Hall of Fame Discussion 2022 and Beyond

[zambonir]

But he wasn't on both teams.

[andyb]

Announcement tomorrow. Ortiz at 84.2% in that tracker looks to have a good shot. Bonds (77.2%) and Clemens (76.1%) look like they have a good chance of falling short. Rolen (69.6%) looks also to fall short. Schilling (60.9%) probably never had a chance after his statements last year. Rollins (10.9%) should stay on the ballot. Howard (1.6%) likely does not.

[bkox]

David Ortiz is only player elected by @officialBBWAA into HOF this year. #Phillies on ballot: Scott Rolen (63.2 percent), Curt Schilling (58.6), Billy Wagner (51.0), Jimmy Rollins (9.4), Bobby Abreu (8.6), Ryan Howard (2.0) and Jonathan Papelbon (1.3).

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) January 25, 2022

Curt Schilling falls off the ballot in his 10th and final year of eligibility. Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon fall off the ballot, failing to hit 5 percent threshold in their first year of eligibility.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) January 25, 2022

Scott Rolen is building serious momentum. From 10.2 percent in his first year in 2018 to 63.2 percent in his fifth year in 2022. (He needs 75 percent.) He has five years to go. Jimmy Rollins hopes to follow a similar path.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) January 25, 2022

[bkox]

Results:
Ortiz 77.9%
Bonds 66.0%
Clemens 65.2%
Rolen 63.2%
Schilling 58.6%
Helton 52.0%
Wagner 51.0%
Jones 41.1%
Sheffield 40.6%
Rodríguez 34.3%
Kent 32.7%
Ramírez 28.9%
Vizquel 23.9%
Sosa 18.5%
Pettitte 10.7%
Rollins 9.4%
Abreu 8.6%
Buehrle 5.8%
Hunter 5.3%

— Baseball Reference ( @baseball_ref ) January 25, 2022

[zambonir]

Well, Curt certainly got what he asked for. That is great for Rolen.

[bkox]

Question... Do Bonds and Clemens and Schil all get added to the next veteran's committee vote? Is there a chance Dick Allen gets passed over again with those new names added?

[bkox]

Only major name added next year is Carlos Beltran. And doubt he makes it first ballot. So Rolen is the best shot for next year's ballot

[BostonRoss]

The way I understand it, the Today’s Game committee will vote late this year. They will have a ballot with 10 candidates. It’s hard to imagine that Bonds and Clemens would be left off that ballot. Schilling might even be on it.

Personally, it’s silly to me to have a different group vote on candidates who were rejected just a year earlier. I think that’s how Jack Morris got in. I believe there should be another waiting period.

[Philsmania]

If I understand correctly, the Golden Era Committee does not vote again until 2025. Honestly, I think this was Dick's last best chance, between Schmidt on the Committee and the halo of his recent passing.

[andyb]

I think there might be a small period of time before a player is eligible for the veteran's ballot. Imagine the personalities that vote on that will not vote Bonds and Clemens in as currently constructed. Schilling maybe.

[bkeich]

I don’t like that this is even an option. The point of the veterans committee was to fix mistakes made by the writers or to elect players from early baseball periods that were not really given a chance. The writers clearly have spoken on the worst of the steroid abusers, I believe that a large portion of the fan base agrees. The veterans committee should not be given the chance to overrule that.

Dick Allen is the perfect example of what the veteran’s committee is for. Not only has “newer” evaluations of statistics greatly favored him, but time has passed and the writers, who seemed bias against him because of perceived personality issues, have aged out of voting.

[zambonir]

The whole system stinks. At this point the writers are much better at this than the committees. What they need is a committee of all new and younger people.

A few tidbits from Stark:

Barry Bonds timed out on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot — and now it's about to...

But Bonds ran out of time. He polled at 66 percent when balloting results were announced on Tuesday — a solid two-thirds of the electorate and a major shift from the 36.2 percent he received in his first appearance on the ballot, yet short of the 75 percent required for induction.

And the Hall of Fame essentially starved all remaining oxygen out of Bonds’ candidacy. In 2014, its governing body acted without input from the BBWAA and changed its voting procedures, reducing the maximum number of years on the ballot from 15 to 10 in what was viewed as a response to the glut of steroid-era candidates.

As a result, this was Bonds’ final appearance on the BBWAA ballot. Would five more years of demographic change have been enough to get Bonds over the line? It’s worth noting that over the past four election cycles, 51 of 59 new voters (86 percent) voted for Bonds. Thanks to the Hall’s trimmed down eligibility, we’ll never know.

(snip)

This might be a good time to remind you what happened the last time the Today’s Game Era Committee met in December 2018. A group heavily lobbied by committee members Tony La Russa and White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf swayed the room toward their favored candidate. Harold Baines finished with 12 votes out of 16 — the exact number required for induction. **Baines, who never received more than 6.1 percent of the BBWAA vote, joined Lee Smith, who received support from all 16 members.**

Prior to the Baines/Smith vote, the Today’s Game Era Committee previously met in 2016. That was the vote that resulted in the induction of Bud Selig, the former MLB commissioner who oversaw record profits for the sport during the height of the unchecked steroid era. Selig garnered 15 of 16 votes. He was inducted along with John Schuerholz, the longtime Royals and Braves executive who was a unanimous selection.

Could the same group that voted in Selig be poised to keep Bonds out? Now that would be the height of irony.

[BostonRoss]

I wasn't remembering Jack Morris's situation correctly. He dropped off the ballot in 2014; the Veterans Committee structure was revised in 2016, and Morris was elected in 2018, which was the first time he was eligible under the new structure. It isn't clear whether he would have had to wait to be on the ballot if he had just dropped off in 2017. I do hope there's a waiting period.

[Squire]

Candidly, except in rare cases I struggle to care about HoFs and even All-Star selections. Some exceptions are Richie Allen (whose exclusion legit peeves me) and Curt Schilling (who I am glad is not getting in).

[BostonRoss]

I disagree that the whole system stinks. It's the Veterans Committee system that has pretty much always been broken, and that they continue to change the VC structure speaks to that. The various permutations of the VC are the ones who have voted in the most questionable HOF members, including Baines, Mazeroski, Frankie Frisch's teammates, etc.

I don't agree with every decision that the BBWAA has made regarding who is elected and who isn't, but I think they've done a good job in general. It takes 100 voters to say someone isn't worthy to exclude someone. Over 150 people declined to vote for Bonds and Clemens. I think that reflects the division among baseball people and fans about whether they should be enshrined.

I think it's a spurious argument that Bonds deserves to get in because he only had 10 years on the ballot, and a 2026 electorate would more likely have voted him in. Why is it better to add voters who may not have even been around for Bonds early MVP years in favor of voters who saw Bonds' entire career but may be gone in the next few years?

[andyb]

I think I was wrong. The old system had a 5-year waiting period between the writer's ballot and the veterans committee. Now it looks like all players are eligible on the Today's game committee. Of course that committee has a horrible record. Easy to elect insiders (Selig) and pet causes (Baines) of the 16 members who already skew older. I am guessing they will add some questionable members long before Bonds and Clemens. Maybe in 10-20 years for those guys, though I have little hope until baseball takes a step back from their inconsistent character clause.

IMO Bonds and Clemens and Schilling should all be in. More marginal candidates with steroids on their resume should probably not make it. Undecided on the McGwires and Palmeiro type candidacies as they are close to the line. Would have been in with no steroids but maybe not by a large amount.

[zambonir]

Well, when I said the whole system stinks I was responding Bkeich's idea that the committee is supposed to fix mistakes made by the BBWAA, when as you (and Stark) say that side of the process is actually worse. But that being the case I would still rather see the full electorate get the five more years. Especially as that change seemed specifically targeted at this generation of players.

[andyb]

Maybe Hall of Fame voters should have a retirement date too if part of the problem is how the older generation views the younger generation. It is a tricky question of course. Theoretically older voters are supposed to have a more advanced historical view of the game. But realistically they are applying their morals to a different generation while also not fully understanding sabermetrics.

Harold Baines was a nice player. But he was not even close to being a Hall of Famer. I don't think Jimmy Rollins is quite good enough to be a Hall of Famer, but he was also a much better player than Harold Baines.

[bkox]

Former and current MLB players seem to overwhelmingly feel that Bonds and Clemens etc should be in and there are many saying that living HOF players should get a vote

[VoteForKalas]

This might be a good time to remind you what happened the last time the Today’s Game Era Committee met in December 2018. A group heavily lobbied by committee members Tony La Russa and White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf swayed the room toward their favored candidate. Harold Baines finished with 12 votes out of 16 — the exact number required for induction. Baines, who never received more than 6.1 percent of the BBWAA vote, joined Lee Smith, who received support from all 16 members.

Prior to the Baines/Smith vote, the Today’s Game Era Committee previously met in 2016. That was the vote that resulted in the induction of Bud Selig, the former MLB commissioner who oversaw record profits for the sport during the height of the unchecked steroid era. Selig garnered 15 of 16 votes. He was inducted along with John Schuerholz, the longtime Royals and Braves executive who was a unanimous selection.

Woe, that is beyond outrageous and should not be allowed. Baines, as others have said, was a good player, but no where near a HOF player. The fact he got in because of strong arming by one of the owners and a coach is unjust. I wonder if Baines himself knows what happened.