July 2, 2017 International Signing Period

[julio]

I assume that the you can't combine pools for a single player but that you could sign two players fitting one into the remaining monies in the current year and allocating the second player to the future year.

You definitely cannot combine dollars from both pools for a single player. Mayo's article/tweets don't speak to the question about whether a club could work with both pools, signing different players out of each pool - so I would say you're making a reasonable assumption, pending any future contradictory information!

[andyb]

It seems we already have deals with 2 pitchers for next 7/2/2018 so I'm not sure how much of next year's allocation is "spoken for"

But remember we can always trade for more allocations ($3.5 million plus) next year and we would not have to do those trades until next July.

Still would prefer to trade for more allocations this year, but there are options to do so in both years' pools. We should be spending $8 million plus a year internationally if we want to max out the talent added.

[andyb]

Fangraphs on the various prospects. Not too encouraging on Maitan here. The two to go for to me look like Del Rosario and Pena. Del Rosario would fit in nicely with our progression of athletic Dominican pitchers.

The Braves’ Punishment Is In and It’s Harsh | FanGraphs Baseball

[tom81]

It's not clear from the Passan article how long the bidding period for Ohtani (which commences December 5) will run - the article indicates that the MLBPA proposed a month-long period

Joel Sherman thinks it ends in 21 days. "Under the provisions for just this offseason, he would have just 21 days to make a choice, which means a signing no later than Dec. 21-23"

The chase for Shohei Ohtani is real now

I'm curious what the ramifications for signing a future Ohtani, someone under 25. The future payouts to Japanese teams is based upon players signing Major League contracts and I believe the younger players sign a Minor League contract.

[zambonir]

Can the Twins actually sign Shohei Ohtani?

The Twins have the third-most $ after NY and Texas, who are probably the frontrunners anyway (along with LA and Seattle if you buy into conventional wisdom). But I still don't understand why people assume Ohtani has to have the biggest bonus when the dollars are so small, unless the understanding is that MLB would heavily scrutinize a team lowballing (like, for instance, if he took $1.5 million instead of $3 million from the Yankees the optics would be bad, in terms of implying that they'll make it up to him down the line, and also because they could then use the rest of that money on a another player).

Also, is it actually against league rules for his agents to negotiate endorsement deals based on where he plays? Because that seems like fairly easy information to acquire. A branding/marketing/ad agency or corporation (be it US sporting goods or Japanese whatever) would pretty much tell you what you're worth in which uniform.

[Austinfan]

Looking at the Braves prospects and their signing bonuses just reinforces how much more of a crapshoot LA signings are relative to the draft.
In just one year a couple high price prospects have been significantly downgraded at age 17.

[andyb]

Looking at the Braves prospects and their signing bonuses just reinforces how much more of a crapshoot LA signings are relative to the draft.
In just one year a couple high price prospects have been significantly downgraded at age 17.

So? All draft bonuses are crapshoots too. The range of outcomes is going to be more variable with 16 year olds rather than 18 year olds.

You keep throwing out this point as if to imply that international bonuses are not a good value. Nothing could be further from the truth. A team probably gets as much future WAR out of $5 million of international spending as more than $50 million of major league payroll and free agent spending.

You just keep making a point that is not really in dispute. And there is no goal behind the point other than its seeming repetition. Under the current system the Phillies should strive to spend $8 million plus internationally each year, especially when the price of trading for international allocations is relatively low because teams are in the penalty.

[California_Dreamin]

Thank you andyb, you took the words right out of my mouth. It positively drives me crazy when I see this attitude of "well, why spend when most of them won't make it anyhow?" This reeks to me of the Bill Giles era and that was the worst period in all my years as a Phillie phan, I can't stand this attitude.

You simply have to spend money to make money and here is an opportunity to not only help the Phillies but hurt a division opponent. What's not to like about those scenarios? And believe me, if the Phils get Maitan, I can see at least a chance where the Phils immediately become a Top 5 minor league system, even with all the promotions. Again, whats not to like?

If there is one area the Phils have consistently done well at, its the international market, under Uncle Sal. Now we have a potential gift horse looking us squarely in the face.

Go for it!

[allentown]

Maitan is not the only guy here who could be a future MLB starting 3B. I think it important the Phillies sign one of them, preferably Maitan, but I'll take the more reasonable either/or approach. It's a chance to bolster the farm with someone who doesn't need to be on the 40-man for a while. Just sitting here, we are ahead today, because the Braves' #1-ranked farm is no longer #1, and they were our strongest NL East rival going forward. I've thought for the past couple years that our minor league pipeline was better than any of our other rivals. So.... this can give us a double step forward if we can sign one of these guys. It would be nice to turn Joseph into some additional allocation... or Perkins or, if push comes to shove, Galvis or Hernandez.

[allentown]

And we can be surer of our evaluation of these kids than of the typical LA signee, since they have some time in pro ball. I believe the revised scouting reports that Maitan should now be considered a 3B rather than a SS. That's fine, we need a 3B and we don't need a SS. We also likely know he isn't worth $3 million to us. That also is fine, we don't have $3 million to spend and likely neither does anyone else. He has Appy league stats and I suspect our scouts have watched him play. His bonus will reflect his current value, not what the Braves signed him for. I'm certainly willing to bet more than $ 1 million on him.

Everyone's value can drop. What was Buchholtz actually worth to us? Post-extension Howard. Injury- and age-related falloff and failure to develop or to maintain a particular physique happen to a lot of guys. What is Moniak's value today?

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...yes, this a golden opportunity, one that the team is unlikely to have again soon. There are 4-5 of these guys I would be happy with, with one thought. I want a position player, not another pitcher. Phils seem to have lots of young pitching prospects and a million middle infield prospects but really could use a 3rd baseman or outfielder.

Maitan seems almost like a dream scenario come true, a guy who gives the team cover if A] Franco doesn't get better, B] Machado doesn't sign or C] Machado signs but gets an out after 4/5 years. Maitan will still be only 21-22 and ready to join a potential infield of Hoskins, Kingery and Crawford.

My gosh, this is almost too good to be true.

[Squire]

Now Zolecki with an article that the Phillies probably don't have enough pool money left to sign Maitan ignoring (1) they could trade for more; or (2) use next year's pool. I miss Zolecki being a reporter rather than working in Phillies PR

[Austinfan]

My point is not to spend in LA, rather, to spend wisely.
Getting into bidding wars in LA, unless it's one of the few "sure things" that are available each year, is counterproductive.
The difference between most LA players, when you take into account variance of performance, counsels against overspending for the "hot" names, and spreading your money around.
Now the Brave prospects are a special opportunity b/c you have more information and fewer bidders, so you can get better value than chasing 2018-19 'names'.

[zambonir]

The article mentions that the Phillies have already traded for slot money. He can only report the facts. Speculating about trades they may or may not be able to make is for the columnists and rumor guys, not a beat writer.

But more importantly, does anyone really think the Phillies can get him or the catcher if they are determined to match their original bonuses? Should they spend $3 million, even with trades and the ability to straddle years? The fact that these players have already been paid once won't necessarily help as much as we'd like to think. The free market is the free market.

[Squire]

1. Zolecki could pretty easily point out that the Phillies could trade for additional allocaiton. Mentioning the possibility really wasn't too much to ask in my opinion. But he won't because his marching orders were to lower expectations.

2. I guess I'm the only one who thinks that the original bonuses are not particularly relevant. I mean current bonuses will be a factor of who's got money left. But there are more teams under the penalty in both of the next two years too so the market dynamics are really skewed here.

[teabag259]

Is Maitan considered a prospect in the same class as Machado and Correa were out of high school?

[zambonir]

Zolecki could pretty easily point out that the Phillies could trade for additional allocaiton. Mentioning the possibility really wasn't too much to ask in my opinion. But he won't because his marching orders were to lower expectations.

I just don't really believe that, while it's always good to be skeptical of the connection, the separation between MLB Advanced media and the Phillies is real, and certainly nobody gets "marching orders."

I agree someone should call Klentak up and ask him if they are trying to trade for more allocations but he probably wouldn't say anything useful, and it's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

[andyb]

My point is not to spend in LA, rather, to spend wisely.
Getting into bidding wars in LA, unless it's one of the few "sure things" that are available each year, is counterproductive.
The difference between most LA players, when you take into account variance of performance, counsels against overspending for the "hot" names, and spreading your money around.
Now the Brave prospects are a special opportunity b/c you have more information and fewer bidders, so you can get better value than chasing 2018-19 'names'.

It is not like anybody here is advocating to spend unwisely. Your point just does not hold much water. The higher priced guys have a higher chance of success and of being stars. They are probably not as efficient per dollar but the free agent market does not work that way either.

I advocate spending $8 million a year. The only way to do that is to bid on top talent. Are you advocating spending less? That would get you less talent. And the money you save would not get you much other talent.

The Braves prospects provide a second chance for the Phillies to maximize the $8 million they are allowed to spend in the 2017-2018 period. They are almost certainly not going to get Ohtani or the new Cuban prospect. So the choice is in not spending the money or going after the Braves prospects. The latter is the strategy to add more talent to the team.

[andyb]

Is Maitan considered a prospect in the same class as Machado and Correa were out of high school?

Yes, at the time he was signed. He was reported to have been the best 16-year-old hitting prospect since Sano (in 2009 I think) and the best Venezuelan hitting prospect since Miguel Cabrera almost 20 years ago. Now he is not seen quite so highly, but as a 15-16 year old he was. Scouts thought he had a chance to stay at SS and that is no longer the case. Same with Cabrera of course and defensive projection has not been a problem with him.

To me he is more of a $2 million guy than a $4 million guy these days. But $2 million is still among the best hitting prospects in any year and the equivalent of getting an extra number one choice in the regular draft. He would be a significant signing if it happened.

[Austinfan]

If the difference between $1M players and $3M players isn't that great, sign 6 or 7 $1M players rather than 2 "names."
Since you're buying lottery tickets, and other than the 1-2 players each year who are a tier above, go for the tickets with the highest expected value.
Altuve is as good as any LA signing at any price, and Sixto is as good as any LA pitching prospect the last five years or so.
Not that I'm saying stick to $10K players (for one thing they don't count against your allocation), but that the variance is so large go with safety in numbers.
Look at past lists of LA players, outside of the very top prospects, the odds of success don't seem to differ much between #3 and #30 every year.
Whereas the ordering in the amateur draft is a closer reflection of relative probability of success.