Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[allentown]

Not nearly as much chance for him to hold up the Phillies as J.D. Drew had. 1.4 next year vs 1.3 this year is pretty much a yawner. It is a lot more dangerous for a pitcher to hold out a season than it is for a hitter. Coming into the season, Singer was the consensus 1.1. What are odds that Mize would be 1.1 or 1.2 this time next season or even that he will be healthy? Phillies likely sign him for about slot. With the hard cap on total salaries and lacking a 2nd and 3rd rounder, the pressure is all on Mize and his agent and that pressure only rises as we sign our 4th, 5th, then 6th rounders at near slot.

Likely this is all posturing and Mize goes 1.1 and it turns out the big debate was whether Mize was going to agree to $7.5 million or $7.1 million. If he slips past 2, his attainable bonus goes down. If he slips past 1.3, it really goes down. There is a reason that the owners changed the draft rules between Drew's day and today. The players aren't in that strong a position.

[julio]

When will the draft picks & signings thread go live?

Squire usually puts it up the first day of the draft. If he doesn't get to it today, I'll take care of it.

For the moment, speculation about the draft can continue in this thread.

[schooldoc]

Keith Law's Mock 4.0 released this morning has it:

1. DET-Bart
2. SFG-Winn
3. PHI-Mize

I, for one, don't believe the hype and still believe it goes Mize-Bart 1 and 2, giving the Phils their choice of Bohm or Madrigal.

On the other hand, I do believe the hype that has the pendulum swinging toward Madrigal down in the war room at CBP.

If that's the choice, I prefer Bohm. It's not that I see Madrigal as a bad player, just one whose ceiling is not high enough to justify taking him 1/3. And not that need is everything here....but I do think especially in looking at college guys (relatively quick arrivals, we hope) it should count for something. The need is greater here for Bohm than it is Madrigal.

[Squire]

You never ever know for sure but if I believe that the Tigers are trying to get Mize's price down by considering other options, then I can also believe that the Phillies are trying to get Bohm on a discount by allowing themselves to get connected with Madrigal. Of those two players, Bohm would fall farther than Madrigal if the Phillies don't take them.

[bigegypt0417]

In your opinion school...what would you say is the difference between the two?

I guess my questions is if he's a 300+ hitter in the majors with medium power is there really not a need?

Is it that you believe Kingery is a better option?

I'm only asking since I'm also meh of Madrigal although I see the attraction.

[Squire]

Am thinking of starting a new thread closer to 7PM for rolling 2018 Draft Day Discussion unless people think that is overkill

[julio]

Am thinking of starting a new thread closer to 7PM for rolling 2018 Draft Day Discussion unless people think that is overkill

It's not overkill.

[andyb]

Apparently Jimmy Rollins' cousin is a fast riser that the Twins are looking at for the 20th pick according to MLB. Osiris Johnson is much bigger than Jimmy (6'1") and like Jimmy is young for his class (does not turn 18 till October). A SS of course.

Jimmy Rollins' cousin looks to make mark in draft, beyond

[schooldoc]

They're very different players.

In Madrigal, it seems to me you have a guy with a higher floor (near-certain major leaguer), but lower ceiling player. There's only so much damage a second baseman who hits 5-6 HR a year and doesn't walk a whole lot can do. He had better hit .300, or he's not close to an All-Star level player.

In Bohm, it seems to me you have a guy with a higher ceiling (impact power bat at a premium position), but perhaps a lower floor (likely major leaguer, but the bat doesn't play as expected and/or needs to change positions).

They're both good players. It's just what your taste is, how risk-averse you are, and for me at least, which is a better fit for the organization currently. I do take that into effect somewhat, because these are top-5 college players who should be in MLB in 2 years and not high schoolers 4 or 5 years away.

Having said all that...I think you have to take Mize if he's there, assuming the financials and medicals check out.

[Philsmania]

Apparently Jimmy Rollins' cousin is a fast riser that the Twins are looking at for the 20th pick according to MLB. Osiris Johnson is much bigger than Jimmy (6'1") and like Jimmy is young for his class (does not turn 18 till October). A SS of course.

Jimmy Rollins' cousin looks to make mark in draft, beyond

At number 20, you possibly take a chance on a fast riser. At number three, you don't.

[andyb]

At number 20, you possibly take a chance on a fast riser. At number three, you don't.

Was not saying that. This is not just a Phillies third pick thread.

[Squire]

BA Mock still says
1. Tigers - Mize
2. Giants - Bart
3. PHILLIES - Madrigal - still considering Bohm here but Madrigal's name has been floating around here more over the last several days. Brady Singer is a third option.

[flyers19rw]

I can't believe that Madrigal is that hot of a prospect. As we saw with Ben Revere, in pro ball, if a player lacks power, theyll get pitched to and the walk rate will go down. In this era of shifts, without power, teams will take away the areas where he hits balls. IMO, he has "buyer beware" written all over him. At 1.3 the draftee has to have a bigger impact than Madrigal.

[California_Dreamin]

Given the Phils terrible struggles with the bat and the dearth of hitting prospects in the minors [most of them are already in Philadelphia, and struggling] I absolutely want Bohm or Madrigal as the first pick. The organization has lots of pitching and Sal has been good at finding pitching prospects.

My first reaction is Bohm because he at least appears to be a potential middle of the order hitter sometime in 2020-2021 but Mookie Betts incredible season, plus Altuve's success, gives me pause to defend a Madrigal pick.

I can be comfortable with either of them, not interested in Singer or pretty much any other pitcher in the first round.

[bigegypt0417]

I can't believe that Madrigal is that hot of a prospect. As we saw with Ben Revere, in pro ball, if a player lacks power, theyll get pitched to and the walk rate will go down. In this era of shifts, without power, teams will take away the areas where he hits balls. IMO, he has "buyer beware" written all over him. At 1.3 the draftee has to have a bigger impact than Madrigal.

I'm not sure just throwing out a random comp in order to make your point. Madrigal has an advanced hit tool and is not anywhere near a finished product. Madrigal is ranked in the top 5 in what most say is a deep draft. The days of discounting height seems to be fading. I'm not ready to say he's a revere...he could be more of an altuve/albies.

[allentown]

I'm not sure why you'd label Madrigal as 'not anywhere near a finished product'. As a collegian he is quite close to a finished product and his observed weaknesses are likely to remain a part of his game. On defense, the problem is a weak arm. Is that very likely to change? Guys don't often go from 'probably has to play 2B' as a collegian on draft day to an average to plus MLB SS. Kingery is a case in point. Lacking in power is his offensive problem. He doesn't have a H.S. draftee or L.A. signee's likelihood of significantly filling out his frame, as Moniak has done. As with Moniak, a speed/contact guy filling out his frame and striving for more power can be as much minus as plus. I guess the scarier thing to me is that Madrigal's skill set is pretty much what we aimed at with our last 4 first round position players. We learned a lesson from the LGJ pick, but are we choosing from a single stereotype of hitting (contact, dearth of power). Admittedly 3 of the 4 picks were truer picks in that defense was strongly considered, as was speed. Randolph was just strange and doesn't quite fit the mold, apart from the contact skills. In a way, Madrigal with his limitation to 2B has the same defensive inflexibility hard ceiling as Randolph does. It just demands more from his bat and puts him at a position with a ton of competition in the org and probably not a ton of trade value. I mean, if we can't get good return for the established value of Hernandez, who is both relatively cheap and controlled for a proven player.... It's time to admit that a profound lack of power limits a players value substantially, as does being stuck nearer the low-end of the positional defensive value scale.

[andyb]

In this era of shifts, without power, teams will take away the areas where he hits balls

Shouldn't the player without power with the superior hit tool theoretically be immune to shifts? The shifts are hurting the one-dimensional power hitters more I would think.

I will say Madrigal has a bit more power than Revere. Revere hit 6 HRs in 1800+ minor league plate appeances. It is college (so different), but Madrigal has 8 HRs in about 600 PAs. Different players. Madrigal is not as fast but is a better hitter with more doubles power.

[Squire]

I prefer Bohm to Madrigal but this year Bohm is SLG .625 and Madrigal .586

[bigegypt0417]

I'm not sure why you'd label Madrigal as 'not anywhere near a finished product'. As a collegian he is quite close to a finished product and his observed weaknesses are likely to remain a part of his game. On defense, the problem is a weak arm. Is that very likely to change? Guys don't often go from 'probably has to play 2B' as a collegian on draft day to an average to plus MLB SS. Kingery is a case in point. Lacking in power is his offensive problem. He doesn't have a H.S. draftee or L.A. signee's likelihood of significantly filling out his frame, as Moniak has done. As with Moniak, a speed/contact guy filling out his frame and striving for more power can be as much minus as plus. I guess the scarier thing to me is that Madrigal's skill set is pretty much what we aimed at with our last 4 first round position players. We learned a lesson from the LGJ pick, but are we choosing from a single stereotype of hitting (contact, dearth of power). Admittedly 3 of the 4 picks were truer picks in that defense was strongly considered, as was speed. Randolph was just strange and doesn't quite fit the mold, apart from the contact skills. In a way, Madrigal with his limitation to 2B has the same defensive inflexibility hard ceiling as Randolph does. It just demands more from his bat and puts him at a position with a ton of competition in the org and probably not a ton of trade value. I mean, if we can't get good return for the established value of Hernandez, who is both relatively cheap and controlled for a proven player.... It's time to admit that a profound lack of power limits a players value substantially, as does being stuck nearer the low-end of the positional defensive value scale.

Your defensive assessment only means anything if the point is to move him from second base. If his bat is as special as reported then you keep him where he'll be elite.

[allentown]

If he becomes elite as 2B, then all is well, but that assumes he (seemingly magically to me) turns into Altuve, who actually is elite. The connection between the two seems to be mainly that they are small. To me, that is like answering any doubts about Bohm by saying "but, Mike Schmidt!'. Bohm won't become Schmidt and Madrigal won't become Altuve.