July 2, 2017 International Signing Period

[andyb]

If the difference between $1M players and $3M players isn't that great, sign 6 or 7 $1M players rather than 2 "names."

Get the best talent. That does not mean get in every bidding war, but if you are not going for the top 10 guys you probably don't end up with many stars.

Every post of yours comes down to the logical conclusion that you don't want to spend money on anything. Nobody has suggested not trying to find the Altuves and Sixtos. Except you I guess. You seem to have something against the Phillies spending $8 million internationally every year. The ordering of bonus in LA makes just as much sense as the ordering of bonuses in the draft. That you don't see that is amazing.

[Austinfan]

I didn't say not to spend, I said unless there's a clear slam dunk player, spread it around in LA where projecting 16 year olds is so much harder than 18/21 year olds in the amateur draft.
If identifying the best talent is so uncertain in that environment, then "safety in numbers."

[allentown]

We've already spread money around LA. Those guys are 'in the bank'. Now, in addition to them we have a chance to add an additional heralded player.

[Austinfan]

And I'm in favor of garnering some of the Braves' forfeited players because they're going to bargains relative to 2018-19 'names', they're a year older, which improves player evaluation, and there is less potential money chasing them, so they should come at lower cost per expected WAR.

[nycphils]

If I were the Phillies I'd look at Gutierrez, Juan Contreras and Jihwan Bae. I'd not waste my $ on Maitan.

[allentown]

I like Gutierrez. None of our catching prospects have shown enough of a fully-developed offense/defense package to convince me they can start with us for a half dozen or more years, so great to add another plus catching prospect. I'm still in on Maitan as potentially our 3B of the future and think he can be had for not much over $1 million and almost certainly under $1.5 million. Contreras doesn't interest me. If we can't sign Maitan, then I want Pena as a 3B prospect. If Bae falls to us, fine, but he is not a guy I would aggressively chase, compared to the 3 I mention above -- we do well developing LA talent, but haven't done so with an Asian talent, and Bae is more of a blank slate than some of the other guys. While we only have DSL stats on Pena, and he didn't have all that good a BA, he played at 16 and I'm impressed with how much he walked and how seldom he struck out -- not freakishly low Ks, but I'll go with 1 in 6 PA, especially for this young a kid. He's already 6'-2" so room to fill out and not your typical small LA middle IF type.

[andyb]

didn't say not to spend, I said unless there's a clear slam dunk player, spread it around in LA where projecting 16 year olds is so much harder than 18/21 year olds in the amateur draft.
If identifying the best talent is so uncertain in that environment, then "safety in numbers."

But you kind of do since you are against any realistic way to spend. You need "slam dunks". They just don't exist in real life. I am a fan of buying lots of mid-level prospects too. But one can still do that and also spend for the top 5-10. If you are happy with our current 2017 class then you are essentially saying they should not trade for $2.0-$2.5 million in additional allocations. There are no slam dunks. Everything has risk. But there is also scarcity in top talents. There are good reasons why Miguel Cabrera set international bonus records. The reason is talent.

[andyb]

I like Gutierrez. None of our catching prospects have shown enough of a fully-developed offense/defense package to convince me they can start with us for a half dozen or more years, so great to add another plus catching prospect.

I am actually not a fan of signing him. The internet take on him was that he got a large bonus because he already was well-developed physically which is sometimes hard to tell with a 15 year old catcher where you just don't know if they can handle the position. So he was seen as safer, but also now they see his offense as fringly and his athleticism as limited. Sounds a lot like Grullon to me. A prospect but not a $3 million one.

Del Rosario is the guy I want. Athletic pitcher already sitting in the low to mid 90s. Athleticism is key (like with Sixto) in that those pitchers are the ones where you can project command since they can repeat their delivery so well.

[allentown]

A prospect but not a $3 million one

I agree and I may be proven very wrong on this, but I think he can be signed for less than $1.5 million.

[California_Dreamin]

I want Maitan and here is why...it sends a message that the Phils are ready to compete for the best talent. Even if Maitan fails to make it, I think the message will speak loud and clear and I want that message sent.

While we need not debate anymore the pros and cons of the Oswalt, Lee and Pence acquisitions, we can all agree that the messages were clear then...the Phils were going to compete for top talent.

Now Maitan may not end up being the best of the Brave free agents, but right now he is and I want the Phils going for him. Their natural tendency has been to settle for one of the lesser guys, and I would like that to change.

They can easily sell Maitan on his future as a 3rd baseman on a team that needs one, while we all want Machado, most would agree its a long shot. Maitan costs maybe 2-3 million, Machado 400 million. I think they should go hard for Maitan.

[zambonir]

It only sends that message to wonky fans like us though. The average Eskin listener or the average fan who stopped going to the games over the last few seasons, they don't care about international prospects. They probably don't even know who Jhailyn Ortiz is. Maitan doesn't get you the back page of the Daily News like a trade or free agent will.

[LoneStarPhan]

I hope they are aggressively looking at the entire list and that they will do what they can to sign several of them. They have to see what the market will be and what money they have available along with their evaluation of each of the players available. From there, I expect they will make some competitive offers.

There are a number of fans who do not follow the minors or the prospects at all. For them, it doesn't matter who they sign. They will only look at how the ML team is doing. Frankly, to get CBP sold out again night after night will require a winning team that is going to the post season on a regular basis. Of course, we know that getting to that point likely happens because of a good farm system and staying at that level of competitiveness requires a steady flow of talent into the organization.

[zambonir]

I agree it makes a statement, it's just not a Cliff Lee type statement.

I'll be curious to see what kind of $ these guys get. It's not a truly free market since some teams can't bid at all and all teams are limited, but the year-straddling complicates that. I wish I could say I see the Phillies actually making 3-4 allocation trades, but I doubt it.

[tom81]

The average Eskin listener or the average fan who stopped going to the games over the last few seasons, they don't care about international prospects.

The average fan whould notice if we signed Ohtani, as there has been that much media hype about him. No other international signing would really register. Trading for Stanton would also register with the average fan as would signing Arrieta or Darvish. Any other FA signing I don’t think moves the needle for the average fan or trading for lesser talent. That’s not to say other moves are not good ones for the organization just that the average fan has tuned out baseball after years of a poor product.

[zambonir]

Of course. Ohtani is a mature player who is going to be on the team this year and will cost $20 million+

Sticking it to the Braves and possibly advancing the system ahead of theirs is good enough for me but if it's another guy (or better yet two other guys) instead of Maitain that is okay too.

[allentown]

I don't think the average Eskin listener is a Phillies fan at all. They seem to skew heavily to the other Philly teams and did so even during the past golden age.

[fish]

The shine is off Maitan for me too- but with all the Cabrera comps thrown at him before signing, it’s also worth noting that his first pro season at age 17 was pretty similar to Cabrera’s age 17 season. Of course, I have no idea if opinions about Cabrera changed after how he played his first season.

[zambonir]

OT but I still remember being in the men's room of the Holiday Inn after Hamels' start against the Brewers in '08, and the guy next to me said, "well, that makes up for the Eagles game" (I think they lost to the Bears a day or two before). I believe the Eagles also drew more viewers than Game 5 of that NLDS.

But, that's the benchmark, the Phillies did dominate pretty firmly from '09-'11. We should be so lucky as to see all four times being good enough to fight it out, obviously the Eagles will always win that if all else is equal, and the Sixers might too.

[andyb]

Orioles make their 8th trade of international allocations. $500K this time to the Rockies for a 26-year-old minor league reliever non prospect (not good enough to be selected in the upcoming rule 5 for instance).

Orioles To Acquire Konner Wade From Rockies For International Bonus Money

The Phillies need to step up their game and acquire additional allocations ASAP. If that is what they end up doing for Appel and Joseph and other marginal major league pieces so be it. I know the urgency is lessened with the Braves prospects since they can use 2018 money, but that would be the wrong strategy. They should try to max out both their 2017 and 2018 money.

[gmwannabe]

are the phillies "frittering" away this opportunity??
gm