Minor League Games - August 21, 2021

[Squire]

DSL: DSL Phillies Red (TBD) v. DSL Phillies White (TBD) - Continuation of Suspended Game
Rookie Complex: FCL Phillies (TBD) v. FCL Yankees - 10:00AM
Low A: Clearwater (RHP Hsin Chieh Lin) v. Bradenton - 6:05PM
High A: Asheville at Jersey Shore (TBD) - 7:05PM
AA: Bowie at Reading (RHP Francisco Morales) - 4:15PM
AA: Bowie at Reading (RHP Hans Crouse) - Game 2
AAA: Lehigh Valley (TBD) at Rochester - 12:05PM
AAA: Lehigh Valley (TBD) at Rochester - 6:05PM

Rolling Scores Here - https://www.milb.com/scores/philadelphia-phillies/2021-08-21

Rolling Boxes Here - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=143

[Squire]

Random Comments:
1. Bryson Stott starting to heat up a bit again in AA
2. Jhailyn Ortiz not
3. Cornelius Randolph back in AAA last night and homered - his AAA numbers are great but small
4. Seems like its been a while since a Daniel Brito update
5. The full season teams are limping to the stretch but still affected by the COVID quarantines in Florida
6. Its hard for me to evaluate guys like Baylor and Marcus Lee Sang since they are 20 and in Rookie ball. At least Jadiel Sanchez had success in Low A.
7. I could really use Johan Rojas staying hot here for the last 2 weeks

[nycphils]

Squire, we’ve been on this board for 20 years - ever recall the system in worse shape? I’m not sure I do.

[Squire]

It's pretty bad. Definitely up there among the worst times in the last 20, agreed. I'm hoping this is just a sophomore slump for Bohm but he has me very concerned. You just can't come away with the 10th overall pick, #1 overall pick and 8th overall pick in successive years and come away with Randolph-Moniak-Haseley misses. Maybe Randolph has figured it out but its still a small sample size this year.

[nycphils]

I think Bohm is having a Pat Burrell 2003 season, when Burrell came off a 146 OPS+ season with just a disaster 90 OPS season - with a winter to work on the hitting, I believe he’ll be fine, just like Pat was, when he rebounded to 107+ OPS and then 120-130 OPS seasons for 4 years thereafter. Too much talent (defense a different issue).

[California_Dreamin]

Oh its been worse, but probably not this century [the last 20 years.] I cut my teeth on this site during the bad major league days of the 90's so in terms of years I have followed the minors with interest longer here than I have the majors and there was one year in particular that this system was horrendous. Little 5'8" Jim Vatcher was the minor league player of the year in the organization and we were celebrating a pitcher named Brad Moore.

The fact that likely few vets of this site even remember him should tell you all you need to know about him. That was the worst year I can recall but this year is pretty bad. I rarely even look at the box scores anymore, they are so horrendous and a pitcher that throws over 3 innings is celebrated as if he is a Cy Young Award finalist.

[andyb]

Jamari Baylor goes deep again. We also have a Logan Cerny debut. He is too old for FCL, though 2 BBs and 2 SBs in 3 plate appearances is a nice start. Gavin Tonkel also debuts (0-3) though at 18 he is age appropriate.

I am guessing we will not really get the roster shuffles correct with all the COVID rehab going on, but there do appear to be some bright spots at the lowest stateside rung in the system and we have not (and may not) see Andrew Painter this year. Abel's injury is of course worrying. Just wish we had more info on that.

[zambonir]

I think Bohm is having a Pat Burrell 2003 season, when Burrell came off a 146 OPS+ season with just a disaster 90 OPS season - with a winter to work on the hitting, I believe he’ll be fine, just like Pat was, when he rebounded to 107+ OPS and then 120-130 OPS seasons for 4 years thereafter. Too much talent (defense a different issue).

But that happened to Burrell in his fourth pro season. He was already an established major leaguer. Bohm has yet to play a single full pro season (or only just has).

That's both the good news and the bad news, IMO. It's bad news because Bohm's 2020 is only barely more meaningful than Odubel's hot streak this year, and an even smaller sample than Franco's first season. It's good news because he is still not a finished product. But given what we've also experienced with Kingery and Haseley - also players who barely put in any time at AAA - as well as Brown and Franco, we're conditioned to assume the worst. The more positive example is Hoskins, though it's fair to wonder if Bohm will ever be quite that good - which he needs to be if he's leaving 3B.

[Patchmk88]

I think some of Bohm’s problems are mental. He gets in his head way too much (both in the field and at the plate). Hopefully that’s something he can get over as he gets older.

Obviously he has to improve his defense no matter where he ends up playing. At the plate there are two things I think he needs to concentrate on. First, I think he’s got to become a disciplined player. If he’s not gonna hit for power he has to be able to put the ball in play and draw works. Speaking of power, that leads me to my second big improvement area at the plate. I love how Bohm hits the ball up the middle and to the opposite side of the field and in no way want him to become pull happy. With that said, there are counts where I think he needs to sell out and try to pull the ball. It could really increase his power numbers.

I’m not a huge fan of Bohm’s for non baseball reasons, but if he can get it together mentally, I think he can be a good players.

[bkox]

Bryson Stott making his first appearance of the year at 3rd base in today's R-Phils game 1 lineup

[Matt_Winkelman]

I was stopping by to see if there was any news I missed and I saw the comments on this being the worse the farm system has been in a long time, and my counter to that is this is the list I wrote in 2012-2013 when I started writing about prospects, and just take in how thin this is.
1. Jesse Biddle
2. Adam Morgan
3. Roman Quinn
4. Tommy Joseph
5. Ethan Martin
6. Maikel Franco
7. Cody Asche
8. Carlos Tocci
9. Jonathan Pettibone
10. Shane Watson
11. Larry Greene Jr.
12. Mitch Gueller
...

2013 Top 30

It gets rough really quick with some hits later, but pulling up this year's midseason Phillies list, the 25-40 range is full of low A pitchers who have like actual real stuff. I think the very top of the system is definitely not there, but there is insanely more depth here than the Amaro era 2012-2015 farm systems that just had nothing of interest past like 20 in the system.

[phillychuck]

Andy, others: serious question...my ideas for what is age-appropriate for any level are all screwed up by the new alignment. I think it also changes post-draft when the new blood is mixed into the system. What do you think are appropriate prospect ages at FCL, CLW, and Jersey Shore now? I don't think it has changed much in AA/AAA. If I had to guess, in April a prospect in CLW should be 20 or less, and a prospect in Jersey should be 21 or less, maybe a year higher for college draftees starting their second season. After the draft, maybe a half-year younger is appropriate?? And I'm at a loss for FCL.

[bkox]

Kinda shocking that the top 9 made the MLB. Only 4 ended up with positive career WAR. The other shock is that Carlos Tocci is still only 25 years old (26 in 2 days). Also was shocked to see that Pettibone ended with a positive careet bWAR.

[andyb]

I am not sure it changes that much with the new alignment. Just put FCL as a combined GCL/NY Penn level. Just about any HS or Latin American mid-level prospect will repeat FCL anyway. Only a matter of time before they make it a full season league.

FCL - age 18-20. Never really appropriate for college picks other than introducing them to pro ball.
Low A - HS/LA age 19-21. College draftees age 21-22
High A- HS/LA age 20-22. College age 22-23
AA - HS/LA age 21-23. College age 23-24
AAA - HS/LA age 22-24. College age 23-25.

Definitely a wider range now with the pandemic jumbling things up. I also think the upper age ranges might tighten down a year for some levels when we are beyond the pandemic and development gets back to normal.

Painter should be FCL this year and Low A next year. Any other HS pick or Latin American pick is probably fine repeating FCL. Wilson if he is treated like a high, fast moving college pick basically starts at Low A but should be in High A Jersey Shore next year with a shot at AA by the end of the season.

Things will seem more normal next year. This is the first season of the 180-player limit and the Phillies are probably feeling their way through the proper distribution of prospects at each level. I think the end project might be a year younger than I laid out because the 180 limit will force us into earlier cuts of C and B level prospects that might have hung around the older system. They will now get cut after a year and a half and then bounce to an independent league. The Tyler Gilbert path might be tougher now. He could easily have been a cut a few years ago in this newer, harsher system.

[Squire]

I'm over Francisco Morales. I really don't care about a guy's stuff when his season long ERA is 7

[allentown]

FCL - age 18-20. Never really appropriate for college picks other than introducing them to pro ball.
Low A - HS/LA age 19-21. College draftees age 21-22
High A- HS/LA age 20-22. College age 22-23
AA - HS/LA age 21-23. College age 23-24
AAA - HS/LA age 22-24. College age 23-25.

This seems like a progression rate for average starting pitchers and position players plus bench guys and middle RP on the higher end of these ages. A progression that has guys reach the majors at ages 23-26 is not how other team's top guys are progressing. We have guys who have progressed faster than this, also, but apart from Nola they have largely floundered (see Kingery, Bohm).

[andyb]

Players better than average major league starters have always had their own clock and always will (and unfortunately we have none of them at this point because that would mean Abel earning a trip to Jersey Shore this year). That chart is more whether we should consider a project for any level too old. As I said the high end contracts a bit. You definitely want a college kid to be 23 and not 24 at AA. But especially with the pandemic, a 24-year-old in AA is not lost if they missed their age 23 year.

[flyers19rw]

I wonder if going into the last off season, that someone whispered into Bohm’s ear that he needed to boost his power. That, and getting teased with low and outside braking balls, caused him to get away from the approach that he had last year. Then he started to mess up in the field. Now we have prospect that is thoroughly confused. There were some questions about his play at 3B when he was drafted but no one felt that way about his ability to hit. He needs to get away from the game and refocus under the tutelage of the right gurus.

[fish]

It's pretty bad. Definitely up there among the worst times in the last 20,

without Abel, Painter, or Yhoswar playing it is really boring to watch any of the games and even read the box scores some days. At this point it has to be more of a development issue than scouting, right? 0 games under .500 is the best you'll find any of the Phil's full season clubs. Winning isn't everything in player development, but the lack of it sure seems to reflect on the guys who they get to the big leagues.

[fish]

Observations on McGarry- in his first inning he was 94-97 mph, mostly 96 and over, but no command. His mid-80s breaking ball is really tough for A ball hitters, they call it a slider but it breaks a lot and looks slurvy whcih to me must be a bit easier for an advanced hitter to recognize- especially from someone that isn't throwing 3/4 or lower. He get's credit for high spin rates, so maybe it can work for him.

His second inning he was throwing more 94-95 and locating it much better. After he got ahead then he'd hump up and elevate which was a pretty good approach for him. Good life on his fastball.

Lin was throwing mostly 87 mph with a breaking ball sub 75 mph. I have no idea why he's starting games.

Whetherbee was 91-92 with a ton of lefty tail and looked to be competing on the mound - a lot like Mike Zagurski. Nothing special, but i'd bet he sees some time in the majors before his career is done.