Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[Squire]

Bohm 2-7, HR, 2B, 2BBs tonight in a doubleheader against Memphis

[schooldoc]

Bohm and his Wichita St. club play in the AAC tournament this week (May 22-27) at Spectrum Field in Clearwater. It's a double-elimination format. Wichita St. is the 7-seed in the 8-team tournament.

Wichita St. plays its first game Wed. 5/23 at 11:00 am against 2-seeded USF.

[Squire]

Two weeks until draft day and Bohm is about to play a conference tournament at the Phillies complex. Its Kismet.

Just out of curiosity... what are people thinking about in Rounds 4 and 5? Any reasonably ranked HS pitcher that will sign? I am not counting on saving much (if any) money on Bohm at 3 for what its worth.

[phillychuck]

I'm sort of picking chalk in the later rounds...hoping to get younger players like HS guys and Jucos, but not go way off the board.

[andyb]

Out of 4 and 5 I am assuming one HS player and one college to balance the money. FWIW lately we have gone more HS position players in the 3-5 range than pitchers. Same with round 11 too which is kind of similar money-wise often. Stobbe, Stephen, Jake Holmes. We do have Falter and Lindow as pitching examples but we probably can't go much overslot so not expecting too much here.

[Squire]

Wichita State has USF in the first round of the conference tournament. Don't know how schools approach these double elimination tournaments. Bohm might get a matchup with McClanahan again or may not.

EDIT: Kiley McDaniel says McLanahan v. WIchita State tomorrow morning.

[Squire]

Kiley chat seems just started. Seems to think there is a chance that Tigers DON'T take Mize. If Bohm/Bart go 1-2, would we take Mize?

[phillychuck]

I'd be to the platform in nanoseconds screaming, "MIZE MIZE MIZE!!!!!"

He's the highest ceiling, lowest floor pick in the draft. Injury risk is the only negative factor, but all pitchers are injury risks.

[zambonir]

This Athletic writer says Madrigal over Bohm.(That's obviously her personal evaluation too as she suggests the Tigers would take Bart or Madrigal if they didn't take Mize.)

2018 MLB Mock Draft: Casey Mize goes No. 1, but who will...

3. Philadelphia Phillies (slot value: $6,947,500)
Selection: Nick Madrigal, 2B/SS, Oregon State
The analytically-minded Phillies will be an excellent fit for Madrigal, who may not look the part of a star with his 5-foot-7 frame, but his numbers do. One scout I spoke with said Madrigal is the best college player he’s ever seen. A broken wrist cost him much of his junior season, but he’s healthy again and has done plenty over the past three years to warrant a pick this high. He’s played mostly second base in college, but several scouts believe it’s at least worth trying him at shortstop. Bohm is likely also in play at this selection.

[zambonir]

jinx!

[allentown]

but several scouts believe it’s at least worth trying him at shortstop.

What a feeble recommendation of his defensive ability. To round out the picture, other scouts say his arm won't work at SS or CF and he is 2B only. I wonder if it's at least worth trying Santana at SS -- his bat would certainly look good there. Maybe Cozens or Moniak are worth a shot there.

[andyb]

Sounds a lot like Kingery defensively actually. Kingery is not a great SS as we are seeing, though he is acceptable for a utility guy. Seems to have a better hit tool than Kingery with less speed and uncertain power.

[Austinfan]

I'd feel better about Madrigal if I thought he would draw enough walks as a leadoff hitter to compensate for his lack of power, i.e. like Hernandez the last couple years.
But 9.6%, 9.2% the last two seasons doesn't give me a lot of confidence that he's going to be a ML OBP machine.
He'll hit for average but no power and average OBP?

If he was a plus SS, he'd be a top ten pick, but if he's 2B only, I think he's grossly overrated.

[andyb]

But 9.6%, 9.2% the last two seasons doesn't give me a lot of confidence that he's going to be a ML OBP machine.

You seem to be the only person in the world criticizing the guy with a 65 hit tool and a .496 OBP about his walk rate. If his hit tool is for real he will have a high OBP. He is not grossly overrated. He is a top 10 player even with modest power and 2B defense. Now for number 3 one might want one of those two tools to be better, but criticizing him on walk rate when he has a .496 OBP and never strikes out is just wrong. Chase Utley had a lower walk rate in college.

[allentown]

I can buy him as a top 10, not as a 1.3, especially for the Phillies.

[nycphils]

Mize, Bohm or Singer for me

[phillychuck]

Yeah, that's where I am, too. Although the HS lefty Liberatore or College catcher Bart wouldn't make me too upset--the Phils will know a lot about Liberatore if they sign him that we can't know, and Bart has the pedigree at a premium position.

[Austinfan]

Chase Utley had power, Madrigal has Ben Revere power, which means he has to be able to draw walks at the ML level. A 5'7 guy who doesn't draw a lot of walks in college raises serious questions.

His hit tool is a slap/contact tool, which won't play as well in the majors.
I don't expect him to be Altuve, but I do want more than Dave Cash.

When you talk top 3 you want something more than say .300/360/.400/.760 at 2B.
If he was a plus fielding SS that would be fine, but top 2B hit better than that.
Would you use #3 on the Cesar Hernandez of 2016-17?

[andyb]

His hit tool is a slap/contact tool, which won't play as well in the majors.
I don't expect him to be Altuve, but I do want more than Dave Cash.

It appears you are not really reading the scouting reports. They say his present power is limited but he is such a good hitter that they expect more in the future.

You are also moving the goalposts in your post. "If he was a plus SS, he'd be a top ten pick, but if he's 2B only, I think he's grossly overrated.". Here you imply he should not be in the top 10. Now you have moved your comment to top 3 which I agree is arguable. And your reasoning is consistently looking at his walk rate being low as a problem and it simply isn't. And BTW if you could guarantee he hit .300 in the majors with a .360 OBP then he might very well be a top 3 pick regardless of whether he adds more power.

[fish]

V

And your reasoning is consistently looking at his walk rate being low as a problem and it simply isn't. And BTW if you could guarantee he hit .300 in the majors with a .360 OBP then he might very well be a top 3 pick regardless of whether he adds more power.

It isn’t a problem...in college. You have to rely on his hit tool as a stand alone plus tool, which hasn’t turned out too well with the Moniak pick. Madrigal is intriguing, and I wouldn’t be upset with the pick, but I’d also be prepared to realize he doesn’t end with a profile that Is an all star caliber player.