January 15, 2025 International Signing Period

[Matt_Winkelman]

I didn’t do a deep dive, but looking at pipeline’s top international list from 2023, the notable prospects are Sebastian Walcott, Ethan Salas, Felnin Celesten, Alfredo Duno, and Luis Morales all of who ranked above Caba. Of those, using Pipeline’s top 100 only Salas ($5.6M), Walcott ($3.2M), and Celesten ($4.6M) ranked above Caba.

It seems pretty clear Caba got paid at the caliber player he is. He is also near universally viewed as a better prospect than Crawford. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked higher, and he would have been ahead of Crawford on my own list. I don’t want to say the Phillies are good at this or there aren’t flaws, but you are tilting at windmills with a lot of your analysis on this, imaging that things exist (lower bonuses for top ranked players or good 16 year old pitching prospects) that just have no evidence that they exist.

[zambonir]

I feel like it all stems from the Phillies either being unwilling or unable to work with the buscones who had the best players. That left them overpaying for guys who might not have otherwise been gettable (no different than, say, Jefferies or Thome back in the day) or for that one guy their entire class turned on. But it really is a crapshoot. It like everything else, all three approaches (big $, six-figure guys, cheap guys) are necessary and produce fruit.

[Austinfan]

I should have been more specific, I was thinking of the SS Crawford we traded. Apples to apples.
Simply that Crawford was a top fielder with hitting questions, but a higher floor than Caba because he was older when drafted.
If you could draft Caba after last season (at 18, similar to HS seniors) would he go at a spot similar to his bonus?
And if so, he was then overpaid, b/c you should discount for paying that money at 16.

The point is that LA players are inherently more risky and the bonuses should reflect that, but I think they're driven up by bidding wars - but since paying one player excess money reduces what you can pay to the rest, there is a serious opportunity cost to overpays.

It's the basic Moneyball issue, given a LA "salary cap," what's the most efficient way to allocate bonuses.

[andyb]

It seems pretty clear Caba got paid at the caliber player he is.

I just think it is less clear. Your analysis considers his success the last 2 years and not his tools when signed. Take our Luis Garcia for example. Another severe overpay IMO and that was an opinion formed when he was signed and not in hindsight today. He led the GCL in hitting at age 17 when Caba was still in the DSL. He was ranked near the bottom of most top 100 lists after that season. I can't find your list but you had Garcia 4th in the midseason rankings that year after he struggled at Lakewood in the first half of 2019.

But in January of 2019 you would probably have said that the $2.5 million bonus he got was appropriate. Now of course in hindsight it was not. Caba has a more substantial carrying tool with his defense, but we really had less to go on about his offense especially when he was signed. The big bonus kids in his class generally had louder tools than Caba did.

The $3 million bonus may have been appropriate in the market, though that market is trending towards smaller bonuses these days with the pool limits. I just think it is a fair question to ask when considered with the knowledge teams had about him when he was signed and not today.

[Squire]

Yankees, Mets and Giants have all been informed that they are "out" on Roki Sasaki.

[andyb]

Really feels like Dodgers vs Padres and I would bet on the Dodgers because of endorsement opportunities.

[Squire]

Rangers also out.

[fish]

Padres attached to 4 top 100 guys in the signing class to the Dodgers 1, so it would potentially be more beneficial to the Phils if the Padres get Sasaki to free up their class. The Dodgers VZ catcher has an intriguing profile though should he become available.

[UnsaltySailor]

Eric Longenhagen, Fangraphs writer was just a guest on MLB Radio Power Alley (11-12pm hour) - He has heard rumors the LA Dodgers are offering top 100 (back end) prospects and high round 2024 draftees in trade for 250K international bonus money. He did not mention sources.

[andyb]

I would trade up to a million in allocations for a couple of top 100 back end prospects. Even if they were relatively far away. We are heading into a lean prospect year also with loss of international allocations and a top pick that probably will be in the 30s in the regular draft. Might as well add some high ceiling 19 and 20 year olds.

[phillychuck]

We have allocation dollars to trade. Let's get those Dodger assets!

[Squire]

I'm ahead of my time.

[andyb]

MLB Number 50 prospect Teilon Serrano no longer headed to the Dodgers:

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2025/international/teilon-serrano-829080

[bigegypt0417]

So the only two prospects in the dodgers org that fit are Jackson Ferris and Alex Freeland.

Both of those guys are solid but have their warts...i'd still trade it if it's not going to be used.

[fish]

Eric Longenhagen, Fangraphs writer was just a guest on MLB Radio Power Alley (11-12pm hour) - He has heard rumors the LA Dodgers are offering top 100 (back end) prospects and high round 2024 draftees in trade for 250K international bonus money. He did not mention sources.

I’m not saying he didn’t say it because I can’t find a transcript, but I suspect the quote was more likely back end of their top 10 system prospects for pool space. There is a reason top 100 prospects carry such high trade capital- the value for even back ends guys is many milllions, and tens of millions for the top end of the top 100.

Last year the rangers traded a well regarded 11th round pick for space, otherwise it’s typically bench players and middling relievers that get trade for pick compensation. that’s the kind of deals to expect.

[zambonir]

It sounds like the league is united in trying to squeeze the winning team for as much as they can but yeah it's hard to imagine the return would be that high for just one slot. All the maximum allowed slots, maybe?

I still don't really see why he would go sign with Toronto instead of LA just to get $5 million more money or whatever. Unless Canadian Tire and Tim Horton's have already made their endorsement offers (I suppose it's also possible Japanese companies are intrigued by national Canadian marketing).

But otherwise, I would think being on the biggest brand and defending World Series champs has the most value, even if some of the endorsement money is spread around with two teammates. And if not, there's San Diego.

[UnsaltySailor]

Listened to the full replay this evening. MLB Radio replays Power Alley in the evening during offseason. I heard him correctly, Eric almost divulged the name of a Top 100 prospect in Dodger's system being discussed in a $250K swap, before catching himself. He referred to current state of leverage as being out of kilter. when it comes to Sasaki. Eric and Duquette went on to discuss the teams with the most money not committed to top international prospects. Phillies were mentioned as a team that on the surface appear to have money, and many known commitments are to lower level prospects that would be much easier to walk away from.

[Squire]

Signing window opens at 11AM FYI

[fish]

BA adds:
6-foot-2 righthander Geremi Viloria is one of the better pitchers in Venezuela for 2025. He has been up to 93 mph and shown feel for a slider. Viloria and Venezuelan outfielder Daibert Cruceta both have breakout potential. Cruceta will need to add more strength to his skinny frame, but he has promising hitting traits and uses his hands well at the plate to make frequent contact and perform well in games. Leonardo Carpio is a corner outfielder from Venezuela w/righthanded power potential.

[Squire]

They have a tracker up too

2025 MLB International Signings Tracker