July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[bigegypt0417]

Phillies currently have 58 million dollars under the luxury tax cap for this year. Greinke's number is 34 million dollars so it's more than enough room.

Phillies are currently at 116 million committed for 2020 so they have to room to add significant players to the roster if they chose.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/payroll/

[andyb]

That is not correct. We are about $16.9 million under according to Cot's:

Google Sheets

Barely enough to fit the rest of Grienke's 2019 contract which is about $15 million now but goes down close to $200K a day.

[bigegypt0417]

It seems there are disparities with jay bruce and his salary...cots has 14 million and the other has it adjusted at 1 million.

Seattle seems it's on the hook for a big chunk.

[andyb]

We are paying $1 million this year and $1.75 million next year for Bruce. That is not what is affecting the AAV though.

[bigegypt0417]

So it's not 14 million against the luxury tax...its 1 million. So cots has those numbers wrong.

Sportac has each team with their available dollars...

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

[andyb]

Cot's is NOT wrong. They have a $13 million AAV salary and a negative $11.625 credit on the AAV tax on their spreadsheet. So our AAV for Bruce is $1.375 million this year.

They have updated to show us with a little over $17 million in room now. Every time someone goes up and down from the 40 to the 25 it changes a bit.

That Sportac site is just not even close to reality.

[bigegypt0417]

So please explain how they are wrong.

Why is it you feel cots has it right?

[andyb]

Because they include every line item like 40 man roster costs and the $14.5 million benefit costs and pro rate all contracts like even Brantley.

Your site does not even add up to the.components it lists much less include benefits and 40 man costs.

[bigegypt0417]

Ok... i see it now.

The more I read, the more it becomes clear the luxury tax is not really a big deal until you get over the number by a really big amount. it's not a concern until you get to 40 million dollars above the threshold.

A 10 spot drop in the first round.

[zambonir]

It shouldn't be a big deal and yet most teams with money are scrambling to avoid it, it seems to be functioning as a de facto cap (if not something that's being colluded on).

I always thought they'd find a way to move on from Neshek, Hunter or Nicasio at the deadline to help take on more $ but that's no longer much of an option. If you really go after Greinke maybe you ask Arizona to take Franco. I'd also be looking hard for someone who might be willing to withstand the Herrera firestorm (a real longshot and he doesn't even make that much $ this year but it's something. Obviously the Phillies would be paying down future years).

[fish]

I'm not a huge Cashner fan, but he is obviously better than sending out Velasquez and hoping your still in the game after 4 innings. Not pursuing that move because of a concern for causing ripples in the club house culture seems pretty blind to reality. There are probably 5 guys that need to be shipped out to improve that culture as it is. You can hardly spoil what they have at this point.

[Taudawg]

Moniak and Bohm both out the lineup tonight. Probably nothing...

[schooldoc]

I'm going to speculate that this was because of the weather conditions at Reading. Game was in fact suspended in bottom 1st due to "wet grounds."

[zambonir]

Granted the D-Backs have the misfortune of playing in the same division as the Dodgers, and they also have $ issues, but run differential says they are 8 wins (and 77 runs) better than the Phillies, we're supposed to buy from them?

The good news is there's truly no other second wild card team that looks any better than the Phillies do.

[teabag259]

I saw mention that Trevor Bauer might be available. I doubt we have the pieces to be a realistic player for him but at this point I’d give up just about anyone to get him.

[zambonir]

I know a lot of people here understandably feel otherwise but the Phillies are almost certainly going to make a big trade for a pitcher. Free agency alone won't cut it (either because they need two or because the guys they want won't come to market or because they still won't give out a long pricey deal). So then the only question is can they do it now or will it be in the off-season (and will they lose out on the controllable guy or guys they like most if they don't do it now).

So Bauer, Boyd, Ray, Stroman (who's not that exciting these days granted), Greinke, a few others - there are still probably more pitchers available than serious buyers, though that will also be because of the high price.

[bkeich]

I am hopeful that the price on Greinke won't be that high in prospects just because of his "difficult" contract. The problem of course is that he has said he will not go to the Phils and it most likely involves going over the Luxury Threshold, which I seriously doubt the Phils will (or should) do. We would need to move one of our tough contracts at the same time, and none of our high paid players can really be moved except Arrieta, which would involve us sending multiple top prospects.

I honestly wonder what Moniak or Williams would bring back. Maybe a 2 year rental? Probably not that good (Moniak should have more value)

Last year Klentak creatively picked up a solid hitting catcher, OF and SS (although the OF and SS were defensive liabilities) without giving up any real prospects. Maybe he can find a few pitchers in the same method, but that does seem harder.

[schooldoc]

If the Phillies thought Cashner was a "makeup" concern, they're probably not gonna like Bauer either. He's quite the free spirit.

[andyb]

He is kind of weird like the Phillies' manager though.

[Taudawg]

Personally not a fan of Bauer's off field stuff, however he does appear to have thick skin which would serve him well in Philly. Cleveland likely can't afford him in 2020, and he has suggested he won't ever seek a long term contract from anyone. An odd fella for certain. With Clevenger back, and Kluber back soon, Bauer could help them fill other needs. Cleveland needs MLB ready outfield help now, plus a DH.