July 2, 2017 International Signing Period

Philsmania 2017-12-03 18:58:40 UTC #544

I would love to get Ohtani but have a hard time believing he's the next Babe Ruth.

zambonir 2017-12-03 19:07:03 UTC #545

The two-way thing is what makes him marketable, but since he will only cost a team, essentially, $8-10 million a year AAV for the next three years (posting fee plus bonus plus normal salary), he really only has to be a good #4 starter to be worth getting. If he pitches better than that and/or he can also hit, he's a steal, and will still be a steal in arbitration or with a long-term deal.

It's a huge boon for any kind of team. A low-budget team saves money and a high-budget team saves luxury tax concerns.

fish 2017-12-03 19:18:16 UTC #546

The easy velocity and power are undeniable- but his fastball command and holes in his swing suggest it may take him some time to grow into his talent. Watching his hitting highlights everything he clobbered was a mistake pitch - hard to say how does against good pitching.

andyb 2017-12-03 19:44:38 UTC #547

I think if you sign Ohtani you should expect that he is getting a 5 year/$100 million deal after his first season as long as he is healthy. These deals already have precedent. Lindor turned down such a deal before 2017 and MLB would have been fine with that. While Lindor had another partial year of play at that time, Ohtani's Japanese play sort of counts in the justification to MLB. I think any team signing Ohtani will have a handshake agreement to consider this after the first year. Gray area on MLB rules but MLB wants Ohtani in MLB as much as anyone so they will clearly look the other way.

If Ohtani gets hurt or is lousy of course the only commitment will be below $10 million and they will not have to offer an extension. But the same would be true with a guy like Lindor too.

zambonir 2017-12-03 22:07:17 UTC #548

I don't think so. The handshake agreement is probably against the rules and something all the writers say MLB will scrutinize. I think the Lindor comparison is correct, but Lindor has played three seasons, and averaged 5+ WAR (even with a shorter rookie year). I think Ohtani will also have to play three seasons - but at least two - before he gets his extension, just to make it look kosher.

Certainly a handshake agreement could still factor all of that in. Though it would obviously still look bad, if, say, he was only a three WAR players and the Yankees still extended him for three-years $100 million after 2020. And if that would be allowed, then sure, they may as well just let him sign the deal you propose next year.

Squire 2017-12-03 23:44:32 UTC #549

Right now they are saying that Yankees, Redsox and Twins have been told they are OUT and the Mariners and Giants are IN on Ohtani. Twins and Yankees will now use their pools to sign all the remaining Braves guys I guess.

andyb 2017-12-04 00:32:31 UTC #550

Lindor was offered his deal before 2017. After playing like 1.75 seasons. Others like Singleton of course were offered deals before they even played. Ohtani can and most likely get an extension after his first season if he plays well. Maybe even during his first season. It is well within the rules to do so. Any handshake agreement without money is probably fine. It would not be enforceable and likely would be within the rules unless it were offered when Ohtani was hurt or playing poorly.

This will happen and MLB will let it happen. It is very different from offering extra money to international prospects to circumvent the rules. This is offering money within the rules. It is perfectly reasonable to say to a player that you would offer an extension if they play well.

andyb 2017-12-04 00:35:21 UTC #551

List supposedly heavy on West Coast teams. Mets, Blue Jays, Blue Jays, Pirates, Brewers, Dbacks all out too.

nycphils 2017-12-04 02:15:45 UTC #552

Mariners, Giants, Padres, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs considered still in it

zambonir 2017-12-04 03:11:42 UTC #553

I'm real curious whether the lack of any chatter/coverage about this is due to A) how stretched thin media resources are these day B) that it's all about the Eagles and the Sixers right now (those two things also related) or C) how little info the Phillies allow to leak out.

andyb 2017-12-04 04:30:14 UTC #554

One source now saying the Cubs and the Rangers are the only non-West Coast teams in it. So as expected that would not include the Phillies.

Austinfan 2017-12-04 04:47:51 UTC #555

Not much of a suprise, I'm sure Klentak has proceeded on the basis he never had a shot.

zambonir 2017-12-04 05:55:22 UTC #556

One thing I read said 27 teams sent the requested memo, we don't even know for sure if the Phillies were one of those.

andyb 2017-12-04 11:23:42 UTC #557

I guess time to move on - tomorrow is the first day to sign Braves prospects. We still should be looking for ways to add allocations.

nycphils 2017-12-04 14:18:43 UTC #558

Ohtani'squick decisionmaking should make it easier to trade for allocations

Philsmania 2017-12-04 15:53:18 UTC #559

Do the Mariners have anything that might interest us if we can trade them any allocations which might put them over the top with Ohtani? Hey, gotta be opportunistic!

baseballoldie 2017-12-04 23:25:42 UTC #560

Really thought the Yankees would have been the team Ohtani selected given the endorsement opportunities being in NY may have afforded him but like that he nixed the Yankees!

julio 2017-12-04 23:36:07 UTC #561

He nixed mostly everything but the West Coast. Plus Rangers and Cubs... but given he included ALL the West Coast clubs, it looks like that's his real preference. Given where he's from, and the large Asian populations (and receptiveness to same) in those West Coast cities, can't say I blame him.

Austinfan 2017-12-04 23:40:19 UTC #562

Ahem, I remember some poster who suggested top Japanese players tend to look at a limited group of teams (sprains arm patting himself on the back).
Narrowing down the field will make it easier to trade for some allocations, if those teams holding allocations don't think they're going to bid for Brave prospects hitting the market.
But that may be a very limited group of teams, who then bargain hard for the right to their allocations.

andyb 2017-12-05 00:39:52 UTC #563

But this is not really true at all. Ohtani's priorities seem to be to play on the West Coast. Most recent Japanese players have signed for money.

This really has nothing to do with the value of allocations also. Ohtani is the rare player who is less interested in money and the Braves prospects can be signed with 2018 money. Allocations can continue to be traded for and the cost is likely very small as most of the deals have been so far. The price of allocations was always very dependent on the number of teams in the penalty who could not use them anyway (as ahem others have pointed out).