General MLB Discussion, Winter 2023-24

fish 2024-03-14 01:05:55 UTC #405

For as long as they held out and as many teams interested that is a shockingly poor return for the white Sox.

zambonir 2024-03-14 01:23:13 UTC #406

Because the Padres' system is already stripped? I mean, that's two low Top 100 overall (depending on source) and three of the Padres Top 10, plus 1. For a guy that teams only get for one season (though at least they can get a pick if he doesn't say).

Probably not as much competition as you'd think either. Not us. Not the Dodgers. Supposedly the Rangers but cheaper for them to still bring back Montgomery (or just muddle through until DeGrom is back).

andyb 2024-03-14 18:48:14 UTC #407

Braves sign Adam Duvall for 1/$3 million. Article notes he hit a HR against Suarez the last time they faced off.

andyb 2024-03-18 18:35:30 UTC #408

Fangraphs starting their positional team projections. Phillies shockingly projected at 16th for catcher. That is projecting 2.8 WAR for JT and virtually nothing from backups. It does seem the rest of the league is catching up more with young catchers and there is also a 2-catcher platoon trend that seems to maximize value out of a tandem situation.

gmwannabe 2024-03-18 19:05:57 UTC #409

I strongly disagree with those rankings. too much love, again, for the braves. Average for Murphy is a few percentage points higher than JT's. Slugging percentage about 25 points ahead of JT. Either the braves ranking is too high or the Phillies one is too low based on the stats.
gm

BaseballCat 2024-03-19 10:30:36 UTC #410

zambonir 2024-03-19 12:00:50 UTC #411

I think Murphy might be a lot better than you realize, and JT worse, including defensively (Fangraphs already did a whole story about that, which Andy posted when it came out which presumably factors into it). Last year Murphy was 4.2 WAR and Realmuto 1.5 WAR; of course the Braves also won 14 more games than the Phillies, so that's where almost three of them came from (crudely).

andyb 2024-03-19 13:46:26 UTC #412

I was not surprised by the projection on the Phillies and they do expect JT to bounce back. I am just observing that the rest of baseball is catching up somewhat by using tandem catchers. There used to be only a half dozen good offensive catchers that were also plus on defense. It really looks like tandem catching (and the DH) is letting more catchers play well deeper into their careers. A D'Arnaud for instance might be a negative as a full time catcher. Now with the Braves he is a positive catching 2-3 days a week and DH'ing other days.

The rest of baseball has just figured out a better catching model that does not require one of the 6 humans capable of being plus offensively and defensively over 130 games a year.

Better news at 1B. Phillies are 3rd with Harper even with a neutral defensive rating (which could improve).

andyb 2024-03-19 16:51:29 UTC #413

BTW we are past midnight in Korea, so happy opening day!

zambonir 2024-03-19 20:22:23 UTC #414

The Padres seem to be re-emerging as a team for the Phillies to worry about. I would think right now it's Phillies, them and Arizona as the favorites to finish 4-6, but that could be in any order.

A loooong way from thinking about it for real, but it will be also interesting to ponder whether you'd rather try to beat Atlanta for the third year in a row or finally face the Dodgers in a possible NLDS. Probably the former, familiarity (and time zone/less travel) still counts for a lot.

andyb 2024-03-20 16:59:07 UTC #415

More Fangraphs rankings:
2B: 15th
SS: 4th
3B: 25th

Previous:
C: 16th
1B: 3rd

phillychuck 2024-03-20 17:45:20 UTC #416

Predictions:

RF -- 13
CF -- 27 (Rojas)
LF -- 10 (Marsh)
DH -- 7

Are they ranking pitching?

andyb 2024-03-20 17:53:04 UTC #417

I think they do starters as one group and relievers as a second group. Imagine we are top half in both if not top 10 (at least with starters).

phillychuck 2024-03-20 18:03:34 UTC #418

Predictions: Starters 3, Relievers 10

zambonir 2024-03-20 18:22:02 UTC #419

I would think quite a bit higher than that for the pen, which was #3 in FG WAR last year. Starters were #1.

bkox 2024-03-21 00:40:58 UTC #420

. Two sources told the newspaper that the money involved was in the millions of dollars.

andyb 2024-03-21 17:03:29 UTC #421

Well we are 26th in both of these. Basically they see Marsh as the luckiest batter in baseball last year. .397 BABIP and also sitting against the better LHPs. And they move a bunch of his playing time into CF where his defense does not help much. They even have Rojas slightly above the 650 OPS mark though I guess that is still a huge negative offensively compared to league averages where I think the mean/median offense have increased the last couple of years.

Clearly Fangraphs is more pessimistic than the Phillies. It really looks doubtful we will do any upgrades in the short term while we give Rojas a chance.

bkox 2024-03-22 05:19:49 UTC #422

andyb 2024-03-22 18:49:47 UTC #423

FG not a Castellanos fan (29th). They do like Schwarber at DH (4th). DH ranking is a function of few teams having good DHs as the cumulative WAR is only 2.1.

Pitching rankings still to come.

Docs 2024-03-26 01:45:14 UTC #424

Is anyone following the Ohtani story? I don’t understand his version of the story that he was unaware of the very large money transfers from his account last year.