Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[andyb]

It seems very odd that MLB & Players association would agree to LOWER the slot values for 265 of the 315 slots as compared to last year's values. When you look at the reduction amounts (average reduction in picks 56 through 315 is almost $50,000 per slot) it makes me wonder if maybe this is the MLB's first step to improving Minor league player monthly salaries. Why else would both sides agree to reduce bonus amounts?

The new agreement does not reduce the overall bonus pool. It should have increased by the same percentage as before (like +3% annually or something close to that). They reduced the logarithmic spread of the top 5 picks. Theoretically the first round slots should add up to the same as last year's first round slots (+ a small amount) but the difference between the top picks and the rest of the first round will be smaller.

[baseballoldie]

That's what I would have thought as well but when you look deeper into the slot values and the overall total bonus pool, it seems odd that the 2017 total bonus pool is only $234 million which is the same as last year. A 3% increase should put the bonus pool at approx. $241 million for 2017.

There has definitely been a reshuffling of the $ as the 1st round (top 30 picks) total for 2017 is around $112.5 million while in 2016 it was $100.4 million but the overall total bonus pool is same for 2017 as it was for 2016. When has a 0% increase in bonus pool ever happed before? There has to be a reason, right?

[andyb]

They could have misled the players' union on the first year reset level. There is language that the pools are supposed to grow with revenues in some way. My guess is the union got rolled on the first year amount since they were negotiating so many things at once. Draft bonuses are never a priority for them as they see it as more money for their major league members.

[bkeich]

If I understand correctly minor league players are not part of the union. Is that correct?

If so I doubt the Union even has standing to discuss the draft bonuses.

[baseballoldie]

Per BA, the redistribution of slot bonuses is a result of the recently agreed CBA. Who are the parties to the CBA? MLB and the Players Union.

[andyb]

If I understand correctly minor league players are not part of the union. Is that correct?

If so I doubt the Union even has standing to discuss the draft bonuses.

Minor league players are not part of the union but the union negotiates their bonus pool. No clue if they actually have legal standing and whether or not this has been challenged. Probably related in some way to their anti-trust exemption.

[allentown]

The bonus pool falls under what the union can allocate, because the size of the bonus pool determines the average excess value of draft picks. As long as a team loses a draft pick for signing certain FA, the excess value of that draft pick can affect the amount of $ that players can achieve in FA. As long as there is any tie whatsoever between the draft and free agency, the union has a voice in draft rules.

[Austinfan]

However, the Union doesn't really care what draft picks or minor league players get paid.
Their focus is on their members, i.e., ML salaries and benefits.
More money for prospects is less money for players in the long-run, they'd prefer to raise early year salaries to protect veteran's jobs over paying prospects more.

[Squire]

My way too early just for fun Mock Draft:

1. Minnesota Twins - Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt
2. Cincinnati Reds - Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
3. San Diego Padres - Hunter Greene, RHP, HS
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Alex Faedo, RHP, LSU
5. Atlanta Braves - Jordan Adell, OF, HS
6. Oakland A's - Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville
7. Arizona Diamondbacks - Royce Lewis, SS/OF, HS
8. Philadelphia Phillies - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, UNC
9. Milwaukee Brewers - J.J. Schwarz, C, UFlorida
10. Los Angeles Angels - D.L. Hall, LHP, HS

[bigegypt0417]

My way too early just for fun Mock Draft:

1. Minnesota Twins - Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt
2. Cincinnati Reds - Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
3. San Diego Padres - Hunter Greene, RHP, HS
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Alex Faedo, RHP, LSU
5. Atlanta Braves - Jordan Adell, OF, HS
6. Oakland A's - Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville
7. Arizona Diamondbacks - Royce Lewis, SS/OF, HS
8. Philadelphia Phillies - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, UNC
9. Milwaukee Brewers - J.J. Schwarz, C, UFlorida
10. Los Angeles Angels - D.L. Hall, LHP, HS

Bukauskas is short. His stuff seems really good but a lot of effort in those mechanics...

[bigegypt0417]

I have fallen in love with Tanner Houck. Seems like a definite top of the rotation prospect...

[flyers19rw]

I have fallen in love with Tanner Houck. Seems like a definite top of the rotation prospect.

He has a good FB; not so much right now with the secondary pitches. Some scouts are critical of his 3/4 arm slot and delivery. Could be an elbow problem in the making?
Like you with Houck, I do believe that the Phillies will go with a college arm who they believe can be a front of the rotation pitcher.

[kmc1019]

Total rose-colored glasses here, but I love the idea of a college pitcher who can rise quickly and results in a wave of premium pitching - Kilome, Sanchez and draft pick, plus Moniak arriving to South Philly in 2019, pushing the 2018 playoff team to even higher levels.

[bigegypt0417]

Seems like there are others with Houck on the radar...

Phillies Mock Draft: Experts Point to Pitcher Tanner Houck

[Patchmk88]

I want McKay to fall to us.

[flyers19rw]

Tampa Bay Rays - Alex Faedo, RHP, LSU

I think that Faedo is at Florida, not LSU. He is an interesting guy who has a similarity with Zach Eflin. The two have had surgeries on both knees during the off season. This might cause some teams to back off on Faedo. He might fall down to #8?

[fish]

McKay as a hitter or pitcher? pitching-wise he looks an awful lot like Joe Savery.

[Austinfan]

Given the depth the Phillies have in AA and AAA pitching this year, a college pitcher who isn't a true #1 doesn't have a lot of extra value, he'd be competing with a lot of arms in Lehigh in 2018. We have plenty of #2/#3 types.

I think the odds are they go with another Moniak unless a real college value falls to them.
That is, a high ceiling but polished (no Hewitts or Golsons please) HS player.

You can take the close to ML ready college players in rounds 2 and 3, but #8 has to be a pick with serious upside.

[Patchmk88]

I'm from Louisville, a UL alum and big fan, so me wanting him is for selfish reasons. However, I think he's a better pitcher than Joe was. He's built well and is very durable and struck out over 1 per inning. He's not overpowering but he's a LHP with very good fastball control and a nasty curveball that he commands pretty well (their was a game or two where he hung it a little too much). His mechanics seem to be pretty solid too. Think a Mark Buehrle type pitcher. Add to that the fact that he is a pretty damn good hitter with some pop (not sure if its enough for a first baseman) and you have somewhat of a fallback plan.

[bigegypt0417]

Given the depth the Phillies have in AA and AAA pitching this year, a college pitcher who isn't a true #1 doesn't have a lot of extra value, he'd be competing with a lot of arms in Lehigh in 2018. We have plenty of #2/#3 types.

You can never in your life as a system have enough pitching. It isn't even debatable and true 2 or 3 types don't grown on trees. adding advanced top of the rotation arms is never something you turn your back on...ever.