Looking ahead to the 2017 draft

[bkeich]

With all the talk on this board about Joseph and possibly taking Pavin Smith, some interesting information from this year:

The AVERAGE OPS for a NL 1B this year so far is 0.879. To adjust to that number realize that currently the Phillies are dead last in the NL in WAR from 1B. Joseph has rebounded, but even the way he hit in May is only about average, it is a big hole in our franchise to compete at the next level, which we hope to do in 2 years.

NL Baseball Splits

[Austinfan]

Yes, but corner OFs are in the .770-780 OPS range.
So a LF/1B prospect like Randolph or Ortiz is more valuable than a 1B only prospect with a similar OPS ceiling.
That's because if both max at .800, Randolph can be a credible LF, but Smith will be a below par 1B.
Nor is there any reason to think Smith is going to be a .900 OPS hitter, Hoskins yes, but Smith is more of a gap hitter.

The point is Smith has to project much higher than OF prospects to be "equal," Beck can probably play all three OF spots, so he doesn't have to be as sure of a thing as a hitter.

[andyb]

The point however was more about us not being certain that we have a good first baseman. An 800 OPS Joseph is below average. We really don't know if Hoskins is any better as his minor league record of promotions never had him young for a level. Age matters greatly and the Phillies never really challenged Hoskins. He started out a level behind most college prospects in Lakewood and while he did catch up to Clearwater that year, good prospects often do 2 levels in a year. Hoskins did not do that.

If Smith is the best player we should draft him. Definition of best player is not by simplistic OPS calculations. It also includes defense and baserunning relative to the position. Randolph, for instance, may be a mediocre LF. A good defensive OF could be more valuable than Randolph even if they had the same OPS.

[phillychuck]

I should make the points I'm trying to make more directly. Joseph (average at best NL 1B) and Hoskins (unproven prospect, but one many of us, including me, are optimistic about) are not "established" enough to block the team from drafting Smith if he's the best guy available at that slot in the estimation of our scouts. It's not like the '63 Reds drafting a near MLB-ready catcher.

As an aside, Smith has played some OF and probably could be a decent LF himself. I actually wonder if Hoskins is fast enough to play out there...

[andyb]

Hoskins did play OF and some 3B in college though has been exclusively a 1B with the Phillies.

Smith has OF on his college page but really looks like he was 90%+ at 1B.

Not sure either is credible out there. That does not bother me though. If we have multiple 1B we will make trades. The NL could even have the DH in a few years. These problems have a way of working themselves out. Let's get one good 1B before we start to panic. I might even pose the question of whether TJ can play 3B if Franco continues to have issues. He may not have much range but he is fairly quick and has a good arm. C to 3B is not an uncommon transition (Josh Donaldson).

[phillychuck]

C to 3B is not an uncommon transition (Josh Donaldson).

Others: Joe Torre, Craig Biggio played initially in the pros as a catcher (maybe Hoskins or Joseph can play second? Ha.), Pablo Sandoval. Our own sainted hero, Richie Ashburn, began his pro career as a catcher.

I'm not sure 1B-->3B transitions are as common as traditions to other positions from catcher. In fact, once a player establishes himself as a 1B they rarely transition successfully off that position. (The old Bill James rightward shift on the defensive spectrum idea).

[Austinfan]

Problem with "making trades" is that if you have multiple 1B only types, it's hard to get them enough credible PT to make them viable trade chips.
Say if Hoskins or Joseph could play LF, you could put them both in the lineup, showcase them, and take your time moving them.
But with Joseph at 1B, Hoskins is trapped in AAA, because you're not going to increase either player's value by having them split time at 1B in the majors.

This is also a problem with Hernandez/Kingery, since both are 2B only, again, once Kingery is ready for the majors, you have fewer options.

Whereas as we've seen with Altherr, he can play all three OF spots, so he doesn't block anyone.

A lot of making a good trade is being able to wait until the right deal comes along. That's easier if players are flexible.
So flexibility in and of itself is a "skill" in a prospect.

[andyb]

We are talking about trading Hoskins or Joseph now if both are playing well THIS year. That is not a problem. It is an assessment of the trade market and who would return more value or simply be the better player for us.

Same with Kingery and Hernandez. They both are playing regularly. They are at different stages of development of course, but lack of playing time is not going to prevent a trade or prevent getting value for anyone.

Trades happen all the time. A good test for Klentak will be whether he makes these decisions correctly and figures out how to improve the team when we have multiple players at one position. As a rookie GM he did not do so well with potential trades for Rupp and Galvis. Now after his experience last year we will see if he does any better.

[Squire]

Somebody's going to fall. Just starting to think that the Braves cut a deal (name of the day is Pratto) or the Padres do. Please be prepared Phillies.

[bigegypt0417]

Somebody's going to fall. Just starting to think that the Braves cut a deal (name of the day is Pratto) or the Padres do. Please be prepared Phillies.

In the last few years the Phillies seem very prepared on draft day...I'm not sure this year is going to be different.

[Squire]

I agree with this. Last year in particular I think they executed the plan that they had set out.

[bigegypt0417]

I agree with this. Last year in particular I think they executed the plan that they had set out.

It has been a refreshing change...

[Squire]

BA has ranked Southern California as a 5star "one for the books" kinda year. 75 of the Top 500 are from Southern California alone. Our Southern California area scout has had Almaraz's ear the last two drafts early.

[allentown]

True, but one needs to be significantly less nimble and also less advance planning is required when you pick #1, allowing you to finalize your first round in advance and having all night to prepare for the first pick on day 2 and lock that up before the day starts. This year we have to guess and prepare for what 7 teams in front of us will do.

[Squire]

CBSSports mock draft released today:

1. Twins - Wright RHP
2. Reds - Greene RHP
3. Padres - Lewis, SS/OF
4. Rays - McKay, 1B/LHP
5. Braves - Gore, LHP
6. Athletics - Smith, 1B
7. DBacks - Bukauskas, RHP
8. PHILLIES - Beck, OF
9. Brewers - Adell, OF
10. Angels - Haseley, OF
11. White Sox - Kendall, OF
12. Pirates - White, 1B
13. Marlins -Peterson, LHP
14. Royals - Hall, LHP
15. Astros - Baz, RHP
16. Yankees - Pratto, 1B

[andyb]

Keith Law's Big Board update (not a mock):

Keith Law's 2017 Big Board: Explosive pitchers top draft list

1. Greene
2. Wright
3. McKay
4. Gore
5. Lewis
6. Haseley
7. Warmoth
8. Hall
9. Bukauskas
10. Kendall
11. Baz
12. Smith
13. Pratto
14. Enlow
15. Rogers
16. Beck

Law likes Warmoth and Hall much more than others (and his description of Hall really fits what we need - athletic LHP who sits 93-94 with plus curve, average change, and movement on the FB). He does not like Beck or Smith as much.

[Squire]

Callis latest mock gives us Smith. Says it looks like it will be a collegian pick with hitter (Smith, Haseley or Burger) more likely than pitcher (Faedo, Canning). If we go the HS route, it could be Baz. He has Bukauskas falling all the way down to 14. I guess timing is everything

[Squire]

And now John Manuel has weighed in with an updated mock saying the Phillies are "off" Smith.

1. Twins - Wright
2. Reds - Greene
3. Padres - Gore
4. Rays - McKay
5. Braves - Lewis
6. Athletics - Beck
7. DBacks - Haseley
8. PHILLIES - J.B. Bukauskas, RHP

The Phils are said to be off UVA’s other first-round bat, Pavin Smith, and are the highest potential spot for Bukauskas and Florida righthander Alex Faedo.

1. Brewers - Adell
2. Angels - Faedo
3. White Sox - Kendall
4. Pirates - Pratto
5. Marlins - Baz
6. Royals - Hall
7. Astros - White
8. Yankees - Canning

If true that seems like a big development.

[Lawman]

Oregon State’s Luke Heimlich removed from some MLB draft boards after revelation...

[Squire]

I would love Bukauskas. Perception is reality I guess. Wright was terrible early and better late and he's likely 1.1. Bukauskas was great early and had two bad starts at the end of the year and he's falling into the teens. Despite the fact that Bukauskas has better numbers over all. I think at absolute worst case (floor) for Bukauskas he ends up being a Huston Street type closer and at best he's a healthy Sonny Gray in his prime.