GDT 9/13/22 Philadelphia Phillies (Falter) @ Miami Marlins (Alcantara, S)

[kikutaro]

Nick Fortes

Swinging strike (84.9 mph slider)
Ball (82.9 mph knuckle curve)
Ball (83.7 mph knuckle curve)
In play, out(s) (85.4 mph slider)

Nick Fortes grounds out softly, first baseman Rhys Hoskins to pitcher David Robertson.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8	0
Miami Marlins	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	1

---

Current Batters

Philadelphia Phillies

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber LF	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	.213	.312	.480	.792
Rhys Hoskins 1B	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	.250	.338	.470	.808
Bryce Harper DH	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.307	.383	.561	.944
J.T. Realmuto C	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.273	.345	.461	.806
Alec Bohm 3B	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.293	.325	.414	.739
Bryson Stott SS	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.233	.294	.361	.655
Jean Segura 2B	4	1	3	0	0	1	0	.289	.343	.412	.755
Nick Maton RF	3	1	1	2	0	1	1	.286	.400	.673	1.073
Brandon Marsh CF	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	.234	.284	.365	.649
Bailey Falter P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Jose Alvarado P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Seranthony Dominguez P								.000	.000	.000	.000
David Robertson P								.000	.000	.000	.000

Miami Marlins

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Miguel Rojas SS	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	.235	.283	.328	.611
Brian Anderson RF	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.230	.321	.369	.690
Garrett Cooper 1B	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	.256	.332	.404	.736
Nick Fortes DH	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	.241	.314	.406	.720
Charles Leblanc 2B	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.280	.319	.430	.749
Jacob Stallings C	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.218	.286	.292	.578
Bryan De La Cruz CF	3	1	1	1	0	1	1	.211	.261	.348	.609
Jordan Groshans 3B	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Luke Williams LF	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	.234	.286	.315	.601
JJ Bleday LF	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.177	.297	.333	.630
Sandy Alcantara P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Tommy Nance P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Cole Sulser P								.000	.000	.000	.000

Current Pitchers

Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Bailey Falter	6.0	4	1	1	0	4	1	88-58	3.80
Jose Alvarado	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	12-7	3.65
Seranthony Dominguez	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9-7	1.57
David Robertson	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14-8	2.34

Miami Marlins

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Sandy Alcantara	7.0	8	2	2	1	4	1	103-71	2.43
Tommy Nance	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	13-9	4.54
Cole Sulser	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12-9	4.96

[EDmuch]

So is Falter now our Number 3 starter?

[Patchmk88]

What a win!

[LoneStarPhan]

Both Dominguez and Robertson give us 1-2-3 innings and the Phillies needed both. I expect that Dominguez will get some 9th inning save situation calls but so will Robertson. I think the key is to try to not over use either of them. Of course, more offense will help with that. Cannot say enough about Falter's start and the scoreless inning from Alvarado. Six solid innings, one run on four hits, from Falter, followed by three 1-2-3 innings from the bullpen. Phillies' pitchers did not walk a single batter tonight.

Super pitching from both sides tonight. The Phillies are lucky enough to have gotten their home run with a runner on base.

Always great to win the first game of a series. Especially on the road.

[zambonir]

It's a good question. But not one they have to answer for a while. The one they will have to answer is who loses their role when Wheeler comes back?

[zambonir]

I will add... at this point I go to Falter and suggest that if he wants to start a playoff game, he needs to get vaccinated (they can't require of course, but they can insinuate). Possibly he has, but I doubt it. Just imagine him testing positive in Houston, for instance. Of course anyone can, but your odds are worse and your window longer if you haven't had any vaccinations (and it sure would be nice to know most of them will be boosted for the post-season too).

[Austinfan]

They've developed a nice bench with upside, Stubbs, Sosa, Maton, Vierling, and Hall/Sands as the 5th man.

That will allow them to start an OF of De La Cruz, Rojas and Muzzioti next year, who'd have thought these three would surpass Ortiz, Rudolph, Haseley and Moniak? Maybe the Phillies should just give up on big money LA players and never take an OF in the 1st rd.

[andyb]

Maybe the Phillies should just give up on big money LA players and never take an OF in the 1st rd.

Which would be a pretty stupid strategy. The key is spending money wisely in Latin America, not stopping to spend money which is what you seem to advocate (and if you advocate spending the money across 50 different players then I've got a bridge to sell you because that is not how markets work).

And I am perfectly happy with Crawford as our top pick this year. Pat Burrell (and previously the infamous JD Drew) were pretty good picks. We have just as bad a track record of pitching number ones as outfielder number ones. The last two picks are doing better of course. That makes me think Barber is smart though, and not that we should draft HS pitching every single year.

Ortiz is still a decent prospect. He'll be starting at AAA next year. What De La Cruz has done in recent months is great, but it really does not place him above Ortiz yet. Neither are top 100 prospects. Neither is likely a top 10 prospect for us. But each is a prospect because their power is a real tool and their defense is decent.

[allentown]

I would focus on pitching in the first round. We do very well with pitchers. Over multiple GMs, managers, scouting and development directors, the Phillies have failed almost totally in drafting and developing OFs. Worse, the top picks, with the exception of Burrell who wasn't truly an OF, have fared worse than the third round and later picks. Top LA $ no more successful. Is it something in the water? It is astonishing for an organization to have such a dreadful record with OFs. Bourn was the best and the development staff was far from enamored with him. It confounds me that the organization has been unable, for decades, to determine what they are doing wrong and fix it.

It is uncanny how much better the team has done with first round pitchers, both H.S. and college, compared to OFs.

Btw, I take your point on Ortiz, Haseley, and Moniak being passed, but you must have been wearing really rosy glasses if you had hope for I assume you meant Randolph. He was pretty much the same early bust as LGJ, except for the over-eating by LGJ. Randolph's flop may be on the development side: he had a good rookie season in GCL: downhill after his first FIL and full-season ball.

[andyb]

I would focus on taking the best player available in the first round. We appear to have done that because the market shifted against pitching (especially high school) because of the injury risk. We seem to have exploited an untapped resource in pitching because teams downgraded players too much because of the risk (which is still there for our best prospects BTW).

Our number one picks (especially the ones in the top half of the first round) are such a small sample size that it is hard to generalize. Barber seems to value tools and high end performance. That seems a good strategy to me. Almaraz valued polish and hit tool more with lower ceiling theoretically higher floor players. Randolph was always a horrible pick once he was moved to LF right after he was drafted. He never had the bat to be just a LF and clearly was a scouting mistake. Haseley was always a very low ceiling high floor player that seemed like he was drafted a few spots early. Bohm was really an average pick at best because of the lack of defense. Moniak was another high floor pick that seems to have a lower floor than anticipated.

Barber may just be better at this than Almaraz and Wolever (Arbuckle was also better than those 2 though from a different era). I have more reasons to think Crawford and Boyd were good picks based on Barber's track record more than anything else.

[zambonir]

There is no one way, or even one trend over multiple presidents, front offices, scouting directors, and development regimes. The only trend is that the franchise hasn't been great at it overall (or great overall) for all but a few blips over the past 50 years. But you still have to do a little of everything. And you still have to use your first round pick on first-round talent. The fact that lower-$ LA players have worked out doesn't prove anything about bigger $ players or first-round picks any more than the fact that Rhys Hoskins and Ryan Howard worked out.

Kind of ironic that Wolever actually made his best picks (Nola/Hoskins, Crawford) just before getting fired. And brutal that Almaraz really wasn't better. Which is still on Gillick more than the next regime.

It was interesting to see Ochart kind of pat himself on the back as he announced his departure, and possibly not without reason. While the system's still not there yet and the major league core is still free agents, who actually expected to see a starting nine with four homegrown players this year (even if Vierling probably isn't a starter)? Plus a catcher and CF that they got with prospects.

[julio]

They've developed a nice bench with upside, Stubbs, Sosa, Maton, Vierling, and Hall/Sands as the 5th man.

That will allow them to start an OF of De La Cruz, Rojas and Muzzioti next year..

I assume you're talking about the AAA outfield here? You didn't say that, and there's nothing upthread that would suggest this is part of any ongoing minor-league discussion... but that seems to be the only conclusion I can draw. But how does that really relate to a Nick Maton discussion?

[zambonir]

However obtusely, I think his point as far as that tangent goes is that if Maton makes the major league team as someone who can play the OF (and, for now, hits like one) they won't need Rojas or Muzziotti on the big league bench. Or a 5th man who can play the OF though I don't think there will really be a 5th man.

[flyers19rw]

JMO but baseball is a special sport which calls for unique skills in a player for them to succeed. In the past, too many of the Phillies top selections were chosen for being "athletes" not necessarily baseball players. CIP, and there are many others, but here, Dom Brown. Probably would have been an NFL wide receiver but didn't have the requisite skills to master baseball. Barber seems to know what baseball skills are and has his scouts looking for youngsters with them.

[Philsmania]

JMO but baseball is a special sport which calls for unique skills in a player for them to succeed. In the past, too many of the Phillies top selections were chosen for being "athletes" not necessarily baseball players. CIP, and there are many others, but here, Dom Brown. Probably would have been an NFL wide receiver but didn't have the requisite skills to master baseball. Barber seems to know what baseball skills are and has his scouts looking for youngsters with them.

Brown? His career progressed very nicely until he got that callup in August of 2010, at which point his career seemingly turned on a dime. At the MLB level, the opposition seemingly discovered his deepest, darkest flaws and exploited them and he was never able to make the adjustments. But, otherwise, yes, in the Wolever era, they seemed enthralled with athletes--HS kids who played wide receiver in the fall and blew away defensive backs or score highlight reel slam dunks playing basketball in the winter--with the hope that they could learn baseball skills. Gillick had something to do with that as well, talking about how he pulled that off with certain players with the Blue Jays though I forget the examples he cited from his Blue Jays days. Unfortunately, most of these athletes couldn't learn those skills and flamed out in the minors.

And, I am drawing a blank but who is CIP?

[allentown]

I would focus on taking the best player available in the first round.

A good idea, provided you have the organizational competency to identify who is the best player available. In picking LGJ and Randolph, the Phillies adequately demonstrated that they cannot effectively identify a H.S. OF as BPA. Some of that, as well as Ortiz, may also be partially the fault of choosing for perceived organizational need.

[allentown]

I think CIP probably stands for case-in-point, rather than a specific draftee.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, I wasn't clear. It allows them to marinate three prospects in AAA ball next year without rushing them, the way they did with Stott and Moniak and Haseley and . . . Rushing prospects often sets them back a season or two.

The rule of thumb is 2000+ minor league AB, 2500 for LA players, maybe a little less than 2000 for a three year college start who plays one or two seasons of summer wood bat ball. Hitters especially can use those AAA reps where they face a lot of junk ballers who nibble - after seeing the live arms in AA that might lack solid secondary pitches.

And depth at the top has a trickle down effect on the whole farm system, Bohm, Stott, Sosa, Maton means you can let IFs marinate longer b/c you don't feel the need to rush them in case of injury.

[phillychuck]

Is the rule of thumb different with the minor league re-organization? I think it might be a bit lower now.

[julio]

I think CIP probably stands for case-in-point, rather than a specific draftee.

That’s as good a guess as any, allentown!

(Although I liked “Crisis Intervention Program” too!)