Jersey Shore (RHP Dominic Pipkin) - 1:05PM
Low A: Clearwater (LHP Matt Osterberg) at Daytona - 5:35PM
FCL: Off
DSL: Off

Rolling Scores Here - https://www.milb.com/scores/philadelphia-phillies/2022-08-21

Rolling Boxes Here - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=143&date=08/21/2022

[andyb]

Reading was the milb game on MLB.tv today. Painter looked great. Ortiz with a grand slam too.

[BaseballCat]

I should have stayed home and watched Reading as my local team lost. Nice job Mick and Andrew!!

[andyb]

I guess I watched about half of Painter's start. Just rewinding after the Phillies game was sadly over. I do think he needs more work if he is going to succeed in the majors. He still relies heavily on only 2 pitches. He really needs to vary his speed on his breaking pitches. I think he was throwing both a slider and a curve at times and they seemed to blend together. Looking at other Philly pitchers a cutter instead of a slider might be the thing to differentiate between the breaking pitches so they all don't look slurvy.

He only threw a couple of changeups that I saw too. He'll see many more good left-handed bats in the majors. All in all though it is hard to fault him when he mostly dominates much older hitters with his stuff and decent command of that stuff. He really looks physical out there. Seems to have the makings of a durable starter if they manage him correctly.

[fish]

I think he was throwing both a slider and a curve at times and they seemed to blend together. Looking at other Philly pitchers a cutter instead of a slider might be the thing to differentiate between the breaking pitches so they all don't look slurvy.

He was throwing both, though the curve far less frequently. His slider has so much break I think you are right to call it a slurve. He gets great lateral movement on it but it seems like it wouldn't be difficult for a good hitter to pick that up- then again they have to also be ready for a 97 mph fastball, so it's no easy task. His curve is just ok and I think both he and Abel have pretty good changeups, they just don't show up in games early or often. I think his slider just needs a little more work in the pitching lab to tighten/shorten it up.to make it a real killer.

[andyb]

They clearly were throwing breaking balls repeatedly the second time though the order as if that was the plan and some more experienced hitters were starting to time it.

He really should throw lots of changeups to left-handed hitters the rest of this year and early next year if he can. Agree that I think it is a good one in terms of movement. Just hard to tell about the deception and whether the arm speed is fooling good hitters. One does get the feeling even in AA that he can just throw high heat and get most hitters out no matter what the other pitches do.

As I said though, I was impressed in my first extended look at him. It is very possible he will be ready to come up at midseason next year if his other pitches progress and define themselves. Or maybe he could play a David Price-like 3-inning postseason role as a weapon out of the bullpen while still conserving his innings. Can't imagine he'll go beyond the 130-140 range next year.

[LegoDoom]

Does he really need to develop a 3rd good pitch before being called up? Hamels didn't develop a 3rd pitch until he was in the majors (although he was better once he did).

[andyb]

Cole had over 200 innings of minor league experience. He had 2 very good pitches when he was called up, but it is not like the others were awful.

Need is a tricky term here. Painter might do very well if called up now. But he also still has lots to learn and the league could adapt quickly. Plus the innings limits.

There is just no reason to do so now but planning 2023 with a callup in mind for all 3 of these prospects is probably the right thing to do.

[LegoDoom]

I could very well be misremembering, but Hamels' cutter and curve were not good initially and I thought he had some growing pains when incorporating them. I thought his curve was used less than a handful of times a game.

Agree about the innings and I'm not sure what the correct timeline is. I am much more willing to hold McGarry and Abel back. Painter just isn't being touched by anyone.

I didn't see the start yesterday, but have noticed that Painter's off-speed pitch form is very much different. One thing I haven't noticed, but I did from his draft video, is that he varies his delivery speed (like a quick pitch). I think he could get by with those types of things while he continues to develop other pitches.

[allentown]

Hamels' first year up, he had 50 IP across 3 minor league levels and then was decent in 130+ MLB IP, with too many walks being the problem. He had over 9K/9 that first season, an ERA of 4, and very good H/9. Not a lot of problem other than the walks, which he cut by a third the next season. that first season he was already pitching almost 6 innings/start and pitching 180 IP between minors and majors -- so ready to go out of the gate. Certainly couldn't have had much second time around the league or through the lineup problems. He missed bats from the start.

[bkeich]

The game has changed so much since Hamels came up. There are currently 0 teams who average 6IP/start, with Houston as the high at 5.9 (and really no one that close to them). The league average is 5.2.

I don't think we will ever see a rookie averaging 6-7 IP/ start again.

[LegoDoom]

The game has changed so much since Hamels came up. There are currently 0 teams who average 6IP/start, with Houston as the high at 5.9 (and really no one that close to them). The league average is 5.2.

I don't think we will ever see a rookie averaging 6-7 IP/ start again.

I feel like you are using stats incorrectly. I am very much not assuming Painter is average (nor was Hamels).

[fish]

Hamels had the ability to both fade his change away from righties and make it break down and in if he wanted. he actually showed up a few times with the best ranked curve in the minors, but I suspect it was the opposition mistaking his changeup that moved to his glove side. By having more than one changeup he effectively had more than 2 pitches. i don't say that to advance the conversation, just in appreciation of how good he was with that pitch.

[bkeich]

It is funny, I always thought Hamels tipped his change with his lower arm angle, but apparently the throwing motion deceived that. No one ever caught on to him so I was clearly wrong.

I remember one interview in which McCarver admitted that Carlton tipped his slider in how he setup his pitch / hand in the glove. Everyone knew it. No one could do anything about it.

[LegoDoom]

Hamels had the ability to both fade his change away from righties and make it break down and in if he wanted. he actually showed up a few times with the best ranked curve in the minors, but I suspect it was the opposition mistaking his changeup that moved to his glove side. By having more than one changeup he effectively had more than 2 pitches. i don't say that to advance the conversation, just in appreciation of how good he was with that pitch.

I don't remember this and it's great if true, but his curve was not good in the majors for the first few years (from memory). If anyone has pitch percentage I would be very interested in the results.

His change was amazing and I will not argue otherwise.

I have to imagine Painter's fastball is much better and his slider is good enough.

[LegoDoom]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cole-hamels/4972/pitch-type-splits?position=P&data=pi&pitchtype=all

It seems like his cutter advanced much more than his curve after he was in the majors.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Painter's fastball has elite movement characteristics (as does Abel and McGarry's). To some of the earlier conversations, they are not going to tighten up Painter's slider, it actually rates out really well in stuff models and it actually tunnels off of the fastball. He should probably clear up the blends between the slider and curveball, but the two pitches have similar horizontal movement and blend some velocity wise, but with an 8 inch difference in vertical break.

[Patchmk88]

Thanks for your input Matt. With his current trajectory, do you see Painter up with the big league club at some point next year? What are the things he has to work on to get to that point?

[Matt_Winkelman]

I think there is certainly a chance depending on how spots open up. I assume they will want to add 1 SP in free agency to Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez just to have depth, and then have the other spot be a competition between Falter, McGarry, Abel, Painter, and who ever else is still around. From there it depends on injuries and effectiveness. They are certainly getting McGarry, Abel, and Painter into a place where they can step in if there is space and need.

I don't know if there is a list of things that Painter needs to work on, as much as for him and the other two, a lot of what they need is facing better hitters. How are do they react and use their pitches when guys are chasing less or able to match up to the velocity a bit more. I think Abel and McGarry have a bit more to work on with nibbling less and getting outs in the zone, while I think Painter could use some starts where another team kind of punches him in the mouth and forces him to really battle with the full arsenal.