Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[andyb]

Without picks in the second and third round, our overslot strategy really depends on what we do with our top pick. Assuming they go for the best player available, the big question is whether they can go under slot or less. IMO they paid overslot for Haseley when they really did not have to - and that might have caused them to go with less expensive 2nd and 3rd round picks. If we go overslot again then we'll probably draft exclusively college players 4-10 and have several seniors among them.

If we manage to sign our first pick at slot then we'll probably have a more balanced top ten. Probably one or two HS players, a few college juniors, and a few cheap senior signs. All that might enable us to scrape together $500K for one overslot pick in the 11th.

Summary is our strategy starting with the 4th round is dictated completely by what we sign our first round pick for. And that is just a variable that we know nothing about at this point.

[gmwannabe]

my thoughts are slot or above for the 1st pick, as per the past 2 years. the rest of the top ten, college seniors. i don't expect many, if at all HS kids. none of the 11-13 rounds excitement that we've had previously. i expect a very boring draft. not much fun this year, for the most exciting thread on this site for years. but as julio has said it is the price of free agency and i don't think I have any complaints either on the signings. well... i hope the international period is more than satisfactory.
gm

[allentown]

I generally agree, although I think the Phillies can go with an overslot HS kid in round 4, with savings in rounds 5-10, including a number of H.S. seniors. That makes it basically a 2-man draft in terms of high ceiling guys. Look for college guys who can develop into relief pitchers, backup catchers, and a couple of college/JC longshots for the rest of the draft.

[Austinfan]

If they have to go college seniors, I'd focus on potential bullpen pitchers, that is, solid starters who lack a third pitch or look to gain a velocity jump moving to the pen. If you can land one solid middle reliever along with a top starter in this draft, that would be a solid haul given you also have Arrieta and Santana for three years.

The other move of course will be to trade some marginal prospects for LA money, and make up what you lost in the draft that way. Much rather do that than get cash, like the Alvarez deal.

[fish]

If they have to go college seniors, I'd focus on potential bullpen pitchers, that is, solid starters who lack a third pitch or look to gain a velocity jump moving to the pen.

If they go slot with their first pick, they can basically re-pick the same type guys 4-10 that they did last year. It wasn't very exciting, but it wasn't all college seniors. Which is why a guy like Infante is a fun type of pick for me- one of his tools is a 7. You can't draft all guys with one big tool and not much else, but you should try to draft a couple.

[Squire]

Last year the first 8 picks in the draft were as follows

1.1 1,045,700 UNDER Slot
1.2 36,800 OVER Slot
1.3 31,900 OVER Slot
1.4 851,400 OVER Slot
1.5 1,292,000 OVER Slot
1.6 AT Slot
1.7 AT Slot
1.8 319.600 OVER Slot

Seems to me that if you want one of the Actual Top 3 players in the draft at 1.3 this year, we are more likely to need to go over slot to do that rather than under slot. And without a 2nd round or 3rd pick that might be harder.

[Squire]

Anyway, My current uneducated board is:

1. Casey Mize, RHP
2. Matthew Liberatore, LHP
3. Shane McClanahan, LHP
4. Ethan Hankins, RHP
5. Nolan Gorman, 3B

[Purduke]

We keep talking about having to go under slot if we want to go over slot. Yes, we will saved a couple 100,000 in rounds 8 - 10, but has something changed with the 5% non-penalty allowance this year? I understand it will be worth less absent our 2&3, but it seems to me that all we really have to do is cash in a couple 8-10 selections, spend the 5% and avoid our past urges to seriously overpay where we could get by with a little overslot (Irvin comes first to mind) and this won't really pose a serious strategic issue to even a mild gamble at 102.

[allentown]

Yes, there is the 5% overage. That likely goes to the first round pick. It is important to do well with that pick. Yes, we will save a few $100K in 8-10. I'm also proposing that we save in rounds 5-7, so that we can take and sign the best signable talent we think is left on our board at #4. Essentially a 2-person, high-ceiling start to the draft, followed by a sustained drafting, earlier than most organizations will be turning to them, under-slot collegians whose ceiling is middle reliever/back-up catcher/utility IF (good fielding proven at college level, but little bat). A way to turn this into a 3-player high ceiling draft is to trade for one of the small-market charity draft picks, which I believe are tradable after opening day. This is the year for all of our scouts to be pounding the bushes looking for guys with a chance who are willing to sign below $100K. It's a strange year -- we will be going into our first season with 2 GCL teams following a draft which is likely to be very low on H.S. talent.

[Squire]

Going to be an eternity from 3 to 107. It's not the Phillie nature but i wouldn't be opposed to picking true value at 3 and just playing hardball at slot. Worst thing that happens is we get # 4 next year.

Saw two mocks today. One gave us McClanahan and one gave us Madrigal

[SerAdonisKingery]

Bowa said today that the Phillies were sending him to look at potential infielders for the #3 pick. Mentioned he was going to Oregon State (Madrigal), Wichita (Bohm), Stanford (guessing Nico Hoerner
with a later pick) and couldn't remember the 4th place. I'm sure this is just due diligence but please take an arm. My current board is 1. Mize 2. Hankins 3. Liberatore 4. Gilbert 5. McClanahan with Rolison being a close #6. I'd take any of them over my top position guy Swaggerty.

[Squire]

Pools announced today. Despite not having 2nd or 3rd round picks, Phillies have the 13th ranked pool at $8,858,500. 3rd overall pick slot is 6,947,000. That being said, I do NOT advocate skimming from the #3 pick slot. Get the guy you want at 3 and shoot for the stars. We aren't picking this high for 6-8 years.

[LoneStarPhan]

The Phillies have a dismal record on first round picks. They need a big win on this upcoming #3.

[zambonir]

I don't think what happened before this front office matters at this point. Certainly Johnny Almaraz doesn't feel any pressure because Larry Greene was a bad pick.

Plus, the last five picks are two potential stars on the current major league roster and three guys we don't know about yet.

It's not an easy position giving up those other picks. Any agent representing their pick knows the Phillies have to make the most of it. I don't think it will be about saving $ for later rounds, I do think it will be about knowing they can sign the guy before they make the pick, whether it is under, over or at. If someone is plainly the PBA at #3 of course they should get him but that seems unlikely to be the case, as was also true the past two years (hindsight doesn't count).

Really, the Phillies already decided this draft wasn't that important when they reallocated their energy and resources to the immediate future. One of the reasons the Gillick/Amaro drafts were so bad was because they gave up picks, but it was worth it (up to a point) then and hopefully it will be now.

So yeah, that puts a lot of pressure on the only pick they have but does that mean you go high ceiling or low risk?

[fish]

I don't think what happened before this front office matters at this point. Certainly Johnny Almaraz doesn't feel any pressure because Larry Greene was a bad pick.

He probably should feel pressure because in 3 years of picking in the top 10 all he has to show for it so far in terms of guys that have established real prospect value is Kingery and Romero.

[zambonir]

For sure. And he wasn't hired by this GM. But 2005-2012 doesn't matter anymore. And neither do 2016/2017 IMO (yet).

I'm surprised he's still here, tbh, but that may also go to show that the job is not as important as we may think it is. If the upper level guys make the big calls (including overhauling the entire scouting apparatus) it's his job to execute their vision, not have one of his own.

[Purduke]

Arizona and Arizona. Hmmm.

[schooldoc]

Friday night, aces up.

Shane McClanahan (USF) vs.Tulane 6 ip 5 h 3 r 1 er 3 bb 12 k (lost 3-2 on Thurs. night)
Casey Mize (Auburn) vs. Missouri 7.1 ip 5 h 2 r/er 0 bb 7 k (won 5-2)
Brady Singer (Florida) vs. Vanderbilt 7 ip 2 h 1 r/er 1 bb 11 k (won 8-4)

[Squire]

BA Top Ten Mock:

1. Tigers - Shane Mize, RHP
2. Giants - Matt Liberatore, LHP
3. PHILLIES - Nick Madrigal, SS - what?
4. White Sox - Shane McClanahan, LHP
5. Reds - Brad Singer, RHP
6. Mets - Ryan Rollison, LHP
7. Padres - Brice Turang, SS
8. Braves - Ethan Hankins, RHP
9. A's - Travis Swaggerty, OF
   10.Pirates - Alec Bohm, 3B

[fish]

BA Top Ten Mock:

Tigers - Shane Mize, RHP
Giants - Matt Liberatore, LHP
PHILLIES - Nick Madrigal, SS - what?

I would agree that of all the things we need, another middle infielder isn't one of them- but if you had a chance to draft another Scott Kingery (who he is now) or a college pitcher with an arm you were worried about falling off- which would you choose? They need dominant starting pitching bad enough now that I don't think it's an easy question to answer- only that on some planet Madrigal makes sense.