GDT 9/15/19 Boston Red Sox (Porcello) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Vargas)

[LoneStarPhan]

Home stand ends 2-4. Disappointing. Now on the road for 11 games against tough opponents

3 games in Atlanta.
3 games in Cleveland.
5 games in Washington..

Realistically, the Phillies are done for 2019. The season will go down as a disappointment.

Last season started off so much better than I dared hope, but the total collapse in the last third of the season left things in flux. The Phillies showed a significant improvement for the season, but it sure didn't feel as good as it would have if the team hadn't played like the worst team in MLB for a significant period to end the season.

Then the 2019 season started off with great optimism and the team was in first place into June. Now they will have to step up to avoid finishing in 4th place in the division. It cannot be called anything less than another collapse. They go on the road trip 4 games above .500 and in fourth place in the NL East.

I certainly hope they can do well enough in the remaining 14 games to stay above .500 and improve a little over the record of last season (80-82). They have been fairly consistent of late in playing about .500 ball and hopefully will at least come close to that over the remaining 14 games. If they can win 5 of the 14, they will end at .500, 81-81. I sure hope they can exceed that by several wins, but regardless, I personally will be disappointed in this season.

I certainly do think they were hurt badly by an uncommon number of players on the IL for extended periods this season. Yet I have to question whether or not they would have been good enough to win the NL East even if all those players had stayed healthy. Frankly, the future doesn't look certain by any means.

[LoneStarPhan]

Small point on the Phillies in general. I have no idea why Nick Williams is in the doghouse, but there is no reason for them to call him up and give him one PH AB and then sit him for a guy like Jose Pirela (AAA OPS of 785 compared to 955 for Williams).

It is kind of indisputable that the Phillies are doing a poor job of getting the most out of some of their young prospects (especially non-white young players like Crawford, Franco, Herrera, etc.). It has happened too often for the blame to be always placed upon the player. The team needs to share some responsibility here. Williams may not be great, but he is clearly a better player than Jose Pirela and it would be completely understandable if he were annoyed at how he has been treated by the Phillies this year.

Cannot agree more with this. Just another reason that I have now reached the opinion that Kapler must be replaced.

[EDmuch]

I agree Andy B, There is something unsettling about the way the team treats young players of color. I am not talking about a franchise that acts like it did in the Jackie Robinson era. But something just does not seem right about the handling of young players of color.

[Patchmk88]

Hope we tank for a good draft pick, a Kapler firing, and a warning shot for Klentak to get it together

[zambonir]

I think it's pretty obvious why Williams is in the doghouse. When he got sent down Boras had to send one of his employees to get him to report to Allentown on time. And then he still asked for a few days off to go back to Texas again. And I'm pretty sure he took advantage of another 72-hour window the next time he was called up and sent down again. As is his right, and I'm not saying the Phillies are right to hold a grudge either. But you didn't see that from Franco. I don't recall any pitcher ever doing it.

In any case, this is another thing where Klentak=Kapler and vice-versa. If it's not the 'doghouse' then it is simply a decision that he has no future here, and is only up as a courtesy (major league salary, service time, etc.).

You might think they'd play Nick Williams every day from here on out (as well as Franco) just to see what they have. Haseley too, for different reasons. I suppose it's possible they are evaluating Pirela for the 40-man as well, I believe he and Miller would have to be tendered right?

The Phillies' racial history is well-documented though you'd like to think a page was turned on that as the Green/Giles family tree recedes into history too. Crawford is the one that baffles me; I can't say they've really mistreated Franco, Williams or Herrera though, and they did all lose their jobs on merit. If anything Klentak deciding all three of those guys were worth keeping was one of his biggest mistakes as GM.

[andyb]

The issue is that they have a really poor record in developing young players of color. If they had issues with Williams they should have traded him before they depressed his value. Results matter and developing the talent you have is part of that.

[schillingfan]

The issue is that they have a really poor record in developing young players of color. If they had issues with Williams they should have traded him before they depressed his value. Results matter and developing the talent you have is part of that.

I was thinking that, at least for position players. We seem to have some talent at pitcher. But the only people of color who play positions are Segura and McCutcheon and they are veteran trades. All our player prospects seem to be white. Kingery, Ashley, Bohm, Moniak, Scott.

[zambonir]

We seem to have trouble developing prospects of any kind though!

Also can't really blame this regime for Williams, Franco, even Crawford, though last year still was very curious with JP. If anything this regime has washed its hands of every player they inherited. And they're not so much developing or not developing them as making internal scouting decisions about them that may or may not be wrong (regarding Williams and Franco, I doubt they are wrong. Regarding Crawford, we'll see).

Honestly when you look at Williams and Franco in the minor leagues, they were never going to be stars. Franco was overhyped because he was all the Phillies had. He never adjusted to become a good major league player after one hot season, which at that point is a different phase of development. And his defense was always suspect. We also hoped Williams might turn into a great everyday corner OF because he was the biggest offensive name in the Hamels deal, but he was maybe third or four on the list of guys we would have really liked from Texas. Bat off the bench always seemed more likely than him producing enough offense to make up for defense. Did the Phillies fail to make those two guys better or is just that who they were always going to be, especially at 25 and older?

The Phillies issue - and the fan and media issue - with non-white players is a longstanding thing of course. But we're kind of randomly selecting here. For every Brown there's been an Asche, for every Franco a Ruf or Joseph. There's also Altherr and Quinn, both probably failed more by their own bodies than the team. And of course there are very few African-American players so they all stand out more (whether failures or successes).

And if we'd had this conversation last July we'd consider Alfaro, Herrera, Hernandez and even Williams himself to be success stories (and Herrera surely was one).

I really wonder about Boras with regards to Williams. He couldn't really force the Phillies to trade Williams but he had to know the combination of Cutch and Harper was going to kill his client's value.

[allentown]

Yes it's very old history, but it's a page which won't and can't be turned until the Phillies organization is kind and demonstrably welcoming and giving a full shot to young players of color. This is an organization which has basically expected their young players of color to be oreos. I remember the concerns about Rollins personality and the music he liked, which went well beyond his rookie season. The Phillies have always been too much of a 'young kids need to pay their dues before we will truly accept them, regardless of color, and need the temperament of a 30s or late 20s-year-old veteran to be accepted. Until those dues are paid, you'll be messed around and not truly respected. I'm not sure that ever worked well. It works less well with the recent younger generations, who have become progressively more used to coddling as they grew up. It doesn't matter if we'd have considered Alfaro, Herrera, Hernandez, and Williams to be successes in July of last season, the team was still pickier about their behavior and called them on things other players weren't called on. Alfaro's not as good as Realmuto, but was a solid player. The Phillies couldn't wait to see his back, I think believing Realmuto would improve the pitching. Surprise! It wasn't Alfaro, the pitching just wasn't that good, as has been shown this year, complete with a lot of back-sliding.

[andyb]

If we decide a player is not right for the team we should trade them a year too soon and not a year too late. It is way to simple an answer to stay an organization can wash its hands of all the players and prospects they inherit. There are always a mix anyway. The organization is tasked with developing whatever young players they have. If they did not like Williams and Crawford and Franco and Herrera and Velasquez and Pivetta they should have traded them near the top of their value for players we like better. That is on Klentak. His task was to work with the resources he had (which were substantial including a highly rated farm system). It wasn't to assume they are all not his type of players and then fail to get value out of him.

The race question is tricky. The organization is not racist. They probably have gotten most of the old school types out by now anyway. It is probably one of organizational support. Who knows? It is just an apparent pattern and yes, Crawford was case number one illustrating it. Failing to get proper value for Crawford (and the whole series of mistakes that led us to invest in Santana then throw him away for very little) could be the trade that really hurts this franchise in the short term. Again the question is not whether we should have traded them. In many ways the Segura deal made logical sense. But we traded two really good players to correct Klentak's initial mistake and ended up an inferior team.

[zambonir]

Up and down the organization it's hard to say the current team is prone to the same sins as previous regimes/Phillies history. And Kapler certainly doesn't strike me as a stodgy white conservative (to the point where the old white Philly media had to pressure him into benching players for not "hustling"). But hey, we are still owned by the Mainline Moneyed Morons that are alive (RIP Tigger). And MacPhail is from the old school.

I think Klentak still got good value for Crawford. Crawford's value wasn't that high once he cooled off in AAA, and he played poorly/was hurt last year. That they didn't handle him perfectly doesn't change that.

And when did we decide he didn't like Herrera? He signed him to that contract, the guy was our starting CF this year, things just went bad (on and off the field). Same with Pivetta (who was arguably our #2 starter on Opening Day) and Velasquez (who is actually Klentak's).

I also think Klentak planned to replace Franco with Machado, clearly. His owner had other ideas, and by the time that played out there was no trade market (for a player of limited value to begin with) and no replacement option.

Most teams in this league value all players almost the same these days. There was no rival GM who could be tricked into thinking Maikel Franco was finally going to turn it around this year.

If we think they waited too long to trade Crawford (or Williams) does that mean they should trade Haseley? I think it's still a possibility. According to today's Athletic story most teams still see him as a 4th OF. He either has to surprise with the bat (to play LF) or the glove (to play CF). But if other teams only see him as a 4th OF you're not even getting good enough value for him versus waiting another year to see where he goes. It's just a question of whether he can do that on a team trying to win the NL East right now.

[andyb]

I think Klentak still got good value for Crawford. Crawford's value wasn't that high once he cooled off in AAA, and he played poorly/was hurt last year. That they didn't handle him perfectly doesn't change that.

Unless they depressed his value by not playing (like at SS when both he and Kingery were healthy and in the lineup). And Santana (currently at 4.6 WAR) WAS IN THAT DEAL TOO. They depressed his value too by either playing him out of position or signing him in the first place when the defensive hit for playing Hoskins was greater than anticipated.

In isolation (need to trade Santana, Crawford value depressed) the deal looks OK. But that was because we traded the pieces after their value had decreased.

If they don't think Haseley is a legit CF they probably should trade him this offseason as one in a series of moves that brings in a true CF or starter. They are paid big bucks to judge players correctly and get the most out of them. Klentak has not gotten the most out of the talent he inherited in the organization. It does not matter if they did not fit his vision. It is about generating value for each piece. He has kind of backed us in the corner and made using cash our only real option to improve in the offseason and that is a slippery slope to be on.

[David_Criss]

The one good thing about todays game is that it saves the Phillies $6,000,000 next year, right? They wont seriously entertain keeping Vargas for 2020....will they?.....can they?

[andyb]

I'd probably go for Smyly at $2 or $3 million than Vargas at $6 million. Not sure either of them is really a good back end starter these days. Their value is built around their low cost. Since Irvin has pitched better of late I am not sure that either Smyly or Vargas is much better than Irvin. I don't think Irvin is more than a 5th starter type either, but at least he is inexpensive.

[Philsmania]

Vargas...another year, another trade deadline acquisition flop.

Seriously, since Pence, have we picked up anybody at the deadline who has neither bombed for us nor got hurt (like Bruce and Dickerson in terms of the latter)?

And, Alfaro as an asset who helped get us Realmuto looks like the only "sell" acquisition who has helped us long term.

[allentown]

Pence didn't help us. We would have walked away with the division without him and then he wasn't good in the playoffs, wasn't good the start of the next season, then he was gone. At most, we were a 102 win team with Pence and a 100 win without and an underperformer in post-season with. If you're going back to Pence days, I'll say the guy who actually helped was the pitcher we traded for -- Joe Blanton (?).

[Philsmania]

Pence didn't help us. We would have walked away with the division without him and then he wasn't good in the playoffs, wasn't good the start of the next season, then he was gone. At most, we were a 102 win team with Pence and a 100 win without and an underperformer in post-season with. If you're going back to Pence days, I'll say the guy who actually helped was the pitcher we traded for -- Joe Blanton (?).

But at least Pence did well after we got him. And, I would say Oswalt pitched very well for us down the stretch after we got him in 2010 (7-1, 1.74 ERA). Phillies turned on the afterburners and ended up running away with the division after they got him. So, I count him as a good stretch drive acquisition even though he started to fade in 2011.

[Philsmania]

I was thinking of all the guys who have done more harm than good with poor play/pitching down the stretch after we got them. Like Wendell and Cook in 2001, Mike Williams in 2003, Todd Jones in 2004, Cabrera, Bour and the basket of foregetables last season. Vargas fits right in with those guys.

[zambonir]

Nobody expected much from Vargas. You get a guy at a deadline to upgrade your rotation or patch a hole, not to put a band-aid on a gushing arterial wound.

We still made probably the single best trade deadline acquistions in Dickerson, except he was hurt when we got him and he's hurt now too.

I was for keeping Vargas because it's only money, but he has shown less and less, and he's quite old, and the Mets paid the buyout already. They got Vargas and Smyly because at the time, going with unproven starters making major league minimum wasn't actually working for them. But any of our failed starters (including Irvin as Andy notes) can probably fiill that 6th starter role just as well as Vargas. Once we opt out on him he might not get a major league deal.