Is this guy a Prospect (OT since not Phillies)

[bkeich]

I have a reason to ask this, this player is the son of someone I know and I just was curious about what to think. I will give the information on who it is later, he is not and has never been on the Phils.

Minor league Pitcher:
Drafted in the 5th round in 2016. Son of a former player who had 13 year career in the minors with about 50 games in the majors as a starting pitcher / reliever about evenly split.

Age 20 - 2016 Rookie League, gets rocked in 6 innings (meaningless)
Age 21 - 2017 Low A - Starting P - 44 innings, 0.82 ERA, 7.6K/9, 1.6BB/9
Age 21 - 2017 A - Starting P - 17 innings, just about the same as above
Arm injury, about 1 year rehab
Age 22 - 2018 A - 14 games, 6 starting. 2.77 ERA, 9.0K/9, 3.0BB/9]
Age 22 - 2018 A+ - 9 games, 5 starts, bad stats in 34 innings.
Age 23 - 2019 A+ - Moved to bullpen, 28 games, 43 innings, 3.56 ERA, 9.6K/9, 4.0BB/9

So his arm injury must have persisted through 2019 to a degree, it wiped out half of 2017 and 2018. Seems like a guy who might be ready to move fast, getting old, but he was hurt. He was an All Star this year in the A+ league so I am guessing he did very well in the 1st half and less well in 2nd half, may have gotten hurt again.

Career wise he still has solid numbers (3.48 ERA in 186 innings, 1.315 WHIP, 8.1 K/9) but he is getting old for his league obviously. If he can get to AA next year and maybe even get a shot a AAA seems like he might have a shot.

Our minor league guys, what do you think? Kid still have a shot if he can stay healthy or has his time slipped away probably?

[phillychuck]

If he were a Phil I'd be hopeful of a breakout, but not consider him a prospect yet. He's shown some signs of skill, but nothing that jumps out, and he's been inconsistent. Better odds if he's a lefty. Might be the kind of guy who bounces around in AA/AAA and finally makes it at 26 or 27 in his second or third organization. But might not get there, either.

[allentown]

If he were a Phillies minor leaguer, I'd be hopeful, based upon K-rate, but wary due to rising BB-rate and the injury, which as you say seems to be lingering. In evaluating him as a Phillies prospect, I'd recognize that he is Rule V eligible and I would not choose to add him to the 40-man. His numbers/age/level sound like he won't be drafted, unless his organization fails to protect him on AAA roster. He has one more season with his current organization, then FA, so 2020 is a very big year for him. I don't think age 25-26 is an awful age for a middle reliever to hit the majors. Baseball goes through so many middle relievers, he certainly has a chance to pitch in MLB.

[Austinfan]

Depends on how he gets guys out.

If he's an older pitcher (23 in A+ ball) who nibbles with good secondary stuff but lacks a ML FB, no chance as he gets to higher levels (unless he's a LOOGY, they have nine lives).

If he's got a good FB and a secondary pitch, but is just getting back to 100% after his injury and is working on command, he has a good shot at a bullpen spot down the road. Sometimes it's just a matter of a mechanics fix.

[julio]

His H/9 in 2017 was 5.2. Post-injury, it's about 9.5. BB/9 in 2017 was 1.6. Post-injury, it's nearly 4.0. His WHIP in 2017 was 0.754. Post-injury, it's about 1.5. He's going to have to get those numbers back down, or he won't be successful at higher levels. The strikeouts are still there, but he's not missing bats the same way, and his command is gone.

Without knowing anything about his repertoire... it looks like he's missing a pitch, or else he can no longer command a pitch - and that might have been his out pitch?

[bkeich]

Forgot to answer here.

This guy is Mikey York, a minor leaguer for the Rays. His Mother and I graduated High School together, was just curious.