Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[teabag259]

Liberatore sounds a lot like Hamels.

[Squire]

Casey Mize with a 13K no hitter tonight for Auburn.

Draft class looking sweet at the top for pitching.

[Squire]

Brady Singer 7.0IP, 2H, 0R, 2BB, 8K against Rhode Island last night

Shane McClanahan 6.2IP, 4H, 0R, 3BB, 9K against Central Michigan

[phillychuck]

Squire,

Don't top pitchers dominate the mid-major baseball teams this way every season, or is this performance anomalously exceptional?

[gmwannabe]

it looks like the phils now have a 1 and a 4 (plus 5-10) left. i guess the losing of the 2 and 3 corresponds with the allocation money loss. correct? What do they have now?
gm

[julio]

it looks like the phils now have a 1 and a 4 (plus 5-10) left. i guess the losing of the 2 and 3 corresponds with the allocation money loss. correct? What do they have now?
gm

You're correct that when a club forfeits a pick, they also forfeit that pick's draft pool amount. WRT your second question, as far as I know, the 2018 pool amounts have not been announced. Last year, Baseball America reported the pool values sometime in mid-April.

[Squire]

I support the signing of Arrieta. Going to be a long gap between 3 and around 103. Could we trade Eflin or Thompson for a competitive balance pick?

[Austinfan]

It does change their priorities going into the draft, taking a college pitcher who is only 2 years away has less value than a couple days ago, since the rotation is closer to being set and in two years guys like Medina and Sanchez can step in.

So they can focus more on BPA.

[Austinfan]

Why. Would we get anyone with their upside at that point in the draft (and they'd be 3 years further away).
Better trading for an A ball pitcher to a team that needs ML depth than a draft pick.

[allentown]

Yes, they most certainly get someone with the upside of Thompson. Not sure what Eflin's upside is if his legs are now healthy. Thompson's upside is fairly low -- high HR rate, consistently mediocre K rate. Thompson and Eflin are closer and have higher floors, but ceiling is another issue. Thompson's ERA in Philly last season was pure luck. And yes, I would like to see the Phillies take a college SP in the first round, unless a position player takes a big step forward from what seems available now.

[Squire]

Although I think losing 2nd and 3rd round picks for guys like Santana and Arrieta is worth it in a vacuum, the fact that I am not particularly sold on Johnny Almaraz makes it more of a no brainer for me.

[fish]

I figure eventually they’ll trade Hernandez this year and that ought to add at least the value of a second and third.

[bigegypt0417]

I support the signing of Arrieta. Going to be a long gap between 3 and around 103. Could we trade Eflin or Thompson for a competitive balance pick?

I would think about holding on to Thompson. Eflin could be a good candidate to trade for a pick in that range.

[Austinfan]

I wouldn't trade Eflin right now, you'd be trading low with a guy who could make a big jump with healthy knees and a stronger lower body.
And Thompson has regained much of his velocity, throwing 92-93 this spring, which is more than good enough with solid secondary pitches.

You have to ask what are you getting in return, if it's not a 1st rd pick, it's not worth it (how many pitchers taken in the 2nd or 3rd round are solid AAA starters, much less potential ML starters). At least with a solid A ball prospect, the odds are much better in your favor.

Guys I'd look to move are more like Eshelman, Tavares, etc., who can provide AAA depth and ML spot starters to teams that are thin at the top of their farm system.

[bigegypt0417]

I wouldn't trade Eflin right now, you'd be trading low with a guy who could make a big jump with healthy knees and a stronger lower body.

That's because you support having a large collection of fringe pitching. Nothing that we've seen supports some type of resurgence from Eflin. You wouldn't be trading low...you'd be trading what he is. A fringe prospect.

It's interesting you'd rather they move a Tavares who is a better prospect than Eflin and pitched at 4 levels last season.

[andyb]

Guys I'd look to move are more like Eshelman, Tavares, etc., who can provide AAA depth and ML spot starters to teams that are thin at the top of their farm system.

Hey, we agree here! I do think Eflin has more upside though it has little to do with his injury and everything to do with developing his secondary pitches. He has decent velocity. Just needs to change speeds better and maybe add some movement.

Eshelman and Tavares ARE guys to think of trading because they have mediocre stuff but have been successful in the upper minors. They also represent low cost, controllable starter to smaller market teams that need to fill out rotations like the Phillies do. If they help us swing deals for more expensive players that is great. Or to replace missed draft choices in our prospect base because we have lots of depth at AAA.

I am bigger on Eflin than Thompson. Just like the raw stuff a bit better but both do have some upside.

[bigegypt0417]

[quote="Austinfan, post:460, topic:50226"]
Eshelman and Tavares ARE guys to think of trading because they have mediocre stuff but have been successful in the upper minors. They also represent low cost, controllable starter to smaller market teams that need to fill out rotations like the Phillies do. If they help us swing deals for more expensive players that is great. Or to replace missed draft choices in our prospect base because we have lots of depth at AAA.

I'm not sure I can agree on Tavares. He seemed to have a good amount of success last year and was far better than anything Eflin has shown. The one thing is they are all essentially the same profile of back of the rotation starters.

[andyb]

I'm not sure I can agree on Tavares. He seemed to have a good amount of success last year and was far better than anything Eflin has shown. The one thing is they are all essentially the same profile of back of the rotation starters.

They are different though. Eflin throws 94-95 and Taveras more 90-91. Eflin had a half season at age 22 in AAA with a 2.90 ERA and very good peripherals (68.1 IP, 49 H, 11 BB, 55 K). He clearly needs better strikeout pitches, but he has more raw stuff.

While Taveras has been very good at each stop, he has also been older. He was a year older last year at AAA and he only has 51.1 total innings over class A. He has been decent in those innings but his peripherals in the SSS above Clearwater were not better than Eflin when he was a year older (51.1 IP, 36 H, 16 BB, 48 K). He changes speeds well and that lets him have a decent (though lower) K rate at higher levels. He walks a lot more too though since his lack of stuff means he probably has to nibble more against better hitters.

Stuff matters, and besides the SSS performances, Eflin simply has stuff that has the potential to play better at higher levels.

[bigegypt0417]

[quote="bigegypt0417, post:463, topic:50226"]
Stuff matters, and besides the SSS performances, Eflin simply has stuff that has the potential to play better at higher levels.

I'm not really sure 2 full year of results would be SSS. I'm not saying Eflin is terrible or anything but you're basically using SSS against a larger body of work. Every stop so far for Tavares has been fairly successful even with a slight difference in ages. Eflin is younger but has thrown way more innings than Tavares.

[andyb]

Every stop so far for Tavares has been fairly successful even with a slight difference in ages.

Most stops there has been a 2 to3-year difference in age. That is pretty big. And Eflin has actually been about as good statistically as Taveras. Low A Eflin was 19 and had a 2.73 ERA in the Midwest League. Taveras was 22 and had a 3.28 ERA at Lakewood which is a great pitching environment. High A Eflin was 20 in the California League (tough league for pitchers) and had a 3.80 ERA. Taveras was great at Clearwater (2.38 ERA) but was 23. Then he advanced a couple of levels for 51 innings but that is really the only SSS.

Eflin was pretty good at a young age at all these levels over multiple seasons. You are just glossing over the differences though. And every single scouting report doubts Taveras' stuff. He did not make the MLB.com top 30. 27th on Matt Winkelman's ratings. He just has mediocre stuff and gets people out with deception. Sort of a lesser version of Ben Lively.