Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[allentown]

I don't think Senzel signs for $6.2 million as the 1.1. I'm guessing the Phillies contacted him and were told that he would require something around $8 million to sign at 1.1.

[allentown]

Teams with the best scouts, a solid organizational plan, and bold management, along with the willingness to spend every $ they are allowed to spend, just get lucky with greater frequency. Teams without those attributes have far less luck.

[Squire]

Anyone kinda viewing this draft as a one-pick draft for the Phillies? I am hoping that this is our last time picking in the Top 5 for a while. I am little concerned that the loss of the second round pick might have a small impact on our ability to get who we want at #3. It seems clear that last year the Braves forced the guy they wanted down to them at pick 5 by paying 1.3M OVER slot. Rays went 700K OVER slot to take McKay at 4. We may need to steal money from later picks to get the guy we want at 3 overall. That's harder without a second round pick obviously.

Anyway, I like Singer, Hankins, Liberatore, Gorman, Turang and Mize in that order.

[teabag259]

Singer probably will be gone by 3. But Hankins and Liberatore would be great in that spot. I'd put Gorman a tick below # 3 level. Turang and Mize aren't # 3 caliber.

[Squire]

Not sure what you mean, aren't #3 caliber. Are only 3 players worthy of the #3 pick? So the player you rank fourth, fifth and sixth are not #3 caliber? Just asking.

Anyway, my current ranks are irrelevant as the board will look completely different in 3 months.

[teabag259]

I agree that the board will change. But based on what I’ve seen and read Turang isn’t a kid I’d touch at 3. I don’t think he has the physical projection to warrant that pick. I see a lot of Dansby Swanson In Him. Gorman might be that level if he keeps progressing. He has that power tool that can’t be taught.

[Purduke]

If Brad Holland loves either Liberatore or Gorman then they move to the top of my list until he changes his mind. I know I am a one drum band regarding Holland but my only disappointment with him is that he doesn't live in Orange County.

That said, I was glad the Phils promoted him to supervising scout for the Southwest last month as I presume that will include Texas. Phils have just never seem to have a presence in Texas. Not that they have had any major misses -- more like just an absence there. With this being a reportedly down year in SoCal HS -- maybe that will be a good thing.

[Squire]

That is a good point. We really have done a way above average job with regard to our Arizona picks in previous years. Obviously way to early on Holmes, but hard to argue on Ken Giles, Scott Kingery, JoJo Romero and even Dylan Cozens.

[Purduke]

And Altherr. Probably the only toolsy bat we hit on during the last 10 years, and got him in the 9th round. Holland also had Colorado in his area and although we don't have a history of picking high there, I also give him credit for the Greg Pickett signing. went overslot on it but less than I think many thought would be needed to get him signed. Throw in Kyle Freeland in the 35th round in 2011, and even though not signed, Freeland's father said the Phil's offered "9th round money" to sign him but I just don't think Kyle was ready (confidence wise) for a pro career at the time. Maybe he was right -- certainly worked out for him going the Evansville route.

[Squire]

Jeff Ellis of Scout.com published his Top 36 draft prospects which was quite different from the BA and the MLB.com lists:

1. Casey Mize, RHP
2. Ethan Hankins, RHP
3. Nander De Sedas, SS
4. Nick Madrigal, SS
5. Logan Gilbert, RHP
6. Matt Liberatore, LHP
7. Tristan Pompey, OF
8. Jarred Kelenic, OF
9. Nolan Gorman, 3B
10. Brice Turang, SS

McClanahan at 15, Singer at 16 and Rocker at 17

[andyb]

Fangraphs also published their first rankings. Top 5 are Singer, Gorman (who seems to be rising in the rankings), Hankins, Liberatore, and McLanahan. Liberatore hopefully has a good season as he just makes so much sense for the Phillies if he were the right choice at number 3.

MLB Draft Rankings: 2018, 2019, and 2020 | FanGraphs Baseball

[kmc1019]

The MLB draft is at once fascinating and scary. Casey Mize is rated #1 on the Scout.com list but only 18 on Fangraphs. Singer, Hankins, Gorman and Liberatore all talents who seem to be consensus top 5-6. I'd grab any of them if I were the Phillies, and at least 2 of them have to be there at #3.

After 3 top 10 picks who have failed to create excitement or dominate single A pitching, please, please, please......I just don't want to hear the Phillies pick an OF whom they claim has a "great hit tool" - which has become the equivalent of the Flyers drafting forwards who they say are "good two-way players", i.e. mediocre offensive talents.

[bigegypt0417]

After 3 top 10 picks who have failed to create excitement or dominate single A pitching, please, please, please......I just don't want to hear the Phillies pick an OF whom they claim has a "great hit tool" - which has become the equivalent of the Flyers drafting forwards who they say are "good two-way players", i.e. mediocre offensive talents.

You have the benefit of SSS on your side. I know you've already written the end of the story but we're nowhere near that chapter.

[bigegypt0417]

Fangraphs also published their first rankings. Top 5 are Singer, Gorman (who seems to be rising in the rankings), Hankins, Liberatore, and McLanahan. Liberatore hopefully has a good season as he just makes so much sense for the Phillies if he were the right choice at number 3.

MLB Draft Rankings: 2018, 2019, and 2020 | FanGraphs Baseball

I like Gorman and Kelenic.

for HS players they seem to profile as pretty advanced for their age. Kelenic playing on a travel team may get him drafted in the top 3...

[fish]

The MLB draft is at once fascinating and scary. Casey Mize is rated #1 on the Scout.com list but only 18 on Fangraphs.

Look for game video of Casey Mize on youtube if you have the inclination. His stuff is amazing with really good command- a crackling fastball with a nasty slider and splitter. And a history of arm aches enough to make you think he's about to blow- but aren't they all I guess.

[Squire]

As of right now, I am just focused on the Fangraphs Top 5: Singer, Hankins, Gorman, Liberatore and McClanahan.

[andyb]

Keith Law top 30:

Keith Law's preseason top 30 MLB draft prospects

His top 5 is Hankins, Mize, Swaggerty, Gorman, Liberatore. He has Singer 22nd and McLanahan 13th. The wide variation in Singer and Mize rankings is interesting.

[fish]

Good start to the season and nice article up about Matt Liberatore on BA. 14k complete game (90 pitches). He's really growing on me. Besides the size (6' 5") and easy in his delivery, he's staying strong (pitched over 90 with his fastball the entire game) but not too strong (apparently nothing over 95 mph). He commends his curve and it has a really high spin rate without putting to much torque to give it power yet (low to mid-70s). And as an added bonus, he's in Arizona. So if Brad Holland likes him, that would be good enough for me!

[Squire]

BA already tweaking their rankings:

1 Singer
2 McClanahan
3 Liberatore
4 Hankins
5 Turang
6 Gorman
7 Rolison
8 Mize
9 Madrigal
10 Swaggerty

[Austinfan]

Sounds a bit like a Nola clone, polished with secondary pitches instead of uncontrollable velocity.