GDT 9/22/20 Philadelphia Phillies (TBD) @ Washington Nationals (Espino)

[zambonir]

Not much value to drafting higher when we still can't get into the Top 10. Or to finishing with 27 wins instead of 29. Or even 31.

Hopefully finishing 7th and getting lucky against the Cubs or Braves would not change the course of the franchise any more than getting swept by the Dodgers or not making it. The kind of changes you want are still three years away, even if they fire Klentak they'll hire a Gillick or Dombrowski type to try and win, not someone to re-do everything Klentak did.

[Philsmania]

Remero was great until the last couple of games, 1 IP, 6 ER.

[allentown]

If the Phillies FINALLY managed to earn a winning record, that would have been a welcome sign of progress. If they back into an expanded playoff field with a losing record of only 28 or 29 wins, I see that as no accomplishment at all and am with AF in choosing the better draft pick. I'm cool if they make the playoffs with a .500 record, but a losing record -- that would be totally hollow.

[andyb]

I'd rather make the playoffs than pick 2-3 places higher. Do we really think drafting 12th versus 16th means that much? An organization that has completely collapsed in the second half of both 2018 and 2019 is on the verge of doing that within one week this year. Getting used to losing seems to be their best skill.

[LoneStarPhan]

Since higher draft order didn't seem to do much for them in the past several years, I am on the fence about this issue. Frankly, I really don't need to see the Phillies blow leads in the post season to know that they need some revamping for next season. OTOH, once in the playoffs, maybe they win some games and end up looking promising. So we will see.

[zambonir]

Winning 31 games instead of 30 is actually a better winning percentage than winning 82 instead of 81, but neither feels especially impressive.

But I wouldn't pronounce making the playoffs hollow until they actually played the series, and even then, I don't see the downside to giving these players their first postseason games, even if they get rocked. Look at 2007. That team seemed special but it turned out the Mets were just really bad and Colorado was even hotter than we were. But it was still a learning experience. And it would be even more of one this season when we haven't seen any other NL teams.

Even with a lesser pitcher on the mound you can win any game on any given day, even against the Dodgers. If memory serves we played them all right last year, and some of our best play this year has been against the best teams (Atlanta, NY, Toronto). Maybe that will continue this weekend.

[Austinfan]

Problem with making the playoffs is it will encourage them to stand pat and not make major changes.
Treading water until they get tired and drown.

[andyb]

I don't think one or two games will change anyone's opinion about their mediocre roster.

[zambonir]

Last year people wanted them to fail so the coach would get fired and that didn't help either.

If anything missing the playoffs will probably make them be more aggressive about signing JT and pushing hard to win next year. If they'd cruised to the 7th seed and then pulled off a first-round upset they'd have a much better product to market even if he'd left. Winning always sells more tickets than stars (and both is best of all, of course). But who knows if there are even tickets to sell.

Maybe missing the playoffs gets Klentak fired but I don't think a new GM will change the direction of the franchise. They will cling to the notion that this is like 2006, a new voice and a few more tweaks can still reach the promised land. Gonna need 2-3 more years of failure to move into another rebuild. If that's how it's headed hopefully they realize it a little sooner, rather than repeating the mistake of 2013-2014.

[Austinfan]

You see this mistake throughout sports, a team rebuilds enough to get to .500, and then focuses on the playoffs instead of continuing the rebuild until they've build up the talent base to where they have enough cheap talent they can carry a bad contract or two (half your FAs won't pan out) and enough surplus talent that they can make trades without mortgaging the future.

Sixers did that by canning Hinkie and destroyed their chance at a championship.
Flyers fortunately hired a GM who didn't diverge much from Hextall's blueprint (2nd rd pick was the biggest asset spend and was recouped in the draft, Hayes was a 27 year old signing).
Roseman is in a different situation, with a window closing he tried to get back, now it's time to pay the piper.

[zambonir]

You're not wrong, but baseball is also different from all those sports. In hindsight they would have been better off holding on to Alfaro and Crawford and Sixto. But they also, if anything, were too patient with most of the other players acquired during the rebuild, and when you add the 2016 draft onto that, there wasn't much else they could do. A more aggressive tank, maybe even in 2018 (i.e. don't sign Santana and Arrieta) wouldn't have hurt. They were also supposed to be sellers in 2018 (flip Hunter and Neshek, maybe move on from Cesar) but they couldn't resist hovering around contention when it happened.

[Austinfan]

Baseball is like hockey, b/c it takes 3-5 years for prospects to make it, you have to rebuild by trades for prospects who are a year or two away as well as draft picks/(low minor prospects) to build up your talent pipeline. Which means it takes longer than football or the NBA.

Thing is you can't half-ass a rebuild, either you go whole hog and sell assets high, or you straddle the fence, mired in mediocrity and watch your best assets depreciate. A 1993 happens once every couple decades.