Minor League Games - April 5th, 2024

[Squire]

AAA: Lehigh Valley (TBD) at Rochester - 6:05PM
AA: Reading (LHP Matt Osterberg) at Bowie - 7:05PM
High A: Aberdeen at Jersey Shore (LHP Samuel Aldegheri) - 6:35PM
Low A: Clearwater (TBD) at Bradenton- 6:30PM

Rolling Scores Here - https://www.milb.com/scores/2024-04-05/all/all/phillies

Rolling Boxes Here - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=143&date=04/05/2024

[julio]

Thanks, Squire!

[Squire]

Jersey Shore Opening Day Lineup

Emaarion Boyd LF
Justin Crawford CF
Bryan Rincon, SS
Leandro Pineda RF
Hendry Mendez DH
William Bergolla 2B
Felix Reyes 1B
Zach Arnold 3B
Jordan Dissin C

SP LHP Samuel Aldegheri

[phillychuck]

I think I wrote this before, but this year's Jersey Shore team might be exactly the kind of team that can take advantage of their offense-stifling park. Lots of speed, especially at the top of the line, and guys who don't lift the ball in the air.

Also, I love the Aberdeen Ironbirds logo. Very cool. I might order some gear.

[andyb]

Must have been some tsunami in Rochester as they are postponed today also.
https://www.milb.com/rochester/news/roc-game-recap-4-5-24

Note Kerkering was sent to FL for his rehab so he should still be on schedule for 4/9 even if he can't get a boat to Rochester this weekend.

[Squire]

Rincones HR.

[fish]

It’s just one look at him, but Bryson Ware is a physically impressive guy- strong looking legs and a lean but strong, athletic looking upper body. Bat speed looked very good.

Avery Owusu-Asiedu Looks like an nfl player - given that his chases included fastballs down and away, that may not bode well. His double was a fly ball to the track that the left fielder misjudged. Definitely an interesting project.

Eddington was 91-94, and more frequently on the low end but he has a fast arm and good life on the ball which would seem to predict more velocity in the future. Really good slider as advertised, threw a few changeups with good arm speed but not enough separation and life yet. Unraveled a bit when he had traffic on.

Kerkering was his usual self.

[Austinfan]

3-0 with good pitching at each level, obviously they've fixed the farm system.

Some big K games by hitters, probably 1st game jitters but something to watch.

[phillychuck]

At CLW, NPG, Kotowski, Hettinger, Farquhar, and Tjayy Walton didn't play. Would have liked to see all of them, but that is the nature of low-A, there is a lot of lineup rotation.

Kerkering went K, HBP, K, K, K in his 1.1 IP appearance. Teran pitched the ninth: 1B, W, K, K, W, K for the save. Last seven outs were Ks.

Oh, and Miller played SS while Saltiban played 2B. Remember, Saltiban is converting from OF to IF, but the Phils have said they want him at SS.

At Lakewood, the Blue Claws won on a walk-off WP after trailing 2-1 going in to the bottom of the ninth. Big blow was an Emarion Boyd Triple, and the inning included a SB by pinch runner Cade Fergus and a SB by Crawford after walking.

Reading's big three-run 9th-inning rally featured two IF errors by Bowie and a big hit from De La Cruz.

All three games featured tons of Ks from both the Phils' affiliates and their opponents. Could be umpiring or the nature of the modern game.

[Austinfan]

Won't hurt Saltiban's long-term prospects to be able to play 2B, SS and CF.
And while Miller will end up at 3B, being able to play SS in a pinch also makes him more valuable.
Balancing development and utility.

[andyb]

Miller playing SS is really not about him being able to play SS in a pinch. It is about keeping that option open for him. If he can even be average defensively at SS he suddenly becomes a much more valuable player. All these players playing multiple positions is good. The Phillies can figure out where their main position is when they hit AA and AAA. If our other SS prospects don't hit enough, then having Miller and Saltiban as potential options is a good thing.

Saltiban is fascinating because his path as a HS outfielder to a professional middle infielder is just not typical. The Phillies saw the defensive tools and that is probably why they valued him more than other organizations in the draft. Caba is still the most likely prospect to be our next SS when Turner ages out of the position in 4 or 5 years, but it is nowhere close to being obvious.

Where are the minors this year in terms of automated strike zones? Is it all levels? And are the zones wider now after a few years of tweaking? I know the AAA offensive explosion last year was due in part to the zone being too small.

[Austinfan]

If Miller could be a Ripken like SS great, but even if he ends up at 3B, injuries happen, and a 3B who can play SS in a pinch at a respectable level has more value than a Bohm whose only alternate position is 1B. Which is why you keep him at SS until he shows he's a subpar fielder there, the more optionality players can offer, the better.

This has to be balanced with the fact that some players suffer offensively if you throw too much at them defensively.

[bkeich]

If Miller could be a Ripken like SS great, but even if he ends up at 3B, injuries happen, and a 3B who can play SS in a pinch at a respectable level has more value than a Bohm whose only alternate position is 1B. Which is why you keep him at SS until he shows he's a subpar fielder there, the more optionality players can offer, the better.

This has to be balanced with the fact that some players suffer offensively if you throw too much at them defensively.

He has never done it that I know of, but Bohm has the athleticism to play RF or LF (and probably the arm for RF). I wonder if 3B becomes an issue if he could do that. His 3B play has greatly improved since his rookie season.

[zambonir]

I never really understood why Bohm couldn't move to LF but the Phillies never seemed to consider it. Not sure he actually is athletic enough - not enough speed or range, too lanky (though you'd think he could snare some balls at the wall as a result).

He's still not really a good 3B, he just doesn't embarrass himself, sometimes surprises with really strong plays, and is much better than he used to be. Kind of in the same way that I once won "most improved player" at a Penn State volleyball camp. Would be great if his upward trajectory continues (we'll see what DRS and DWAR ultimately say this year) but of course he's also not going to get any faster or more agile from here.

Also still not actually a good enough hitter to play LF or 1B by the normal standards of those positions,

[phillychuck]

Bohm should approach or exceed 2 WAR this year if the defense reaches average and he stays healthy. That's a pretty decent return for a first round pick taken where he was.

Phils will probably part ways with him when he becomes a FA...2 WAR is not worth paying a premium for.

[Squire]

Agree with PC. Bohm would likely be 30-31 by the time Miller is major league ready in any event.

[zambonir]

BB Ref had him at a mere 0.2 WAR last year, and 99 OPS+. FG was 1.4 which he also was in 2022. Defense per FG got worse in 2023, probably due to his play at 1B if we accept at face value that he's otherwise improved.

Just not sure he's ever going to take the offensive leap or actually be any good defensively. Sosa put up 1.0 FG WAR in just 300 plate appearances. BBRef had him well ahead of Bohm at 0.9. Nobody wants to see Sosa play 3B every day (he didn't even pass the eye test some times) but it's questionable Bohm's bat actually brings as much value as we think (though I'm guessing WAR doesn't really factor in his RBIs or success with RISP, because one is not an individual stat and the other is not considered a repeatable skill. If he can sustain that, his value is more obvious).

I also don't think his career WAR is going to seem like a great return on a #3 overall pick. But they don't all make it, and he's certainly not a bust.

[andyb]

I wonder if Bohm is worth it by 2026 given his trajectory. He already made $4 million this year in his first year of arbitration. At $6-$8 million in 2025 he'll be worth it, but if the price is over $10 million in 2026 would he still be worth it? And those dollar projections probably assume he has essentially the same offensive season. If he suddenly adds another 10 HRs he'll be more expensive to go with the mediocre defense.

Miller might be ready in 2026. He is old for his class and relatively polished. Jersey Shore this year and Reading next year with a cup of coffee at the end in LHV would be a reasonable projection for a polished HS player.

[Austinfan]

When they decide Miller is ready, Bohm is gone.
Plus at some point Turner may move to 3B, think he has the arm to handle it.
Bohm is not going to play 1B or DH, and even if he could handle LF, Marsh is pretty set there.
CF is Rojas to lose, but Crawford, Boyd, et al will be pushing for a job by 2027, so Marsh is set in LF in the long-run.

[bkox]

Plus at some point Turner may move to 3B, think he has the arm to handle it.

I cringe lately when Turner makes throws from SS.. they always seem too low or too high.. dont want to see him at 3rd