Minor League Games - August 11, 2024

[Squire]

AAA: Scranton at Lehigh Valley (TBD) - 1:35PM
AA: Reading (RHP Eiberson Castellano) at Akron - 1:05PM
High A: Jersey Shore (RHP Braydon Tucker) at Wilmington - 1:05PM
Low A: Clearwater (TBD) at Lakeland - 12 Noon
Rookie: Season Concluded
DSL: Off
DSL: Off

Rolling Scores Here - https://www.milb.com/scores/2024-08-11/all/all/phillies

Rolling Boxes Here - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=143&date=08/11/2024

[phillychuck]

highlights from Abel's last start:

https://x.com/Andrew_FBB/status/1822081424712757332

you can see why they like him!

[andyb]

That is certainly better than most of the rest of the season from Abel. I had been starting to wonder if they might leave him exposed in the rule 5 draft as pitchers with 6+ ERAs in the minors are generally not likely to stick on a major league roster for an entire season. He almost certainly would be selected. Every pitching slot on a roster is so important though that he'd have a tough time lasting as the last man in the bullpen somewhere.

[zambonir]

I'm sure they still see him as someone who could pitch in MLB for them next season though, even if it's just as the #7, so that makes it easier to use the spot. Really having anyone in the AAA rotation on the 40 shouldn't be that hard (until you finally get bounced like Castillo and Nelson).

[fish]

The two seamer has been a nice development for him.

[rkeden]

Castellano with another great start at Reading. is last few outings are solid!

[andyb]

I'm sure they still see him as someone who could pitch in MLB for them next season though, even if it's just as the #7, so that makes it easier to use the spot. Really having anyone in the AAA rotation on the 40 shouldn't be that hard (until you finally get bounced like Castillo and Nelson).

It is a little more complicated a decision than you suggest. The issue is not whether Abel could be the 7th or 8th starting option next season. It is more whether he could be the 5th starter or 8th man in the bullpen for somebody else. He is clearly not ready for that IMO. Which leads to the question of whether he is good enough that somebody might risk that.

It is probably around 50-50 now. 90% than he would get drafted and 50% that he could stick. Is risking that worth an extra year of control? With signs of life now I lean to yes. A month ago I was less sure as his chances of sticking with somebody might have been 20%-30% at most.

[zambonir]

I just don't think they would take that risk with a guy who was drafted that high and is still ranked pretty high, even with his stock down. You absolutely don't want to see him get picked and returned and the calculus would have to be that no team would take that 20-30% risk and pick him in the first place.

Somehow they carried Nick Nelson and Max Castillo this year without ever using them in MLB. And Tarnok and now Seth Johnson and Tyler. There are going to be plenty of open spots on the 40 in the off-season. Maybe it gets tighter in March but you worry about that in March.

[andyb]

It is not the current 40-man roster. It is projecting whether the extra year of control is worth it. Yes, Abel has a higher ceiling so teams would lean more into protecting him. But if the equation is starting that 40-man clock before the pitcher is ready it gets more complicated.

You mentioned Seth Johnson. Well we are 2 years into his 40-man clock and he is not close to the majors. Abel is different because he is at lot closer. But the reality is that Seth Johnson might be roughly equal in potential with Samuel Aldegheri in terms of playing value, but in baseball value he is far less valuable since the Phillies are probably 50-50 to lose him to waivers (or have to trade him on a DFA).

Abel has been pitching poorly enough where leaving him exposed to another team may not have been much of a risk. And while he may very well get some major league time next year in an emergency, there is a big chance he will not quite be ready for the majors and force the Phillies to let someone else go (a Nick Nelson type) simply because they need to keep Abel on the 40 a year early.

[Matt_Winkelman]

All of this is irrelevant because there is 0% chance the Phillies don't protect him. He is a former top prospect, who still has plus velocity who is pitching in AAA, a team might trade up to the #1 pick to take him.

Additionally, not protecting him torpedoes any trade value if you want to move on as no other team is touching him until he clears the Rule 5 draft.

The real disaster is him being taken, with the chance of the return being largely irrelevant because you would lose the entire winter and spring training to work with him, and if he is returned you probably just lost half a year of development at minimum.

If he isn't helping you by 2028 when he is out of minor league options than enough stuff has gone wrong that it is already a disaster.

[andyb]

If he isn't helping you by 2028 when he is out of minor league options than enough stuff has gone wrong that it is already a disaster.

Would you have the same opinion if he were in A ball? In my post I mentioned his proximity to the majors as a big part of why he would be protected. Though the performance early in the year also suggested there is just no way he could stick in the majors next year.

If he were in A ball you'd be looking more at a Seth Johnson timeline. The pandemic and TJ surgery put him back and that has hurt his value considerably. Abel has been lucky to avoid the surgery, but if his timeline had been delayed I probably would not be protecting him even with that first round status. Your point on trade value this offseason is good. But frankly I am more interested in developing a mid-rotation starter for the Phillies than figuring out if we can trade him for $0.50 on the dollar this offseason.

[Matt_Winkelman]

If he was in A-ball, like Aldegheri and Cabrera were last year, then I don't think he is protected and he probably isn't selected (also if a HS draft guy is R5 eligible in A-ball they are either a very late bloomer or had TJ).

The trade value part is if you are done with Abel and don't trust him to develop, then you trade him. If you think you can develop him, you keep him. Either way you don't lose him for nothing.

[zambonir]

I guess I just don't think the 2024 Phillies need to worry about years of control the way the 2018 Phillies did (or the 2024 Orioles do).

[andyb]

The issue is mostly not years of control. It is 40-man spots and the risk of losing Abel or other players because he is occupying the spot. Years of control are much more a promotion to the majors timing issue.

[allentown]

They have to protect him. Why take the risk? DD traded pitching at deadline, he's not going to lose one of his highest ceiling starting pitcher prospects.

[zambonir]

It seems fairly cut and dried. His value is still greater than losing a Nick Nelson or not having room for another Mercado type. In either instance Abel himself can be that guy.