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Oct 2020
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Oct 2020
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Philsmania
Oct '20
1
zambonir

In his rookie season, he should have traded Hellickson but he didn't because he insisted on ridiculous value in return thinking that someone would sign him to a free agent contract despite being tied to a QO. Hence, he demanded first round pick talent in return when he would have marketed him as a guy with another year of control. He could have traded Jeanmar Gomez for a low-level lottery ticket (he had a 2.77 ERA and 27 saves at the deadline). In hindsight, his first trade deadline was something of a red flag in terms of his ability to wheel and deal and read the market.

Philsmania
Oct '20

He was a rule 5 pick so he had to stay with Boston all season.

zambonir
Oct '20
Philsmania

I suspect all 29 teams could already see that Gomez's numbers (and "closer" status) weren't sustainable. And it was not unreasonable to think Hellickson was going to turn down the QO. I doubt he was insisting on "ridiculous" value because I doubt teams were offering that much to begin with. To a good team he was still basically a fifth starter, not worth much more than the Phillies gave up for him in the first place. The part that ended up really backfiring was they cut Morton loose instead.

andyb
Oct '20

We probably should have traded Neris 3 years ago too. At that point one could see he was a good, but not great reliever who would suffer in overexposure because of his limited repetoire. This would have been at the deadline in 2017 when we were not competing and Neris had 2 good years in a row (and was really inexpensive).

At that point he returns a couple of top 100 prospects or something like 80%-90% of the Giles return. If you have an overvalued asset who is not a franchise type player at the trade deadline you should trade that player. In very few trades in his tenure did Klentak bring back young talent. He did not trade for over the hill players too much. He just traded younger assets for older assets after a couple of years of not bothering to do the opposite. A good GM would have flipped Hoskins (a young player with lots of value at the time) when they signed Santana. That would have been a way to keep the 1B offense while acquiring young talent around that offense that might actually play the OF.

Klentak might like a concept (high OBP bat in the middle of the lineup) but have no clue how to plug that concept into an actual team and lineup.

zambonir
Oct '20
1

Agree about Neris, though where would we have been without him the last two years?

It's easy to say it now, but Klentak's legacy- three years of .500 teams - meant being not good enough to win anything, but not bad enough to sell at the deadline either. They didn't give up that much trying to improve each of the last three years, and injuries rendered a lot of guys untradeable, but they'd certainly have more talent. With the additional question of whether the 2019 moves, or not trading JT and Didi at this deadline (admittedly would have been hard to do) were worth it.

fish
Oct '20

If they hire Hendry to replace Klentak I think I’ll sign my disgust for this franchise to an extension.

allentown
Oct '20
1
zambonir

We would have failed to achieve a winning record, just as we did with him. We would have received young players for him, possibly one who would have helped in 2020. We would have spent his salary on another FA reliever or two. If you aren't prepared to contend, then you can improve your future by trading veterans at the deadline, bolstering your future. If you can evaluate vet and AAAA talent, you can replace the lost guy for the next season by signing a FA. Lots of teams follow this approach.

A reliever going south after a year or two of success and extra use (including warm-ups as well as high value IPs) is more to be expected than not. Neris was reaching that point and we weren't good enough to gamble on another good year or two from him.

zambonir
Oct '20

My comment was mostly tongue in check. But Neris didn't go south. He struggled in 2018 and then had a career-best, near-All-Star season in 2019. The time to trade him would have been after 2016 (but he was still a young unproven guy who wouldn't have gotten you much) or 2017 (his first year as closer but still not a hugely valuable piece). You can certainly say now that he could have or should have been traded at any time after that but the same is true of almost every move the Phillies made to win games in 2018 and 2019, they are all mistakes now. They kept Hector because he was still young, controllable and effective, and for his role, he worked out better than Santana, Arrieta, Hunter and Neshek (and Robertson too).

For what this team has actually accomplished and for what they are likely to accomplish in the next three seasons you could just as easily say that they should have traded Hoskins and Nola.

andyb
Oct '20

If they had traded Neris the team would have paid more attention to bringing in young, hard throwing arms in trades that might profile as good backend relievers. It might not have worked, but it would have put them in Tampa Bay mode earlier. And that is a mode that they should be in now - looking for low cost hard-throwing arms that can become good bullpen pieces.

Philsmania
Oct '20
2
fish

But if they make him PBO and bring in Naehring or Oppenheimer from the Yankees to be GM, that might work out. I want to see guys who come from successful organizations. At the time we hired them, we couldn't really say the same about McPhail and Klentak. The argument that "Well, they laid the foundation for the Orioles' renaissance" down inside always struck me as kind of a stretch. And, in hindsight, it's not like the Orioles built something that was really all that special from 2012-16. Just a good team that cracked the postseason three years, managing to get to the LCS once.

We're a big market franchise. We don't need to play Moneyball like Oakland and Tampa Bay do. And besides, for all that those two organizations do right, neither has made it to baseball's mountaintop and they have one WS appearance between the two of them this century. What we need to do is build a good, sustainable farm system that gives us a pipeline of talent. Analytics can help us spend our considerable resources wisely, not be the organizational lifeblood as is the case with Oakland and Tampa Bay (though in the case of the latter, the Rays always have a strong farm system). The ultimate role model organizations situated like us are the Yankees, Dodgers and Cardinals, three organizations that are typically good year after year after year and only very rarely have more than one losing season in a row or go more than three or four years without appearing in the Postseason. Then you got the organizations like the Red Sox and Cubs which need their rebuilding phases but find a way to maximize their windows of opportunity (though Cubs have only done that once).

allentown
Oct '20
zambonir

Yes and no. Neither of them, nor Harper plus Realmuto plus Wheeler plus Did, were enough to yield a winning season, as in just one game over .500 -- that's certainly true. The reality, however, is that no position in baseball yields less repeatable season-to-season results than relief pitcher. Position players are the most reliable, until they pass 30-32. So, if you are at a trade deadline situation and want to convert some present talent into future, then trading a good relief pitcher is least likely to hurt you going forward. Neris's good and bad years were not easily predictable. As we've seen from the relief pitchers we acquired this year, forecasting pre-trade deadline to post-deadline is even very, very spotty. It's part SSS. Except for reserve position players, nobody has a smaller season sample size than relievers. Few see as large a variation in workload.

If we are going to leave GM vacant for the season, then the guy I want is Epstein.

bigegypt0417
Oct '20

I know it's a longshot but i'd like to see the phillies go after Erik Neander...i think if you offer him the president job and big money, you have at least a shot.

zambonir
Oct '20

I agree Epstein and Neander are 1 and 1A. Arbuckle was in the paper today lobbying for Piccolo and he sounds okay too though the Royals are still not the franchise I'd use as my pipeline. What is frustrating is they could have hired Bloom (from the same tree as Neander) or Piccolo the first time. Kantrovitz, who was with the A's, is now the head of scouting for Chicago and presumably would stay/move up when Theo leaves.

The Rays make their trades when A) the players have established solid value that makes the trade return more appealing than keeping the player and B) they've moved into the more moderately expensive arb years. Neris had not done both of those things at the same time prior to 2019.

fish
Oct '20

I’m skeptical of anyone in the Yankees front office who has been around for a long time; however, In the last few years someone in the front office essentially figured out what the rays have done to identify talent at the margins and coach them up to be really good contributors. Maybe that was Naehring- I’ve never hear who they attribute that to. I have read that he’s rejected gm jobs because he doesn’t want to move from Cincinnati. I guess that makes him a good candidate for the reds job.

EDmuch
Oct '20

If I am Harper, I am politely and privately communicating a trade request. This organization is going to be in chaos for at least the next 3=4 years, prime years of Harper's career. I am completely disheartened by Middleton's inept, non-decisive response to the current situation. No timetable ???? Give me a break. The house is on fire. It should not be that difficult to figure out you should call the fire department.

DurhamBull
Oct '20

Although I hope for better (and think it's possible), it wouldn't surprise me if it took a few years for the Phils to turn it around. I've grown to really like Harper. He's over the top, but it seems like genuine, heartfelt passion. In many games when the Phils's offense was flailing, I saw Harper try to provide some spark -- steal a bag, turn a single into a double, etc. He's trying to make the people around him better.

I'm sure he'd rather be on a better team, and he might ask for that, but I could also see him having no thought of that. He might just view sticking it out as the loyal thing to do, and he'll do everything he can to make it work for him and the team.

2 years later
EDmuch
Oct '22

Hey Mac !!! I will not use any form of name calling. But the post you are referring to is 2 years old. back when Klentak was still in charge. I mean, really, get a life.

zambonir
Oct '22

hahaha I actually thought it would be fun to find some of our cold takes from say, July. Or mid-September. but this is a lot. at the time, it really looked like they weren't going to hire anyone that off-season! Wonder how the Inquirer column holds up.