I dont think we have much of a chance at the wild card, but we pretty much need to win every one of Nola's starts because no one else is even slightly reliable as a starter. He has had a good, but uneven season, we need him to dominate as he has at times and then maybe win 2/3 of the other games somehow and hope.
We are 3 behind Chicago with MIL in the middle. 16 games left, Nola starts 4 and then win 8 of the other 12 and maybe 12-4 gets it done.