Klentak has stepped down

[andyb]

Does JT even want to sign with a team that doesn't have a GM and can't really articulate their plan to compete in the next 2-3 years. The Mets and Nats clearly are interested, so this is not going to be an easy decision. The money will be close everywhere. JT could pick the best potential playoff situation given equal money and I am guessing the first 3 years of a 6-year deal will be more important than the last 3.

[zambonir]

It's a good question. It's also moot if we're still not prepared to be the high bidder.

Lots more info in the two Athletic stories. In the full version of his quote defending MacPhail, Middleton actually mentioned Steve Bartman stealing another World Series title from his resume, and what a great job he did in Baltimore before he left for family reasons. Says he'd be lost without guys like MacPhail and Gillick and Ryan (who's retiring this year).

[andyb]

Of course one could ask how the Phillies failed to have a successful rebuild in the past 5 years with some many wise men helping Klentak. Perhaps this committee of elder advisors are part of the problem.

Without a GM I suppose we can be the highest bidder. That means Middleton is the de facto GM and I am not sure anybody wants the guy who just admitted he doesn't know what he is doing to push them into a $150 million decision.

[zambonir]

Well I'd say Rice and MacPhail are still there to do the GM job. Middleton talked about how involved Rice was in the Harper signing, and I think Proefrock is actually the $ guy (in terms of projecting future payroll, arbitration, CBT considerations).

Right now Middleton doesn't sound like a guy who wants to damn the torpedos and bring JT back at all costs, but if they do move forward on that at least those guys are qualified to discuss the pitfalls or particular terms/ AAV options.

Middleton's argument would probably be that Klentak didn't listen to the council of elders enough. The articles also keep saying that Klentak was too insular, that he didn't listen to the rank and file employees, but who are those people exactly? Does that just mean the scouts, especially the non-analytical ones?

Let's see what that payroll really is next year. If they can't win and attendance is going to be limited anyway (whether due to restrictions, hesitation or just indifference to the product) JT and Didi might not be coming back regardless. Or it's on MacPhail and Rice to see if they can figure out how to offload Cutch or Segura.

Maybe they really should bring Odubel to spring training this time.

[flyers19rw]

You can’t get over or underwhelmed by the Covid season. It was too short for the flaws of some clubs to show. The condensed nature of the schedule was something that took a toll on clubs that didn’t rest players frequently enough. I’m sure that if Girardi had a do over with this season he would have adjusted his play time usage.
If the club had a half decent BP, they would have made the POs. The injuries hit hard as well. Re-sign JT, Didi and make moves to fix the BP and the club will compete next season. It should be a good club. Not as bad as some are saying. Mids has to write some checks.

[zambonir]

I think we're gonna see a lower payroll next year. Same logic as this year with regards to the luxury tax - "I'll spend that money to put a team over the top, but not just to get a wild card." Middleton has already said he and the Bucks put $100 million into the club this year just to keep everyone employed. Now the layoffs are coming, and there's nothing about the history of the Phillies' ownership group, which both of them have been a part of for several decades, that says they'll continue plowing personal wealth into an unprofitable business that has been a failed product on the field to boot! If there's fans in the stands come April and the team is winning in July, things might change.

And even if payroll is stable they simply don't have the money to re-sign JT and Didi plus a #4 starter plus a vet reliever. CF remains a question mark, our 1B might be having TJ surgery, Cutch is probably not a starting OF anymore and Segura is not likely to be any better than he was this year (which was fine, nothing special. Cesar had a higher WAR and identical OPS+ for half the $, though of course we couldn't have kept him that cheaply).

If they don't hire a GM I don't see how you saddle your future GM with long-term obligations to JT and Didi. Maybe one but not both (obviously JT would be the preference, even with the longer term). Their only hope is is the market isn't player-friendly, and it might not be.

Otherwise the only chance to bring back both of those FAs is a big, creative trade - either get Cutch or Segura off the books, maybe by taking back $ that's attached to pitching - or consider moving Kingery or Haseley. Othewise you're still looking at VV in the rotation and a Phelps/Morgan/Hunter/Neris bullpen again (hopefully with a few bounce-back years, and Brogdon and Romero and some others who didn't help this year coming through).

[andyb]

If one believes Moniak can play CF, I think that is the one position you do not address in the offseason. With 3 low cost options (Haseley, Moniak, Quinn) they are likely to cobble together 2 WAR and potentially more.

C and SS need to be addressed. There is an argument to just get a good defensive SS and don't pay a great deal there either. Defense is an issue with this club and if they could get a plus defensive SS that can't hit too much then they can still spot Segura or Kingery there when they need more offense. Not spending much in CF and at SS would give you enough $$$ to sign JT and get a back end starter, maybe even some bullpen help if the starter comes in at less than $15 million.

The other position where I would get a bat is LF. We probably can't move Cutch's contract so let's assume he will DH a great deal. Get a good offensive platoon bat in LF. A Corey Dickerson type that does not break the bank.

[zambonir]

I don't think you can rule out Kingery in CF (or, indeed, at SS with a cheaper glove-first player instead of Didi). I also don't think you can break spring training with Mickey Moniak on your roster. Let him put in the time at AAA he missed this year. I think we already know he's neither a major league CF or a big enough bat for LF, but if he's looking good in July, great. As it is, we have the same questions about Haseley.

Overall, I agree, you spend on JT and pitching. If you can't get JT maybe you keep Didi or go bigger for an OF. In the meantime, heading into 2021 you gotta get free of Cutch and find out if Kingery can play (while also getting more definitive answers on Eflin and Howard).

I know we're not actually going to get Corey Dickerson himself, but he was only barely better than Bruce this year. The financial picture demands that our non-GMs find a couple of lower-cost higher-value players, compared even to what the Marlins paid Dickerson (or the Mariners paid Bruce).

[baseballoldie]

The Phillies have a good defensive SS that can’t hit too much in their system- Gamboa. Part of the reason the AA team was strong this year was that they played excellent team defense.

[zambonir]

What AA team "this year"?

I think the fact that Gamboa already cleared waivers and was behind Ronald Torreyes tells you everything you need to know about his immediate future in MLB. Now that the Phillies safely control him again, he'll get his year in AAA, maybe he finds his way back to the 40 eventually as a bench guy. But he likely solves zero problems in 2020, and if he's better than Bryston Stott in 2021 that would be a whole 'nother sort of problem.

[andyb]

I also don't think you can break spring training with Mickey Moniak on your roster

That is not what I implied. He would be an option if Quinn and/or Haseley did not improve. Look at our position player prospect base. Who is our most advanced prospect now that Bohm is with the big club? Marchan should probably go to AA or AAA next year. Moniak AAA, though he would also have been on a course to play AAA in 2020 and then the majors in 2021. In other words, expecting Moniak to improve enough in 2021 to be an option at some point in the year is reasonable.

With 3 potential CF options over the course of the year (and the reality that if Quinn even has a 650-700 OPS he is probably a 2-3 WAR player himself, I just don't think the team needs to invest in CF. Invest where we DON'T have a viable AAA prospect.

[andyb]

The Phillies have a good defensive SS that can’t hit too much in their system- Gamboa. Part of the reason the AA team was strong this year was that they played excellent team defense.

He has not proven he can play major league defense yet. Or hit enough to be a weak-hitting major league utility player either. He is closer to being released than to the majors. Remember we still want to be a good team. He is no Andres Gimenez (Mets, 1.0 WAR last year).

[flyers19rw]

It doesn’t make sense to dismiss Didi’s offense, defense and clubhouse leadership. He’s a year older now so his deal will probably drop off a bit in price. Then there is the fact that there are other SS options on the market. Give Didi some term and he might become more affordable. Add to all of this that he is a Joe guy and I can’t see Girardi wanting him to slip away.
As for CF, Andy is spot on. Between what the Phillies have on the roster, the position should be covered. All teams have positions where they go cheap in order to afford players at other places. CF may be one of these for the Phillies.

[nycphils]

I suspect a QO will reduce Didi’s market given his age, so we might have a shot to sign him to a 3 year deal if that is what we want.

I don’t expect Realmuto’s QO to inhibit him at all - would guess the Yankees, Mets and Angels will be leading contenders.

What do we get for losing a QO FA?

[allentown]

It is sounding like 2021 is going to be a lost season in the Phillies planning. Rice and not getting a new GM for the season, and the talk of the $100 million, and so many holes, and contracts they'd like to shed. I am hoping at least QOs for both JT and Didi, likely trade vets at deadline. They will be trying to learn about some of the younger players, especially Kingery, perhaps Marchan and a raft full of pitchers. They are not going to spend significantly to fill holes. I think they've telegraphed that just about as strongly as possible. They are re-evaluating the organizations direction -- that and having a new GM for 2022 argue for creating space beneath the cap so that the new GM has ability to at least somewhat shape the roster to his own approach. We draft top 10 in 2022, very possibly top 5. We are that bad and we won't spend our way out of it this winter. CF will be the kids. If Hoskins can't go, 1B will be the AAAA FA equivalent of Ruf or one of the farm kids. A lot of relatively cheap relievers, some lower-cost FA, from the farm, and minor league FAs from other teams, probably Rule 5. The Phillies just won't be going for playoffs in 2021. I'm reconciled to that.

[EDmuch]

Listening to Middleton whining about bad talent evaluation and then effectively saying he is going to take a year or two in order to find a better talent evaluator could be the lowest point ver of the many, many low points this franchise has experienced.

[andyb]

I am fine with getting Didi on a 1-year deal and certainly overpaying him a bit ($18 million) for the short deal. That is worth the risk of the QO alone. Just not sure I want to talk 3/50 with Didi.

How about Freddy Galvis as the glove-first SS? He is coming off a $5.5 million salary but probably will get something more in the $2-$3 million range after hitting .220 (OPS still over .700 and defense a small positive).

The main point is to step back from the conventional wisdom. Lots of people are saying we need A center fielder. I am fine having multiple options share CF. There are also other ways to building a team that don't involve paying JT $25 million for 6 years or Didi $50 million for 3 years. Both seem great in the clubhouse. That should be one factor in building a team. Just not the only factor.

[andyb]

If Hoskins can't go, 1B will be the AAAA FA equivalent of Ruf or one of the farm kids.

How about Cutch? Clearly he has lost steps in the OF. 1B might be easier on his knees too. This is part of the reason I might want to get another LF that can hit and not a replacement CF. Find a Jay Bruce/Corey Dickerson type that is affordable.

[allentown]

That can work. The problem would be getting a LF on a very short contract. I think they will (and should) want maximum flexibility for the new GM. I don't want Rice to be the guy who rebuilds the Phillies, in essence, by signing guys who reduce the new GM/President's ability to actually reshape the Phillies. To do that, he needs cap $ and roster spots.

[Philsmania]

It is sounding like 2021 is going to be a lost season in the Phillies planning. Rice and not getting a new GM for the season, and the talk of the $100 million, and so many holes, and contracts they'd like to shed. I am hoping at least QOs for both JT and Didi, likely trade vets at deadline. They will be trying to learn about some of the younger players, especially Kingery, perhaps Marchan and a raft full of pitchers. They are not going to spend significantly to fill holes. I think they've telegraphed that just about as strongly as possible. They are re-evaluating the organizations direction -- that and having a new GM for 2022 argue for creating space beneath the cap so that the new GM has ability to at least somewhat shape the roster to his own approach. We draft top 10 in 2022, very possibly top 5. We are that bad and we won't spend our way out of it this winter. CF will be the kids. If Hoskins can't go, 1B will be the AAAA FA equivalent of Ruf or one of the farm kids. A lot of relatively cheap relievers, some lower-cost FA, from the farm, and minor league FAs from other teams, probably Rule 5. The Phillies just won't be going for playoffs in 2021. I'm reconciled to that.

All along, I've been saying that the crossroads that the Phillies are at is that they have to either a) pivot back to a rebuild now or b) go all out for two years to try to pry open a brief one or two year window of opportunity and then hope that it all comes together--a la 1993--either in 2021 or 2022 while the start over again with another rebuild can is kicked down the road a couple of years. It looks like they are choosing the former and paying the piper now, for better or for worse.

I tend to think that you are right that Rice may just be a placeholder whose job it is to clear out deadwood and clear cap space for the next guy. Basically, doing a good bit of teardown work. As for McPhail, he is being transitioned out and looking to bring in his own replacement more so that Klentak's and let this new guy (or gal, in the event of someone like Ng) who replaces him decide how the office of club president will work in terms of whether he/she is the brains of the operation (like Epstein with the Cubs, Friedman with the Dodgers, Bloom with the Red Sox) with the GM being an appendage of him/her or whether he/she is more hands-off like he was with the GM being the brains of the operation. Probably not a good idea to hire a new GM and foist him on the next club president. That's pretty much what they did to Klentak with Almaraz and, to a lesser extent, Jordan. The new guy/gal should have free reign to hire their own people and that probably should include Barber and Girardi. Perhaps Barber and Girardi will prove themselves keepers (and want to stay, see more below about Girardi) but the new brains of the operation should have the ability to keep or replace them.

One thing is certain, Harper is going to be an increasingly unhappy camper. He better get used to being pitched around a lot.

And, how much will Girardi want to stick around managing bad teams (although Mattingly stuck with the Marlins and appears to be coming out on the other side with an up and coming team to run). I don't think managing a rebuilding team was a part of the sales pitch to get him here (as was the case with Harper).

Just google Realmuto and Mets and there are a flurry of blogs and NY Post articles which pretty much telegraph that Cohen has every intention of making a big splash and stopping at nothing to get Realmuto to Queens. I would almost say it's fait accompli at this point. They'll sign him for six years $180 million.