July 2019 Phils Trade Deadline Speculation/Rumors

[Austinfan]

Interesting article on Pivetta

You May Wish to Reconsider Nick Pivetta

Or why it wasn't unreasonable to think he had turned the corner last year.

[jimbomill]

Robertson was used very sparingly in the spring

CD, as you know, pitchers have a daily routine, with the role (SP vice RP) dictating what that routine is. They have that type of routine from high school forward. If Robertson wasn't throwing in sprint training games, and he's a seasoned vet, I have no concerns that he wasn't ready.

[California_Dreamin]

bkox....I have never once uttered the word "overuse" I have continually used the word "misuse." I am a believer that one bad outing shouldn't have you on the Lehigh Express and that if a reliever is thought highly enough to get to the majors he should get to enjoy more than, oh, one post game table spread before being shipped out again.

We are mostly rabid Phillie phans on this site and I challenge even the most knowledgeable phan here to name the Phillies 8 relievers on a daily basis without checking a roster scorecard. It can't be done. There was a very catchy song sung by Danny Kaye back in the 1962 Dodger/Giants rivalry season with a verse that mentions several player names and their use in a game.

I could probably come up with a similar Phillie verse using, lets see off the top of my head...Rios, Davis, Ramos, Garcia, Anderson, Irvin, Suarez and maybe 3-4 other guys. At one time or another each of these hurlers was extolled by the Phils as potential pieces going forward. Yet almost everyone of them knows that 1 bad outing, much less 2, will likely have them on the Lehigh Express or IR with another arm issue.

This is no way to instill confidence and trust in the team, manager or process. It is self defeating at best and humiliating at worst.

[bkox]

The Phillies have used 25 non position player pitchers this year. The same number as the Braves and just 3 more than the Dodgers

The MLB average is 23.

[Lucky_Beagle]

My understanding it wasn't always just a bad outing that resulted in a pitcher being sent to the minor leagues. It was more a pitcher tossed 2 or 3 innings and wouldn't be available for a day or two so they were going to bring up someone who could be used. Did any of those who were sent down have "good" games before being sent back down?

[California_Dreamin]

Lucky Beagle...I spent about 5 years on this site getting lambasted from guys no longer here because I stressed that the mental aspect of the game was waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more important than people were giving it credit for. In my mind, this attitude that "well, he can't pitch for a couple of days so lets send him down" is short sighted and foolish and fails to take into account the human psyche of players, especially young ones.

I doubt seriously that when an Irvin, Rios, Davis or Suarez are given the pink slip to the Lehigh Express they are able to conclusively believe its because they can't pitch for a couple of days, especially if this comes from Kapler, I a guy I am convinced many of the players privately loathe. It drains their confidence, makes every appearance even bigger than it should be, and is counter productive to the long term benefits of the player.

Look, either our system realllly over estimates the talent of these guys or these guys are being misused because most of them have been called more than once key future pieces of the team. Right now, none of them are and I suspect most of them wish they could simply move on to another organization.

One thing I am quite sure of...Philadelphia is NOT a destination that a hurler with a choice will consider.

[David_Criss]

I have said this twice before and feel it is well worth repeating. I believe this Phillie team has almost no respect for Kapler and his weird ways, his almost robotic daily answers to what ails the team, and most of all, his misuse of the pitching staff. I believe when the dust finally settles and Kapler is either gone or on life support, more than one of the pitchers is going to publicly unload on Kapler and his strange methods.

And it isn't just the pitching staff. Remember last year? Hererra leads off three years in a row and sits opening day and then remarks something to the effect of the manager's computer told him who to hit where.....Hoskins is a rookie 1B and is thrusted into the everyday LF role...Kingery is a rookie 2B made to be the everyday SS. Williams was the three-hole hitter last year and is now at AAA. Hererra's batting average has tumbled under Kapler. Altherr was the opening day CFer....

[zambonir]

Robertson set his own spring training routine.

Nobody here actually has a problem with Kapler (or Young). It's all Klentak. That's how analytics-based front offices and field managers work. Anyone really think if Klentak made Dusty Wathan the manager (or even hired Showalter) he wouldn't be expected to act on the same data? Whoever the next hitting coach is will be doing the same thing the new minor league/Driveline guy is doing.

Now, maybe Klentak won't be the GM in two years. Obviously he ain't Theo or Andrew Friedman. Or Luhnow. Or even Stearns.

[bkox]

then remarks something to the effect of the manager's computer told him who to hit where.

That was actually Nick Williams quote

[flyers19rw]

Reportedly Kapler went off in the pre game media chat. Along the lines that, “I’m not ******* Dallas Green and never will be.”
Not a good look.

[phillychuck]

I think what we're seeing is the strategy you pushed for and the phillies employed doesn't work. They tried a bunch of young arms instead of adding veterans and this is the net result. A team with an ace and a bunch of AAAA arms behind him.

I agree, but it's not that the strategy doesn't ever work, it's that it didn't work for the Phils this time. It was a feasible choice, they went in that direction, and they were wrong. I think this is what the "organizations win championships" phrase means. We made a lot of bad choices in overall strategy, drafting, and professional player acquisition that have led to the current malaise. At some point somebody has to pay the price for those decisions...who picked Hunter, Nicasio, Neshek part 2, and Robertson? How can you be so wrong all the time if it doesn't reflect an organizational defect? Who decided not to overpay for Corbin? That seems like a mistake at this point. Who decided not to sign Keuchel? Who is coaching the hitters in a way that seems like their production is uniformly down? Who hired those coaches? Who thought Velasquez, Pivetta, and Eflin were more than pitchers who should be competing to be #5 starters? Etc.

[EDmuch]

I think the person who should be on the spot is Klentak. I mean, I am not fond of Kapler. But most of what appears to ail this team seems to arise from the personnel choices made at the GM level. Not really enthused about what this GM will come up with at the deadline.

[bkeich]

The Phils are in a horrible spot here. If they "sell" they will get horrible PR about selling when they were in (or near) a playoff spot, but it is incredibly obvious that this team (as currently setup) has no chance of holding on to a playoff spot. I would be surprised is the team, as currently constructed could win 75 games. This is really a .400 - .450 team who had a hot start and is now just slowly giving those games back.

They could try and acquire some help, which in theory would cost us prospects (although hopefully not good ones). That is sorta like putting a fresh coat of paint on the boat after you have hit the iceberg.

I think the only real answer here is for Klentak to do what he did last year. Acquire marginal soon to be FA's for non-prospects. It probably wont save us, but instead just make the ship sink slower. It would be nice if we could sell our older players for more prospects, but since almost all of them are already on the IL and many out for the season, there is nothing to sell.

Hopefully this time Kapler will not turn the team over to our marginal prospects, as he did last year. They are being brought in to help, not to play every inning at the expense of the guys we want to keep.

[EDmuch]

The only game they have won since the All Star break was won by Franco's home run.

[andyb]

Even when he is hitting though he is not a plus player because of defense. Let him be a PH off the bench.

[Austinfan]

Corbin was a mistake ONLY if you thought this team was competitive, which I didn't, and said Harper wouldn't be enough. Cutch, Realmuto and Segura helped, but if the pitchers didn't step up, they weren't going anywhere.

Corbin might be worth 2 wins over what we have, that ain't a needle pusher.
The 2 wins we've lost to Arrieta's bone spur.
And we'll see if he's still effective in September, he's not exactly a workhorse.

[andyb]

Corbin might be worth 2 wins over what we have, that ain't a needle pusher.

He is on pace to be a 5-6 WAR pitcher this year. Pivetta (0.1 so far) and VV (0.4 so far) are not on a pace for 1 WAR. So one could say he would make us 4-5 wins better this year. That would put us in the wild card.

And why should we expect any one player to be a "needle pusher". If the expectation is you add 5-10 wins with every free agent acquisition or they are not worth doing then you basically expect to not make any moves.

Corbin would have been a good signing. He probably would have put us in the playoffs. And some of the moves we should not have made (like the Segura trade) might have added more. Have you seen how good Santana has been this year? It is not just Crawford vs Segura which is close to a wash.

[Austinfan]

Let's see how Corbin finishes the season, he's on a career pace in IP, so extrapolating from little more than half a season is dangerous. He's clearly not as effective as last season, which was his "outlier" year.

If you're going to pay a pitcher $26M a year from age 31-35, he'd better be the missing piece to put you over the top, because he's likely to be a drag on the team down the road.

Of course, the Phillies could have signed Happ, who's having a similar season to Eflin and Pivetta.
They did sign Arrieta, and I think you were pushing to give Darvish a 6 year deal, how's that working out for the Cubbies?

Point is you take the right risks at the right time, not merely to maybe limp into the playoffs.

[andyb]

Corbin is having the exact same year as last year. Slightly higher HR rate but one could say that about every pitcher in MLB. WAR rate is slightly better. And he is 29 still, so the contract is his age 29-34 years, not 35.

Any contract for 5 or 6 years is a risk. We know that. We get that. But we also know that he is very good now. He has been better than Nola this year. I guess Nola is washed up too as last year was his "outlier" year.

Yes I did want Darvish over Arrieta. I would also guess there is at least a 50-50 chance he'll end up being the better signing. Have you seen his last 6-8 starts? He is missing bats and starting to dominate. Health is a risk with any older pitcher, but it is not like our younger pitchers have been effective either. Sometimes you need to use the money you have and not use your prospects like Crawford to trade for solutions that are not much better than what you already have.

[BostonRoss]

It seems to me that the Segura trade is only a slight loss for this year, and only because Santana had an unpredictable bounce back (and he might not have had that if he stayed in Philly). The combined WAR for Crawford and Santana is 4.4. Segura's stands at 1.4. But the Philies likely wouldn't have obtained McCutchen and Bruce (2.6 combined WAR) if they had kept Santana. Plus they benefited defensively by moving Hoskins back to 1B. So even with some regression from Segura and Santana's improbable improvement, it's not a big loss.