GDT 9/6/22 Miami Marlins (Luzardo) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Nola Aa)

[andyb]

We also have to start using Robertson like a protected 1-inning closer with Seranthony out. The outings are tougher and there is little confidence in anyone else, so we keep letting him throw 30-40 pitches. With no other options he really needs to be a 1-inning pitcher only.

We also need to use Alvarado a bit more. He is actually pretty fresh and we need to get 3 outs from him rather than 1. That probably means the bullpen should have a 3rd left-handed pitcher ideally, but the main point is that he may be our second best reliever now after Robertson. Hand seems a little shaky of late and Brogdon's command has been poor in recent outings.

It is kind of amazing that the loss of one reliever (Seranthony) pushes everyone into bigger roles and consequently into lesser performances.

[Philsmania]

It is kind of amazing that the loss of one reliever (Seranthony) pushes everyone into bigger roles and consequently into lesser performances.

Remember in the late-'90's and 2000 how the likes of Jeff Brantley and Mike Jackson going down at the very back end seemingly sent dominoes tumbling in the bullpen. See also Jose Mesa completely melting down to uselessness with his epic crisis of confidence in 2003 (Rheal Cormier prevented that bullpen from becoming a complete disaster). And, more recently, when Hector Neris's annual 2-3 week crisis of confidence would kick in and would, in turn, trigger a bad domino effect in the Phillies' bullpen.

[zambonir]

The loss of Knebel was also significant as far as the domino effect. He was pitching plenty of 7th and 8th innings and had 0 earned runs and 0.656 WHIP over 10 innings in July. Got lit up in that one game in August - possibly was already hurt - before going away soon after.

Just remember that every time Robertson, Hand or Brogdon struggles, at least it's not Familia.

[zambonir]

I’m more so talking about moving runners over and getting the guy home from third with less than 2 outs.

I hear you but teams just don't really emphasize moving the runner over in the three true outcome game, especially with shifts. And the Phillies are also hitting .291 with runners on (in general, not just in scoring position) and less than two outs, which is second in the league. I don't know what they are doing with a man on third and and less than two outs specifically, but I imagine it probably isn't actually bad, nor will the difference between the best team and the 15th best team be that huge. In any case I'd still rather see them get hits (or walks) in that situation than sacrifices or fielder's choices.

[allentown]

The Phillies need to use their entire pitching staff. They can't continue to overuse the guys they trust. This is a reason for our September collapses. It's the starters as well as the relievers. Nola is now within just a few IP of his 2021 total. He has thrown less than 90 pitches in a game only once since his 94 pitch outing on April 29. That was his 83-pitch bomb in AZ, after 104 and 101 pitch games. Appel pitlched reasonably well, then was exiled back to AAA, for example. Coming of injury, Seranthony wasn't a horse one should expect to ride hard.

[zambonir]

Easier to say than do. We've seen Bellati and Nelson struggle when taken out of their roles too, and Coonrod remains a question mark. But I agree: the result is the same either way, but at least if you use the less-trusted reliever and he falters your good one is more likely to be better next time.

Appel's struggled big-time in AAA lately, he's no particular answer, and simply wasn't picked over Sanchez or Nittoli now (or over whoever they replaced him with at the time). But then you have to use those guys. (Unfortunately, they have used Sanchez, which might be another reason why Thomson prefers his trusted arms).

[allentown]

We've seen Bellati and Nelson struggle when taken out of their roles to

I confess to a belief that these 'roles' are a mistaken concept, but note that Bellati was very good last night and overall has pitched to a quite good 3.5 ERA. Coorod has hardly pitched, but he and Nelson have not awful roughly 4.5 ERAs.

[zambonir]

I mean, "roles" are not "innings" but clearly in the Cotham/Thomson era they are doing much more sophisticated leverage and match-up stuff. Except, I reckon that once the bullpen gets short, you have no choice but to just use what you have.

Nelson has a 4.57 ERA on the season but a 6.10 ERA in the last 28 days. WHIP - not great to begin with - jumped from 1.410 to 1.548.

Bellatti has been about the same (or even better) over the past month vs. overall but anecdotally it feels like he had a few tougher outings recently (most recently in Arizona and also against the Mets). But all relievers have the odd tough outing, and the whole team had trouble against both those clubs!

[andyb]

I am not sure I trust Coonrod with late inning work these days unless there are no other options. He has not really pitched any meaningful innings and the command looks as shaky as last year but with a little less velocity. Understandable of course. He probably needs a month to build back up and we just don't have that now.

Nelson's velocity is fine. He might be losing a little command as the season workload increases, but I think his struggles more relate to long outings and cumulative workload.