GDT 9/7/19 Philadelphia Phillies (Smyly) @ New York Mets (Stroman)

[LoneStarPhan]

Nice win with solid pitching and some offense. Need more like this.

[Austinfan]

It's been apparent for weeks that Smyly is finally recovering from his TJ, his velocity is back (and actually better 92-93 again) and his command is slowly coming around. Perfect candidate for low cost 2 year incentive laden deal.

Pivetta looks better out of the pen, 96-98 and the FB sets up his curve, it doesn't have to be perfect when you're hitting the top of the K zone with that stuff.

[andyb]

Not sure I would go that far with Smyly. I think long term he is a guy with average stuff that might put up a 4.50 ERA in good years. His command is definitely better than earlier in the year. But he also throws a bunch of hittable stuff in the zone and tonight he probably got a little lucky.

It was a good signing for a team with clear problems in the rotation. His performance has been colored by half of his games against teams that are awful against LHP. Tonight was probably his best start so give him credit for that. Just not sure he is worth a guaranteed offer of more than $2 or $3 million this offseason.

[bkeich]

Not sure I would go that far with Smyly. I think long term he is a guy with average stuff that might put up a 4.50 ERA in good years. His command is definitely better than earlier in the year. But he also throws a bunch of hittable stuff in the zone and tonight he probably got a little lucky.

I posted something similar to that and then deleted. I think he might actually be better than that.

In the years that he has pitched significantly in the majors he has the following ERAs:
3.99, 2.37, 3.24, 3.93, 1.70 (reliever), 3.11, 4.88, 6.20, 8.42

He had a 2 year layoff which I believe was Tommy John. Honestly, although I havent seen that much from him this year and really he could be completely cooked (35&+ chance), there has to be a reasonable chance that he is still working back to form, and his form was much better than you say (and I thought). 6 seasons of really very good pitching is hard to ignore, I know he is getting older, was hurt and hasnt shown much since coming back from that injury, but I would stick him in the bullpen and see if he cant at least return to some type of form when he doesnt have to throw 80-110 pitches.

We have very little quality pitching and almost none in the pipeline for next year. We are probably at least 6 pitchers away from competing that we really dont know of the name of yet. I fear we are going to have to take some risks with some of these guys and hope.

[andyb]

I think he was better at 25 though than one can project him to be at age 31 or 32. He also has an issue with the home run ball and it is just a different game today than it was 5-7 years ago. Frankly that relief year is enticing to me. Maybe that is the better role for him after 30. If he were to fully buy into being a 2-inning reliever he might fit into the modern bullpen where we clearly need more 2-inning relievers than in the past.

I just don't think he is going to get many significant offers this offseason. I am fine bringing him back and letting him compete for a job. I doubt we would have to pay too much to make that happen. But I also think resurrecting Pivetta and Velasquez might be more important to the club.

[bkeich]

I doubt we would have to pay too much to make that happen. But I also think resurrecting Pivetta and Velasquez might be more important to the club.

Honestly, I would try to do all 3. You are right, Smyly probably is not going to be a prime FA, or even a top 50, but maybe a ML offer a few million would get it done. Stick him in the pen and hope. It has to turn out better than Robertson (which wasnt a bad move, just bad luck). We are going to have to be pretty proactive in getting pitching help because honestly we are starting next year with about 6 pitchers on the staff now (and some of those are highly questionable, like Pivetta and Velasquez) that I would be excited for next year, a bunch of young guys who should get sent down to finish their minor league time, etc.

[bkeich]

(it wont let me edit for some reason, so I will continue my thought)

The fact that we have exactly 2 starting pitchers on the staff for next year right now alone means that we will be delving deep into the FA market or trade market. (Nola and unfortunately Arrieta). Vargas is, well, he isnt good news but he might be news we have to live with. It is never a good sign when you take on a castoff from one of the teams you are competing against and hope that he does as well as he was doing for them when they dumped him.

[EDmuch]

To me Smyly has a higher ceiling than Vargas. Vargas is pretty much a 2 times thru the order pitcher under the best of circumstances. With Smyly there is hope for performances like last nite where he can go 7 innings. I am almost certain they will go after Hamels if he hits the open market. Beyond that is an open question. Eflin can be a serviceable 5th starter. But a rotation of Nola, Hamels, Arrieta, Smyly and Eflin does not shout "CONTENDER" to me.

[flyers19rw]

I'm beginning to wonder about Hamels' future. In his last seven games/starts he's been hit hard- 30.1 IP and a 1.95 WHIP. It may be close to the end of the line for Cole.

[zambonir]

I would definitely be concerned about signing Hamels to a three-year deal. Even two will be risky. Certainly if you sign him and let go of Vargas all it costs is money. But can you also sign Gerrit Cole or someone better for the actual #2 spot?

Not sure there's any urgency to do anything with Smyly. I guess if you want to guarantee him something you could quietly agree to wait until after the Rule V to do so. Or you can just wait and see if he has any better offers. But you can't have an unlimited # of 6th starters/long relievers. We'll lose the three veteran relievers but will probably want to keep some of the guys who are here now (and the injured guys have to go back on the 40).

[bkeich]

I understand peoples hopes to sign Hamels, but if it wasnt him we wouldnt be interested. If it was a former all star who is going to be 36 with the stats he has from the last 3 seasons we wouldnt be particularly interested. He isnt bad exactly, infact he is probably average or slightly better, but the signs of decline are glaring. His strikeouts are an average rate really, his walks are going up alarmingly fast, he is now a hit/inning pitcher and his innings/start are dropping like a rock.

Honestly, although I love Hamels as much as the next guy, he isnt a solution to any problem we have. He would be great on a young staff as a mentor / show these kids how to do this / we really only need a little bit from him. Problem is we need a #2, #3 and #4 starter and I am not sure he is really any of those anymore, especially if you talk about multiple seasons.

I was in the prime of life when we drafted him, now I had to pay someone to mow my lawn because I didnt want to have the stroke it was obviously going to cause. He has aged better, but he has still aged.

[Philsmania]

Hamels needs to reinvent himself into a Jaime Moyer.

[mdougherty12]

Hamels needs to reinvent himself into a Jaime Moyer.

Hamels had reinvented himself as more of a ground ball pitcher prior to the oblique injury (51.1% GB rate in the first half), but it's worn off (41% GB rate in the second half).

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...your ideas about how to deal with Smyly this off season is in my mind precisely the reason the Phillies are still dealing with starting pitching issues after 4 years of Klentak. They always seem to hem and haw and wait for the market to adjust and in the process, lose out on guys they could have possibly signed with a bit more urgency.

I am not advocating for or against Smyly, I prefer to wait and see how he does in his final 4 starts this month. But I will say this...if he does well, shows he is healthy and gives the Phils a feeling they would like him back, then sign him quickly, not wait till after this or that happens...and Smyly likely gets another offer.

I still shudder when thinking about Morton. The Phils had him, liked him and thought about bringing him back. But they hemmed and hawed and he got another offer, took it and the rest is history.

I don't often agree with Austinfan but do when it comes to Smyly. History shows that a pitcher coming back from TJ surgery often takes 2 years or so before he is back to normal. And Smyly's normal would be an asset for the Phils. He seems to like it with the Phils, has certainly done better than Vargas or VV and would probably sign quickly if offered a reasonable deal.

Look, again, not an advocate for signing him necessarily but a complete advocate for deciding quickly, based on how he does the rest of the season and not letting things simply hang till December.

The Phils may get a pass when this season ends [bullpen injuries, loss of their left fielder and leader, blah blah blah] but they will not get a pass next year. There are at least 2-3 organization leadership guys whose jobs likely depend on them winning. So if they think Smyly can help them as a starter, sign him quickly and get on with the rest of their checklist of needs.

[zambonir]

I don't think they will hem and haw on Smyly, I'm just not convinced he's actually better than Pivetta or Eflin or Velasquez or Vargas. In which case he's not worth a 40-man spot or a guaranteed contract. If the Phillies believe otherwise, by all means they should lock him up. And ultimately they will cut ties with one or more of the other four, IMO.

I still shudder when thinking about Morton. The Phils had him, liked him and thought about bringing him back. But they hemmed and hawed and he got another offer, took it and the rest is history.

The Phillies didn't hem and haw on Morton. They had a $9.5 million mutual option on him but they actively decided to let him walk. A blunder for sure but he didn't (and couldn't) have a competing offer at that point. Now, it's possible that Morton had told the team he was going to decline his end of the option, but I kind of doubt it. The fact that he got two years (but less money) from Houston was viewed as lucky (and an overpay) at the time.

Nobody wanted Morton back at the time, he was damaged goods, and about as popular in these parts as Jeremy Hellickson or John Lannan. And of course, while he gives the Phillies some credit for laying some of the groundwork for his turnaround, who knows if he would have pitched that well in Philadelphia - Houston's pitching and analytics program was miles and miles ahead of ours (and still is).

It's also not clear to me that Smyly is better than Vargas, just younger with more upside (no small thing, obviously) and the wild card of coming back from surgery. They've basically been the same for the Phillies (particularly FIP and WHIP).

Not sure we can really learn enough about Smyly just from 3-4 starts but he's looked a little better lately obviously.

Now, odds are the Phillies won't be able to sign a Hamels or Gerrit Cole before the Rule V draft but if they keep Vargas and sign Smyly that means they will only add one starter on the trade or FA market. I think they can do better for a second guy.

[andyb]

There was some talk here about resigning Morton for the option price. It is a little bit revisionist to say that nobody wanted him and he was thought of in the same manner as guys with little stuff like Lannan or Hellickson. And we had cash to burn at that time so the money was definitely not the issue.

If I recall it was not an arm injury so the stuff he showed in the limited time he was healthy seemed a pretty good risk to take on. I think it is more likely that Morton told them he would decline the option for various reasons (not all of them baseball related).

Edit - article from then talking about how the coaching staff wanted to keep him but the front office declined:

Phillies coaching staff reportedly wanted to retain Charlie Morton after 2016

[California_Dreamin]

andyb...yes, there was some talk about bringing Morton back, he had pitched well till he was injured and I do not remember him as being unpopular with the phans. Not even close to Lannan.

[zambonir]

I exaggerate. I do recall the fans thinking he was a bust though. They didn't like the acquisition and when he immediately got hurt it seemed like a bad move. At the time we were a bad team taking a good team's extra parts.

Don't forget the Phillies got saddled with Hellickson's $17 million that year too. A huge error, but understandable they didn't want to keep both of them. And Morton still wouldn't have really helped the 2017 team (except at the trade deadline).

They went with the kids for the other three spots; unfortunately it's the same three kids that are still trying and failing now (along with Lively, that year).

I certainly agree that if there's any chance of Smyly being an asset you can keep him, and it won't be hard.

[Austinfan]

Eflin will be fine, he looks like he did at the start of the season (first 12 starts), then he got a bit lost when they over stressed using his 4 seamer. He's back relying on the 2 seamer, with the 4 seamer now as a change of pace at the top of the zone. But the real key is his changeup is coming around in recent games.

I've given up on Velasquez (no command) and Pivetta (inconsistent curve) as starting pitchers, both would be better served in the bullpen, accepting their role and using their FBs for 1-2 inning stints.

Irvin shouldn't be written off quite yet, he's got a plus changeup, but needs to sharpen the slider to get away with a 90 MPH 2 & 4 seamer. At worst with a better slider and throwing 91-93 in short stints, he has a future as a LOOGY.