Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[nycphils]

Name the number of hitters who were at an All Star level who are 5’7”...Jose Altuve, Dustin Pedroia and...not many others. Add in his lacking plate discipline and I don’t see it as crazy to think that isn’t the profile to pick at #3.

[andyb]

t isn’t a problem...in college. You have to rely on his hit tool as a stand alone plus tool, which hasn’t turned out too well with the Moniak pick. Madrigal is intriguing, and I wouldn’t be upset with the pick, but I’d also be prepared to realize he doesn’t end with a profile that Is an all star caliber player.

I am not necessarily advocating for the pick at 3 - just clearing up misstatements. A guy with almost zero strikeouts and a .496 OBP and what scouts say is a 65 hit tool (against 3 years of much better competition than we knew about with Moniak) should not be down-graded for a mid-level walk rate (it is not really low - a little better than Utley as I noted). As long as he hits for a high average he'll be just fine.

That being said - yes I want a bit higher ceiling from this pick. Senzel offered more power as a similar advanced college hitter. I am not totally sold on Bohm because I don't think he is a 3B long term and we have lots of those guys. Bart is interesting and catcher are always valuable trade chips.

Maybe this is shaking out for Mize to drop which I would be all for. Or maybe even Singer though he too is a little safe for this spot. Liberatore seems a consensus drop from top 3 to more like 6-8.

This is not necessarily an easy pick. Take the BPA with ties given to higher ceiling players.

[andyb]

Name the number of hitters who were at an All Star level who are 5’7”...Jose Altuve, Dustin Pedroia and...not many others. Add in his lacking plate discipline and I don’t see it as crazy to think that isn’t the profile to pick at #3.

Add Ozzie Albies this year to the list. And I repeat - he does not lack plate discipline. The guy has struck out 4 times and walks almost twice as much as he strikes out (38 BB and 20 K including last year over 345 AB). Part of a good hit tool is good plate discipline and he has it. Albies is actually a decent comp for Madrigal. Same 5'8", 165 measurements. Good speed. Great hit tool. 2B who can play a decent SS. Walk rates in the 8%-10% range. He strikes out a bit more and obviously his power has emerged in the majors this year, but there are lots of similarities.

[Philsmania]

The problem is, if you believe he deserves to be rehabilitated than you also believe he's a liar, as he now says he didn't do anything.

OTOH, if you believe what he says it's easier to take him.

I don't think he should be playing for Oregon State at all myself, but being allowed to get a job, essentially, is different.

Still, as the mother of his victim said in the NY Times piece (I haven't read the SI yet but SL Price is very good so I'm sure it's extremely interesting):

He Was Convicted of Molesting a 6-Year Old. Should He Have a Future in Baseball?

For her daughter, she said, the case “will only go away when Luke is out of the light. If he makes it to the big leagues, he will be in the light forever. Any accomplishment he makes will shine the light on her. It could be 50 years from now, he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, they will bring up this story.

It's admirable when teams give guys a second chance but I don't necessarily need the Phillies to be team that makes this woman and her daughter feel bad. More selfishly, not sure I need my team to deal with the media coverage. And really, regardless of what might have actually happened the whole things stinks of a person you want to stay away from. I mean, this whole thing came to light because he forgot to register, that's not a good look either (and I think sex offender registries are generally terrible and overused. But if you're careless or indifferent about something like that what else are you careless and indifferent about?)

Tough question. I believe a guy deserves a second chance but this is the kind of crime that arouses intense feelings, particularly here in the "me too" era. See how Philadelphia turned on Pete Rose after the revelations of his carousing with teenage girls. He is, unfortunately, toxic if not radioactive.

This same conversation came up with Michael Vick when the Eagles signed him. There is one friend I have who adamantly insists to this day that he should not have been allowed to play professional football again and be given the opportunity for acclaim. Instead he should have been forced to toil away in some other line of work as a consequence of his actions.

[Squire]

The baseball draft is so unique with the lack of trading picks and with the pools/allocations issues, that its highly likely that the Tigers are just muddying their own waters in order to get Mize to accept less money at 1.1

[andyb]

The baseball draft is so unique with the lack of trading picks and with the pools/allocations issues, that its highly likely that the Tigers are just muddying their own waters in order to get Mize to accept less money at 1.1

Imagine that is true. I guess for us the biggest new question is whether we really should be considering Singer seriously. The rise of Bart (and the Giants seemingly focusing on him) means we choose between Singer, Bohm, and Madrigal. I think I like Singer's combination of performance and high ceiling if that is the choice (assuming no physical flags to consider). It sounds like we would jump on either Mize or Bart if they were available.

[allentown]

I'd prefer to think we are choosing among Singer, Bohm, and Liberatore.

[el-pietro]

Jimmy Rollins was right about 5 foot 7 was't he? Vic wasn't much taller either. 5'8 or 9

[andyb]

Any player who is 5'7" is probably listed as 5'8" or 5'9". Which is what Albies and Rollins and Pedroia and Victorino are all listed at. The height does not bother me as long as he can play. On your side of the pond Ronaldo is 6'2" and Messi is somewhere in the 5'5" to 5'7" range and height does not seem to matter there either.

[el-pietro]

Correct. Though height/strength can matter for specific positions. Goalkeepers and central defenders in particular. A lack of height can be made up elsewhere with specific skill-sets. I'd imagine this is the same in baseball. Height gives you advantages but this can be compensated for. Shorter players have a smaller strike zone too right?

If Isiah Thomas can play in the NBA then there's no reason height should be a barrier to entry for baseball.

As someone who lists himself as 5'8" but is more likely 5'7" I looked up to players (please excuse the pun) like Rollins and Vic.

[allentown]

Rollins was a great 2nd round pick and Vic was a great Rule 5 pickup. Neither would have been a good gamble at 1.1 or 1.3. Of course short players can succeed; the odds of success are simply lower. If we had the 1.9 pick, I'd be hoping along with everyone else that Madrigal fell to us. At 1.3 I'm hoping for better. I guess even at 1.6 Madrigal would be my guy.

[andyb]

Rollins was a great 2nd round pick and Vic was a great Rule 5 pickup. Neither would have been a good gamble at 1.1 or 1.3.

Madrigal has three years of a college track record though. If Rollins had stayed in college he probably would have been a top 10 pick at age 21. Definitely Altuve and Albies would also.

I am not saying he should be our pick. Just that he legitimately belongs in the conversation. A 5'8" HS player has a lot to prove. At age 21 there is more of a track record to make a judgement. Moniak did not really have that track record and we are now paying for that.

[Squire]

If RHP Colton Eastman from Cal State Fullerton lasts until the beginning of the 4th Round, we're definitely picking him, right?

[fish]

If RHP Colton Eastman from Cal State Fullerton lasts until the beginning of the 4th Round, we're definitely picking him, right?

oh man, if ever there was a pitcher who fit the Phils 'type', it's him. Why have one Conner Seabold when you can have two!

[Austinfan]

Ozzie Albies

Short isn't the issue, Joe Morgan was short, had great speed, power, defense and walked 100 times a year.

Albies is 21 and only has a 7.1% BB rate in the MAJORS.
He also has a .233 ISO.

Madrigal is 21 and has a .185 ISO this year in COLLEGE, an 8.9% BB rate.

Sure, Madrigal could add power by adjusting his swing and hitting the weights, oh, we've tried that with Moniak, how's that working for ya?

He's a good player, but is his upside higher than say Kingery?

[allentown]

I'd bet on Madrigal's upside over Kingery's. The real question is would I bet on his upside over the upside of Bohm, or Singer, or Liberatore. I wouldn't.

[bigegypt0417]

I'd bet on Madrigal's upside over Kingery's. The real question is would I bet on his upside over the upside of Bohm, or Singer, or Liberatore. I wouldn't.

I think for me the list is liberatore or Bohm. I really don't love the idea of singer.

[andyb]

Short isn't the issue, Joe Morgan was short, had great speed, power, defense and walked 100 times a year.

Albies is 21 and only has a 7.1% BB rate in the MAJORS.
He also has a .233 ISO.

This is where you miss the forest for the trees. You state that you shouldn't draft short players because they are short. I show you examples of short players who are pretty good. You then change the subject expecting a college draftee to have to lead the league in home runs like Albies to even be considered for a top 10 (not even top 3) draft choice.

When you analyze players solely on their walk rate ignoring the level of competition, their scouting reports, and the context of their performance, you are not really doing analysis. Madrigal probably does have a better upside than Kingery (his upside is kind of like Albies and Altuve, guys who have much better hit tools than Kingery). Do I know he'll get there? Of course not. But not every top 10 pick is an All-Star.

It is fine for you to think that Madrigal is not a top 10 pick. But it is also fine to point out that a mid-level walk rate is not a reason to downgrade him when he has a .496 OBP. Analysis solely by walk rate is just not good analysis.

[Austinfan]

I never said short, I said small and weak.
Short and compact and powerful works in any sport other than basketball (and AI still made it work, though short matters on defense in the NBA).
What makes Altuve or Albies special is power in a small package, not just a hit tool.
What makes Madrigal a risk is whether he can develop power, without power, at 2B he won't be special.

He's great at making contact, but it's hard to sustain a BABIP in the .350 or so range, though with his low K rate (which will still be much higher in the Show) he doesn't need it that high to hit .300.

Do you consider Hernandez good enough to justify a top 10 pick? Because right now Hernandez the last two years (lower BB%, higher BA) is his upside.

[bigegypt0417]

What makes Altuve or Albies special is power in a small package, not just a hit tool.
What makes Madrigal a risk is whether he can develop power, without power, at 2B he won't be special.

Do you consider Hernandez good enough to justify a top 10 pick? Because right now Hernandez the last two years (lower BB%, higher BA) is his upside.

Albies didn't come in to the professional baseball with power...3 HR's in his first 3 professional seasons.

Altuve took about 2000 ML AB's to develop his power. Altuve was a doubles machine during the time he had no power.

I have no idea how you can actually type that madrigals upside is Hernandez. Hernandez hit 14 HR's in 2400 AB's before the last two years.

I don't know if you actually look at the people you use at comparisons but you should.